Following the recent world crisis as a result of COVID-19 pandemic, the world has suffered tremendous losses in almost all market sectors that form the global economy. In this light, the researchers have decided to carry out a market research in one of the sectors of the global economy which is the commodity market. That market has a booming characteristic specifically the Ethiopian coffee export market. Therefore, it will be the project point of focus.
The capstone project focuses on analysing 30 years of data and the current year before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as during the period it has existed. The research used a couple of modern day tools to gather and analyse the data which has been collected from the Ethiopian Coffee Authorities. Tools such as Python and Excel have been used to develop a model for prediction and to test the hypothesis such as the ARIMA, Simple Linear Regression as well as the Paired T-test. Correlation and Covariance analyses have been carried out to test the relationship between the Ethiopian coffee market and the global economy participants such as the US and China to evaluate the degree of relationship and to find out whether the COVID-19 Pandemic has any effects on the coffee market in Ethiopia. The research result shows that the Ethiopian coffee export market will double its revenue for the coming 10 years.
The project find out COVID-19 has a significant negative relationship with the coffee market but as compared with other countries disasters, the coffee export market in Ethiopia has been slightly impacted, there was still significant growth in the market during this period due to governmental policies put in place to protect the market from crashing or suffering from very heavy losses over time. It can be considered as a role model for other world countries in combating the pandemic to protect the market.
Table of Contents
1. CHAPTER ONE
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Project Track
1.3 Problem statement
1.4 The Goals and objectives of the study:
1.5 Specific objectives:
2. CHAPTER TWO
2.1 Literature Review
2.2 Current Situation Regarding COVID-19 Pandemic
2.3 Current Coffee Market concerning COVID-19 and forecast
2.4 Coffee Export Market in Ethiopia
2.4.1 Export and local consumption
2.4.2 Pricing
2.5 The expected investor's behaviour and new market characteristics caused by COVID-19
2.6 Price Volatility of the coffee market
2.7 The relevance of this research as compared with other research (Empirical Evidences)
2.8 Competitors Analysis in Ethiopian coffee market
2.8.1 Strenghts
2.8.2 Weaknesses
2.8.3 Opportunities
2.8.4 Threats
3. CHAPTER THREE
3.1Method
4. CHAPTER FOUR
4.1 Data Analysis and Interpretation
4.1.1 Introduction
4.1.2 Data interpretation and analysis
4.1.3 Application of econometrics tools
4.1.4 Data interpretation and analysis
4.1.5 Summary of results analysis and recommendation
4.2 Linear Regression
4.2.1 Data visualization and regression analysis
4.2.2 Analysis and Interpretation
4.3 Paired T-Test
4.3.1 Hypothesis Testing
4.3.2 Analysis and Interpretation of the result
4.4. Correlation and covariance analysis of the Ethiopian coffee export
4.4.1. Correlation
4.4.2. Data analysis and interpretation Seaborn Correlation Heatmap:
4.4.3. Seaborn Pairplot
4.4.4. Matplotlib Correlation Heatmap
5. CHAPTER FIVE
5.1 Conclusion
5.2 Recommendations
Project Objectives and Focus
The primary objective of this research is to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the statistical characteristics of the Ethiopian coffee export market, utilizing 30 years of historical data to predict future market trends and evaluate the effectiveness of governmental policy measures.
- Analysis of 30 years of historical Ethiopian coffee export data.
- Application of modern quantitative tools, including Python and Excel, for predictive modeling.
- Testing of research hypotheses using statistical methods like ARIMA, Simple Linear Regression, and Paired T-tests.
- Correlation and covariance analysis between Ethiopian coffee exports and global economic indicators.
- Evaluation of the resilience of the Ethiopian coffee sector compared to global market trends during the pandemic.
Excerpt from the Book
1.3 Problem statement
Covid-19 is affecting the world market, especially the global coffee market, which has been seriously impacted by the pandemic. According to ICO in its monthly trade statistic report, the following results have been registered, showing the following statistics; “Export of coffee Arabica fell from 7.6% to 6.648 million 60 kg bags. Shipments of other Mild’s were sharply decreases (-19%) to 2.239 million bags. Colombian Mild’s declined by 1.4% to 1.207 million bags, while Brazilian Naturals were virtually flat at 3.202 million bags”(ICO, 2020a).
As per the report announcement by the General Manager of the Ethiopian Coffee Association, we see that even though the number of covid 19 cases rose drastically, the Ethiopian coffee market faced no decline until about 15th May, 2020 owing to the fact that the government put in place strict measures to fight the pandemic.
The country has exported its coffee Arabica bags without any interruption to countries such as Germany, Japan, the UK, Saudi Arabia, and the USA.
He added that its speciality coffee export which accounts 20% of Ethiopian’s coffee export, has suffered a lot to continue as pre COVID-19 time.
Summary of Chapters
CHAPTER ONE: Provides an introduction to the Ethiopian coffee market, outlines the research problem regarding the impact of COVID-19, and sets the specific study objectives.
CHAPTER TWO: Reviews existing literature on the pandemic, discusses the global coffee market situation, and performs a competitive SWOT analysis of the Ethiopian coffee sector.
CHAPTER THREE: Details the methodology, including the use of time-series data, the ARMA model, and simple linear regression to test the research hypotheses.
CHAPTER FOUR: Presents the empirical data analysis, covering time-series modeling using ARIMA, linear regression, t-tests, and correlation analysis to evaluate export trends and market relationships.
CHAPTER FIVE: Concludes the findings, summarizing the resilience of the Ethiopian market and providing strategic recommendations for future growth and risk mitigation.
Keywords
Ethiopian Coffee Export Market, COVID-19, Time Series Modeling, ARIMA, Linear Regression, Price Volatility, Statistical Analysis, Commodity Market, Economic Impact, Predictive Analysis, Supply Chain, Market Resilience, Correlation Analysis, Export Revenue, Python
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the core focus of this research paper?
The paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the statistical characteristics of the Ethiopian coffee export market, specifically investigating how the market behaved during the crisis compared to global trends.
What are the primary thematic areas covered?
The study covers the economics of the coffee export industry, the impact of global pandemics on commodity markets, the application of statistical and machine learning tools in finance, and the role of government policy in market stabilization.
What is the main objective or research question of this study?
The main goal is to determine if the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant negative or positive impact on the Ethiopian coffee export market and to use that data to forecast export revenue trends for the next decade.
Which scientific methods are employed in this analysis?
The research uses quantitative methods including time-series modeling (ARIMA), Simple Linear Regression, Paired T-tests, and correlation/covariance matrices implemented via Python and Excel.
What is covered in the main section of the paper?
The main body focuses on data interpretation, including the statistical description of 30 years of export data, the testing of stationarity, hypothesis testing regarding the impact of COVID-19 cases on export volume, and predictive modeling.
Which keywords best characterize the work?
The work is characterized by terms such as Ethiopian Coffee Export Market, COVID-19, Predictive Analysis, ARIMA, and Market Resilience.
How did the researchers source their data?
Secondary data was primarily collected from the Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority's marketing department, the International Coffee Organization (ICO), and the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX).
What unique conclusion does the author reach regarding Ethiopia's market?
The author concludes that unlike many other sectors globally, the Ethiopian coffee export market showed surprising resilience and even growth during the pandemic, attributed largely to government intervention and policy measures.
- Arbeit zitieren
- Tewodros Ayalew (Autor:in), 2020, The Impact Of Covid-19 On Statistical Characteristics of Coffee Market. Evidence From Ethiopian Coffee, München, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/957080
