The Impact Of Climate Change On Nigeria’s Agricultural Output. An Overview

Table of Contents

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
1.1Background to the Study
1.2 Statement of Problem
1.3 Research Questions
1.4 Objective of the Study
1.5 Hypothesis of the Study
1.6 Significance of the Study
1.7 Scope and Limitation of the Study
1.8 Organization of the study

CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Conceptual Literature
2.1.1 Climate Change
2.1.2 Agriculture
2.1.3 Output
2.2 Agriculture and the Nigerian Economy
2.3 Climatic Condition in Nigeria
2.4 Carbon Emission in Nigeria
2.5 The Issue of Global Emission and the Nigerian Ecosystem
2.6 The Effects of Global Climate Change on Nigeria Agricultural
2.7 Theoretical Literature Review
2.7.1 Theory Ricardian Cross Section Model
2.7.2 Agra-economic Models (Crop Simulation Models)
2.7.3 Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) Models
2.8 Empirical Literature Review
2.9 Theoretical framework of Study
2.10 Gaps in Literature

CHAPTER THREE :METHODOLOGY
3.1 Types and Sources of Data
3.2 Method of Estimation
3.3. Model Specification
3.4 Evaluation Criteria
3.4.1 Unit Root Test
3.4.2 Co-integration Test
3.4.3 Granger Causality Test

CHAPTER FOUR: PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS of DATA
4.1 Result Presentation
4.1.1 Stationarity Test Result
4.1.2Co-integration Test Result(s)
4.2 Granger Causality Test Result
4.3 Autoregressive Distributed Lag Estimates
4.3.1 Bound Test Result
4.3.2 Stability Test
4.4 Policy Implication of Finding

CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1 Summary
5.2 Conclusion

REFERENCES

APPENDIX

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1.1Background to the Study

Since independence, agriculture has been the most important sector in terms of its contribution to gross domestic product (Adegeye,1993).The sector contributes about 41% of the countrys GDP, employing about 65° of the total population and provides employment to about 80% of the rural population, (Abdullahi, 1986). Over 90% of her agricultural production comes from the holding resource small scale farmers (Onwuemele 2007).

Climate change is a change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns when that change last for an extended period of time (i.e. decades of millions of years). It can also be termed as a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution in weather patterns over a long period of time ranging from decades to millions of years (Aj etomobi and Abiodun, 2010).

Agriculture dominated the domestic economy of Nigeria and accounts for about 40% of the gross domestic product (GDP) and two third of the labour force. Agriculture supplies food, raw material and generates household income for the majority of the people (Binuometa et a1, 2012). Declining rainfall and increasing Climate change through frequent flooding, drought increasing temperature, and increasing salinity of water used for irrigation has become a recurrent subject of debate globally including Nigeria. When the United National Framework on Climate Change (UNFCC) was opened to signature in June 1992, Nigeria was among the 15lh countries that signed the convention in August 1994. Like other developing countries, challenge of climate change and global warming is enormous in Nigeria due to wide spread of gas flaring, incomplete burnt hydrocarbons, emission of uninstalled gas into the atmosphere and improper disposal of industrial chemical wastes. Though, climate change is a threat to agricultural and non-agricultural development, agricultural production activities are more vulnerable to climate change than other sectors. One of the main concerns is the risk it poses to food production in developing countries, due to heavy reliance on Agriculture.

How much one can hold climate responsible for the changes in agricultural output in Nigeria will for a long time remain a subject of research as long as other factors are at interplay in determining agricultural outputs, the production of major export crops in the country such as groundnut, rubber, coffee, cocoa, and palm have declined in magnitude since the drought in 1972 1973 which was the first red evidence of climate change in Nigeria (Aj etomobi and Abiodun, 2010). The prevailing scientific opinion on climate change is that most of the warming’s observed over the last 50 years is attributed to human activities. It is in line with this occurrence that researchers deem it fit to look into the impact of climate change on agricultural outputs taking the case study of Nigeria.

1.2 Statement of Problem

The issue of climate change has become more threatening not only to the sustainable development of socio-economical and agricultural activities of any nation but to the totality of human existence (Adejuwon, 2004). The impact could, however, be measured in terms of effects on crop growth, availability of soil water, soil erosion, incident of pest and diseases, sea level rises and decrease in soil fertility (Adejuwon, 2004). This has negatively affected the livelihood for most rural households who depend mainly on agriculture. Climate change is affecting key developmental issues such as food security as a result of reduction in crop output. Food insecurity related diseases are likely to emerge at a rapid pace due to the changes in climate conditions. The direct impact of climate change on agricultural systems are: changes in rainfall and temperatures which could impact on ago-climatic conditions, altering growing seasons, planting and harvesting calendars, water availability, pest, weed and disease population.

Also in the Niger Delta part of Nigeria, acid rains are prevalent because of emission through oil producing companies which in turn influence the kinds of rains pour down (Zievegel, et a1 2008).

Government program like structural adjustment program(SAP) in the time past have not been able to solve the dip in Agricultural outputs which continuous in Nigeria. Also, despite government intervention, international private individuals to improve on climate problem, Agricultural contribution to GDP has not been encouraging. However little or no studies existed in this area to contribute to the agricultural development, there is need to stimulate research on climate effect on agricultural output with emphasis on Nigeria. Direct effects of climate variables such as air, temperature, humidity, wind performance such as growth, milk production, wool production and reproduction. Climate can also affect the quantity and quality of feed stuffs such as pasture, forage, and grain and also the severity and distribution of livestock diseases and parasite (Niggol and Mendelsohn 2008). Hence the totality of agricultural sector is consideredby examining agricultural productivity. Rainfall is by far the most important element of climate change in Nigeria and water resources potential in the country (Adejumo 2004). The northeast region of Nigeria is increasingly becoming an arid environment at a very fast rate per year occasioned by fast reduction in the amount of surface water, flora and fauna resources on land (Obioha 2008). Consistent reduction in rainfall leads to a reduction in the natural regeneration rate of land resources (Fasona and Omojola 2005). This makes people to exploit more previously undisturbed lands leading to depletion of the forest cover and increase on sanddunes/Aeolian deposits in the northern axis of Nigeria. Climate change is the most severe problem that world is facing today. It has been suggested that it is a more serious threat than global terrorism (King 2004). The southern area of Nigeria largely known for high rainfall is currently confronted by irregularity in the rainfall and temperature is gradually increasing in the Guinea savannah zone of the country. In addition, the northern zone faces the threat of desert encroachment (FME 2004). Climate change affects food and water resources that are critical for livelihood in Africa where much of the population especially the poor, rely on local supply system that are sensitive toclimate variation. Disruptions of existing food and water systems will have devastating implications for development and livelihood. These are expected to add to the challenges climate change already poses for poverty eradication (De Wit and Stankiewicz 2006). According to Obioha (2009), the sustainability of the environment to provide all life support systems and the materials for fulfilling all developmental aspirations of man and animal is dependent on the suitability of the climate which is undergoing constant changes. The effect of these changes is posing threat to food security and agricultural output in general within the country. The study examines the impact of climate change on agricultural output.

1.3 Research Questions

In view of this lingering problem, this research work intends to address the following research questions.

i. does climate change has significance impact on agricultural outputs?
ii. is there a longrun relationship between climate change and agricultural outputs in Nigeria?
iii. what is the direction of causation between climate change and economic growth in Nigeria?

1.4 Objective of the Study

The main objective of the study is to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural output in Nigeria.

The specific objectives of this research Work are as follow:

i To examine the impact of climate change on Nigeria’s agricultural output.
ii. to investigate the existence of longrun relationship between climate change and agricultural outputs in Nigeria.
iii. to examine the direction of causation between climate change and economic growth in Nigeria.

1.5 Hypothesis of the Study

In line with the objective of the study, the following null hypothesis were formulated

H01: there is no significant impact of climate change on agricultural outputs in Nigeria
H02: there is no longrun relationship between climate change and agricultural outputs in Nigeria.
H03: there is no direction of causation between climate change and economic growth in Nigeria.

1.6 Significance of the Study

This study will be of great importance in the following areas namely: This study will assist the government in making plans that will encourage expansion of Agricultural output in Nigeria, hence increasing the potential of agricultural processing and marketing activities in generating local income and employment in the country. This study will be of importance in reducing the vulnerability of Agricultural output to hazardous climate change. Readers of this work might find it useful in all important more of the starting point, and the development of all important financial sectors of the Nigerian economy.

It is also expected that the findings of the study would provoke further researches into the subject thereby building a strong literature on the subject matter. This study will be of great importance to the students and other researchers since it will serve as a reference point for future studies. This study will also contribute to the existing literature by providing recent empirical evidence concerning the impact of climate change on agricultural output. More so, the result of this study may serve as a paramount terrain in formulation of new agendas for Nigeria Metreological Agency (NIMET).

1.7 Scope and Limitation of the Study

This research work is set out to study the impact of climate change on agricultural output in Nigeria and to identify other factors determining agricultural output from 1986 - 2017. More again, this research work is not void of commas and limitations. For instance, the researcher had a problem of having access to some relevant materials or data because most of the government agencies strictly keep their records secretly and make delay in giving relevant data. Secondly, financial constraint is another limitation experienced in the course of this research work. it was complicated for the researcher to raise enough funds required to pay for all the needed expenses for the research. Thirdly, time factor is also another limiting factor. A limited time was allocated to the researcher for the study. The researcher did not have enough time for the study because of other academic activities during the period of the research.

1.8 Organization of the study

The research project is categorized into five (5) chapters as; Chapter one (1) consist of the general introduction to the background of the study, statement of research problem, research questions, objectives of the study, hypothesis of the study, significance of the study, scope of the study, limitation of the study and lastly, structure of the study. Chapter two (2), contains Review of literature, Definitions of keywords variables, Theoretical literature review, empirical literature review, Gaps in literature and theoretical framework of the study.

Chapter three (3) is concerned with the research methodology, type and sources of data used, sampling method, methods of data collection, model specification, method of data analysis and various test to be carried out. Chapter four (4) contains presentation of data and discussion of the result, Analysis of data, hypotheses testing and policy implications of findings . Finally, Chapter five (5) which is the lasts of this project centers on the summary of findings, conclusions and recommendations.

CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Conceptual Literature

2.1.1 Climate Change

Climate is the weather condition of an area over a number of years (Mama & Osinem, 2007). It is the regular pattern of weather conditions of a particular place. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) glossary definition shows that:

Climate is the average weather within a given duration. It is the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical period is usually 30 years and the quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind.

Climate is the typical weather conditions experienced at any location or area over series of years. Weather conditions such as rainfall, sun intensity, surface temperature and other meteorological elements recorded on interval for years and the average taken at the end of the targeted period is referred to as the climate of the location where such data were collected. Over historical time span, there have been a number of nearly constant variables that determine climate, including latitude, altitude, proportion of land to water, and proximity to oceans and mountains (IPCC, 2007). Many global issues are related to climate, such as the supply of basic needs such as food, water, health, and shelter. Unfavourable climate variations may threaten basic needs with increased temperatures, sea level rise, changes in precipitation, and more frequent or intense extreme events (Karl, Melillo, & Peterson, 2009). It is predicted that food security, water and other key natural resources may be threatened by climate change.

Climate change is the significant and lasting variation in the statistical properties of the average weather system when considered over long period of time, regardless of cause (IPCC, 2007). Climate change can be referred to as the variation in average weather which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activities in addition to natural events that alters the composition of the atmosphere over comparable time period. The term is sometimes used to refer specifically to climate variation caused by human activities, as opposed to earth's natural processes (United Nations, UN, 1994). Climate change is a longterm shift in the weather condition of a specific location, region or planet. The shift is measured by changes in features associated with average weather, such as temperature, wind patterns and precipitation (UN, 1994). It could be a shift in average weather conditions, or in the distribution of weather around the average conditions (IPCC, 2007). In the context of environmental policy, the term climate change has become synonymous with anthropogenic global warming, which is the rise in average surface temperature (IPCC, 2007).

2.1.2 Agriculture

According to New World Encyclopedia, agriculture (a term which encompasses farming) is the process of producing food, feed, fiber, fuel, and other goods by the systematic raising of plants and animals. Agricultural products have been a main stay of the human diet for many thousands of years.

According to Merriam Webster-Dictionary agriculture is the cultivation of animal, plants and fungal for food, fiber, medicinal plants and other products used to sustain and enhance human life? It’s the science or practice of farming, including cultivation of the soil for growing of crops and the rearing of animal to provide food, wool, and other products. Agriculture is the science and art of cultivation on soil and the rearing of livestock (Odingo, 2009).

2.1.3 Output

According to Collins Dictionary output is used to refer to the amount of something that a person or thing produces. Output in economics is the quantity of goods and services produced in a time period, by a firm, industry, or country. Whether consumed or used for further production. Also output is the total quantity produced by farmer in a given time period at the end of farming season (Oluwasemire, 1999).

2.2 Agriculture and the Nigerian Economy

Agriculture remains the mainstay of the majority of households in Nigeria and is a significant sector in Nigeria’s economy. The significance of the agricultural sector to Nigeria’s economy cannot be over emphasized as its catalyst for food provision, contribution to the gross domestic product, provision of employment, provision of raw material for agro-allied industries and generation of foreign earnings. A sectoral analysis in 2006 of the real GDP indicated that the agricultural sector contributed to about 42% of the GDP compared with 41.2 percent in 2005 (CBN, 2011). The growth rate of the contribution of the agricultural sector to the GDP at 1990 constant basic prices grew from 4.2 percent in 2002 to 7.2 percent in 2006, GDP From Agriculture in Nigeria decreased to 4978775.48 NGN Million in the fourth quarter of 2018 from 5288339.21 NGN Million in the third quarter of 2018. GDP From Agriculture in Nigeria averaged 3839502.51 NGN Million from 2010 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 5288339.21 NGN Million in the third quarter of 2018 and a record low of 2594759.86 NGN Million in the first quarter of 2010. The agricultural sector also employed over 60 percent of the total labor force in Nigeria in 1999.

The usage of inorganic fertilizers was promoted by Nigerian government in the 1970’s. In 1990, 82 million hectares out of Nigeria’s total land area of about 91 million hectares were found to be arable. 42 percent of the cultivable area was formed. Much of this land was farmed under the bush fallow system whereby land is left idle for a period of time to allow natural regeneration of soil fertility. 18 million hectares were classified as permanent pastures, but had the potential to support crops most of the 20 million hectares covered by forecast and woodland are believed to have agricultural potentials.

Agricultural holdings are small and scattered, and farming is carried out with simple tools. Large scale agriculture is not common. Agriculture contributed 32% to GDP in 2001. Major crops include beans, groundnuts, gum Arabic, kola nut, maize (corn), melon, millet, palm kernels, palm oil, plantains, rice, rubber, sorghum, soya beans and yams.( Asafu-Adjaye, 2005) a) Growth in Agricultural output has no doubt been on the rise as farmer are stepping away from subsistence agriculture and embracing modern civilization. Investing in large scale farming and ultimately increasing agricultural output.

The Nigeria soil mid climate condition is very suitable for the production of wide varieties of crops, there are over a hundred different food crops produced by farmers in Nigeria on yearly basis which include yam, maize, millet, sorghum, beans, potatoes, rice, onion garbage, carrot, pear, cocoa, cocoa yam, okra, vegetables and very many others.

Although Nigeria depends heavily on the oil industry for its budgetary revenue it is believed that if the agricultural sector is properly managed and enhanced, it would greatly boost the country’s gross domestic product and even replace oil on top of the list considering the vast area of land that is unused in Nigeria.

2.3 Climatic Condition in Nigeria

There are two dimensions to the issue of climate change in Nigeria. The first, already acknowledged by households and communities across Nigeria, and reported by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (2008), is changes that have already been observed in climate parameters such as temperature, rainfall and extreme weather events. The second deals with changes that are to be expected in the future. These two dimensions are dealt with in the sub-sections that follow immediately. A key contribution on observed climate change has come from BNRCC (Building Nigeria’s Response to Climate Change) research and pilot projects spread throughout the ecological zones of the country. The results of these projects have been collated and synthesized, providing documentation of community level experience with climate hazards, impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation measures. In addition, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET, 2008) assessed the Nigerian climate over the period 1991 to 2010 and demonstrated the following changes.

Rainfall

Between 1914 and 1970, only patches of the country, around Sokoto and Maiduguri and in the southeast, experienced late onset of rains. However, from 1971 to 2000 late onset of rains had spread to most parts, leaving only a narrow band in the middle of the country with normal conditions. Similarly, only a small patch of the country in the southwest recorded early cessation of rains between 1914 and I970, while from 1971 to 2000 early cessation of rains had covered most of the country. The combination of late onset and early cessation of annual rainfall decreased by 2-8 mm across most of the country, but increased by 2-4 mm in a few places, most significantly around Port Harcourt. Nigerians are already feeling and adjusting to the impacts of climate variability and change. Rainfall distribution in northem Nigeria is uni-modal; results of trend analyses of rainfall data have shown a tendency towards decreasing rainfall totals in all regions of Nigeria (Anyadike, 1992). However, significant decreases are recorded in northern Nigeria. The annual rainfall amount and rainy days’ decrease with increase latitudinal position (Table 1). For example, mean annual rainfall for Kano (latitude 12°), Samaru (latitude 11°) and Kaduna (latitude 10°) are 850, 1050 and 1219 mm respectively; a negative correlation exists between year of measurement and annual rainfall totals. Regression equations revealed decrease of 3.18, 2.68, and 1.15mm per annum respectively, for Kano, Samaru and Kaduna (Oluwasemire, 1999). In Nigeria, as rainfall amount decrease northward; the number of rainy days’ decreases southwards. This shows an increase in the rainfall intensity for each event.

Temperature

From 1941 to 2000 there was evidence of long-term temperature increase in most parts of the country. The main exception was in the 103 area, where a slight cooling was recorded. The most significant increases were recorded in the extreme northeast, extreme northwest and extreme southwest, where average temperatures rose by 1.490 C. Figure 5 reports trend analysis of Nigeria’s temperature and rainfall situations. The graph indicates that temperature in Nigeria is rising overtime. It is evident from the graph that Nigeria has had a fair distribution of temperature except for the early part of the 1970's and 2012’s. This implies that temperature in Nigeria experienced a dwindling and fluctuating trend in the early 70’s and 2012’s. And this recent fluctuating trend might have detrimental effect on agricultural production. In terms of rainfall as shown in Figure 5, there has been declining trend throughout the study period. The rainfall trend shows fluctuating trend throughout the period besides being on a decline trend.

2.4 Carbon Emission in Nigeria

As earlier stated, among the gases emitted to the atmosphere contributing to GHGs, C02 emission contributes more than 40%. It is on this basis that we examine the trend of C02 emission in Nigeria.

Table 1: Carbon Emission (C02) Emission in Nigeria,

Year Nigeria(kt)

1971-1975 46,594

1976-1980 58511

1981-1985 66202

1986-1990 58282

1991-1995 50354

1996-2010 48953

2011-2017 94037

Source: World Development Indicator (WDI)

Figure 1: Graphical Presentation of Carbon Emission in Nigeria.

Abbildung in dieser Leseprobe nicht enthalten

However, the conflicting and competing issue is that there is need to reduce GHGs emission in the world but developing countries need to meet up with current challenges of development and this cannot happen in isolation of GHGs emission. This is the sticky situation facing Nigeria for instance.

2.5 The Issue of Global Emission and the Nigerian Ecosystem

An understanding of the issue of global emission or climate change issue is germane to the robustness of this paper; hence it is briefly discussed here. At the global level, a country may generate global warming through the emission of industrial pollutants and destroys the ozone layer which might affect other countries that might not be emitting as the emission leads to accumulation of GHGs in the atmosphere that creates concern for the globe. Such pollution is termed trans boundary extemality (IPCC, 2000).

In a global context, externalities are specified in terms of distinction between polluting and victim countries. However, the main problem here in the issue of global emission is how to internalize the externality that is the implementation of polluter pays principle, at the global level. This is a case of multilateral externality.

This is because global emission involves several polluters and several victims, uncertain on the source and the direction of externalities. This makes it a global concern as each country is termed a polluter and a victim (Odingo, 2009). In the model of social optimum with externalities, which is the standard model of environmental policy, general equilibrium implies that global emission is the cumulated sum of unitary emissions, independent of the origin and the nature of each unit of emission (Asafu-Adjaye, 2005). The underlying hypothesis is termed uniformly mixing pollutants. This hypothesis is therefore plausible only for the global warming case, as contribution of a unit of C02 to the accumulation of GHGs in the atmosphere is the same wherever it was produced. For instance, a unit of C02 generated in the polar area or in a tropical area will contribute to same extent to the global warming, but the polar agriculture will benefit from the global warming whereas the African agriculture will likely suffer from it. However, acid rain impacts will differ from one country to another, depending on the soils characteristics, distance from the source of pollution, and the direction of the dominant winds (IPCC, 2000).Nigeria contains six ecological zones, ranging from a belt of mangrove swamps and tropical forests along the coast to open woodland and savanna on the low plateau which extends through much of the central part of the country, to the semi-arid plains in the north and highlands to the east. The principal food crops are yams, cassava, and maize to the south, and millet, sorghum, and cowpeas in the drier north. Cocoa, rubber, oil palm, groundnuts, and cotton are the main crops which are generally destined for export. Between the arid north and the moist south lies a Guinea Savanna Zone sometimes referred to as the middle belt. This area produces staples such as yams, sorghum, millet, cassava, cowpeas, and corn, with rice an important crop in some places. The middle belt's southern edge represents the lower limits of the northern grain-dominated economy. The most significant commercial crop of the middle belt is sesame (or benniseed). Rainfall is heaviest in the south, where the rain forests and woodlands benefit from abundant precipitation and relatively short dry seasons. Root crops are the staples in the south, including cassava, yams, taro (cocoyam), and sweet potatoes. The cash crops in the south are tree crops, which in general are grown on large plantations that include cacao, oil palm, and rubber. However, almost 85 percent of Nigeria’s current palm oil production is from unorganized wild groves. The northern third of Nigeria experiences a dry season of five to seven months, and lies mostly in the Sudan and Sahel Savanna zones. Staples in the north are millet, cowpeas, and a drought-resistant variety of sorghum known as guinea corn. Sorghum is Nigeria’s most widely cultivated grain, accounting for more than 45 percent of the total area. Sorghum cultivation spans from the north to the middle belt where precipitation and soil moisture levels are low. Corn is also cultivated. as Well as rice in suitable lowland areas. Wheat is a fadama (lowland) crop. inrrgated along broad valley bottoms in the north, especially in the Lake Chad basin. The north's principal commercial crops are cotton and groundnuts (USDA, 2000).

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