There are cases in which the same electorate casts votes for ideologically detached candidates and parties in a short time-span. Migrants with dual voting rights often fall in this category. Examining the Turkish diaspora in Germany, the author hypothesizes that social identity and cross-generational interaction terms have influence on attitudes towards parties.
He explores their effects on the probability of voting for a certain party by proposing logistic regression using maximum likelihood estimation. Introducing a new theoretical model addressing value shifts, this study also yields policy recommendations for social and integration issues.
Table of Contents
1 Introduction
2 Literature
3 Theory
4 Research Design
Data
Limitations
Response variables
Explanatory variables
Regression
5 Results
6 Discussion
Objectives & Key Themes
This study investigates the phenomenon of "Janus-voting" among migrants—a pattern where individuals cast ballots for ideologically disparate candidates or parties in their host and origin countries within a short timeframe. By applying social identity theory and a newly proposed value shift model, the research seeks to understand the determinants of this asymmetrical voting behaviour, specifically focusing on the Turkish diaspora in Germany.
- Analysis of dual voting patterns and political participation among migrants.
- Application of social identity theory to explain migrant electoral choices.
- Development of a theoretical value shift model to account for generational changes.
- Examination of how socioeconomic and family-based interaction terms influence voting.
- Evaluation of the tension between integration in host societies and political loyalty to home countries.
Excerpt from the Book
3 Theory
How can this phenomenon be explained? Looking at the new V-Party data provided by Lührmann et al. (2020) in Figure 1, huge discrepancies between both vote choices become observable for the case of Turks in Germany. This study does not analyse if and how migrants become involved but instead why they are participating in both countries the way they are, i.e. Finn’s (2020) dual transnational outline.
Migrants with dual citizenship have the right to vote in both countries. The Federal Statistical Office of Germany formally defines a person as migrant if she or at least one of her parents does not possess citizenship by birth (see also Statistisches Bundesamt (2020)). Yet, it is common to go back to the grandparents in order to look for a migratory background.
The support for a party is among other things determined by economic and political variables. Pocketbook and sociotropic voting are widely researched by economic voting scholars (Nannestad and Paldam, 1994; Dassonneville and Hooghe, 2017; Tilley, Neundorf and Hobolt, 2018). Migrants are not part of the majority group in society. Their migration story do, however, vary: For instance, Turkish emigrants in the United States are on average more educated and wealthier than the standard US-American while in Germany, they originate from lower class conservative workers. While the former constantly supports opposition candidates at home, the latter is inclined towards the incumbent party (Koinova and Tsourapas, 2018; Sevi et al., 2020). This particular category constitutes a socioeconomically weak minority and thus, strives for protection due to own endurance concerns. In order to ensure survival in the host country, they vote for minority-friendly parties, which mostly are leftist and diametrically opposed towards their conservative values (Mügge et al., 2019).
Summary of Chapters
1 Introduction: This chapter introduces the puzzle of ideologically detached voting among migrants and outlines the research objective of understanding these divergent political behaviors.
2 Literature: It reviews existing research on migrant political participation, highlighting the tension between dual citizenship and integration while identifying gaps regarding asymmetrical voting.
3 Theory: This section presents a theoretical framework using social identity theory and a new value shift model to explain why migrants support different ideological poles in two countries.
4 Research Design: This chapter details the quantitative methodology, the "2000 Families" dataset usage, variable construction, and the multivariate logistic regression equation.
5 Results: This short section notes that a final empirical analysis was not performed due to seminar requirements.
6 Discussion: The concluding chapter synthesizes the findings, reinforces the importance of generational change and socioeconomic factors, and provides policy recommendations regarding integration.
Keywords
Janus-voting, Migrant participation, Social identity theory, Value shift model, Turkish diaspora, Germany, Dual citizenship, Electoral behavior, Transnational politics, Sociotropic voting, Pocketbook voting, Integration policy, Political behavior, Ideological detachment.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the core research subject of this paper?
The paper examines the "Janus-voting" behavior of migrants, who often cast votes for ideologically different parties in their host country compared to their country of origin.
Which specific group is analyzed?
The study focuses on the Turkish diaspora living in Germany.
What is the primary objective of the study?
The main goal is to identify the determinants of deviant or asymmetrical voting behavior among migrants with dual voting rights.
What research methodology is employed?
The author uses a quantitative, large-N approach applying multivariate logistic regression analysis to explain voting probability.
What theoretical framework is introduced?
The author introduces a "value shift model" that links generational change and socioeconomic factors to the evolution of a migrant's political belief system over time.
Which key variables are analyzed in the regression?
The model includes variables such as social perception, educational level, income, religiosity, and interaction terms representing path dependence within families.
Why might Turkish migrants in Germany vote for leftist parties in their host country?
They often vote for minority-friendly, leftist parties in Germany to ensure their own socioeconomic protection and survival as a minority group.
Does the paper present a final empirical result?
No, the paper states that a final empirical analysis was not conducted due to the specific requirements of the seminar for which it was written.
- Quote paper
- S. Talha Güney (Author), 2021, Asymmetrical Voting Behavior. Janus-Voting Among Migrants, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/997378
