The Thesis has the aim to find out the reasons that stand behind the
post-election violence in Kenya. After incumbent Mwai Kibaki was
declared President over his competitor Raila Odinga on December
30, 2007, Kenya fell into two month of heavy bloodshed. The
cleavages where along tribal lines but different theories could
explain the happenings.
The four theories chosen are dealing with a Security
Dilemma, Resource Contesting, Corruptive Elites and Symbolic
Policy. It will be shown that dilemma or primordial hatred are
existing and contributing but not actual reasons to the initial
violence. In contrast, the contest over resources and the incitement
of politicians and elders are primary factors that led to the
thousands of death and hundreds of thousands of displaced people.
Table of Contents
I. INTRODUCTION
II. METHODOLOGY
1. RELEVANCE OF THE CASE AND LEVEL OF CURRENT RESEARCH
2. RESEARCH QUESTION
3. METHODOLOGY AND MATERIAL
4. STRUCTURE OF THE THESIS
III. BACKGROUND
1. GENERAL
2. ETHNICITY IN KENYA
3. A SHORT HISTORY OF KENYA
4. THE POLITICAL SYSTEM UNTIL 2007
5. THE COST OF LOSING
6. POLITICIZED ETHNICITY
7. THE QUESTION OF LAND
8. THE IDEA OF MAJIMBO
9. THE MUNGIKI
10. THE GENERAL ELECTION 2007 AND THE VIOLENCE
IV. THEORETICAL PART
1. THE CONCEPT OF ETHNICITY
2. GENERAL
3. SECURITY DILEMMA
4. RESOURCE CONTESTING
5. CORRUPTIVE ELITES
6. SYMBOLIC POLICY
V. EMPIRICAL PART
1. CHECKING THE SECURITY DILEMMA
1.1 MUTUAL JUDGEMENT
1.2 FEAR AND PREPARATION
1.3 STATE OF ANARCHY IN KENYA
1.4 MODEL OF DILEMMA
1.5 ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL MEDIATION
1.6 PRE-CONCLUSION
2. PROVING A RESOURCE CONTEST
2.1 POLITICS AS A ZERO-SUM-GAME?
2.2 CONCEPTIONS OTHER THAN ETHNICITY
2.3 ROLE OF ETHNICITY IN FIGHTING FOR GOODS
2.4 REASONS FOR ECONOMIC CLEAVAGES
2.5 WHAT THE INDIVIDUAL GAINS
2.6 PRE-CONCLUSION
3. LOOKING FOR CORRUPTIVE ELITES
3.1 SYSTEM OF THE AGENCY
3.2 WHAT ELITES WANT
3.3 WHAT THE PEOPLE DO
3.4 INTERACTION BETWEEN ELITES AND PEOPLE
3.5 COMPETITION AMONG AND WITHIN ELITES
3.6 THE QUESTION OF CONSTITUENCY
3.7 ACTORS OF THE VIOLENCE
3.8 PRE-CONCLUSION
4. FINDING A SYMBOLIC POLICY
4.1 PRIMORDIAL HATE?
4.2 THE USE OF ETHNICITY
4.3 REASONS FOR THE ACTORS
4.4 PRE-CONCLUSION
VI. CONCLUSION
Research Goals & Themes
This thesis examines the underlying causes of the post-election violence that erupted in Kenya in late 2007. The primary research question addresses how this violent outbreak can be explained by applying four distinct political science theories: the Security Dilemma, Resource Contesting, Corruptive Elites, and Symbolic Policy.
- The role of ethnicity as a central factor in Kenyan political competition.
- The impact of land-related grievances and colonial historical legacies.
- The influence of political elites in manipulating and inciting ethnic-based violence.
- The effectiveness of applying theoretical models to explain complex, real-world violent outbreaks.
Excerpt from the Book
3. Security Dilemma
The basic idea of this theory is explained by Rothchild: “ethnic groups are uncertain of each other’s present intentions, they may overestimate the adversary’s hostility” and this leads to the problem of credible commitment (Kaufman 2006: 49). The dilemma therefore describes mutual uncertainty which “causes decision-makers to be fearful” and calculate with the worst since “anarchy promotes ‘self-help’ behaviour” (Roe 1999: 184f). Apart from “information failure” and “problems of credible commitment” Lake and Rothchild point to the “incentives to use force pre-emptively” (cf. 1996: 44, 46ff). Horowitz states that hostility comes more often from “potential victims that are strong and powerful” (2001: 5). Hence, there is an essential “forward-looking nature of the strategic dilemma” according to Lake and Rothchild (1996: 46), but I would argue that it is also back-looking since groups call upon collective memories, myths and propaganda when viewing ‘the others’ (cf. Horowitz 1998: 6) Lake and Rothchild at least do not deny this “acting on the basis of prior beliefs” (cf. 1996: 51).
Therefore, the role of agency cannot be fully excluded here since “ethnic activists and political entrepreneurs – can produce rapid and profound polarization within a multi-ethnic society” (ibid.: 53). Kaufman distinguishes rightly between “state-induced” and “system-induced” security dilemma (quoted in Roe 1999: 191). The former can be more a result of an elite agitation (cf. below for more) for example while the latter constitutes the ‘classic’ dilemma.
A security dilemma between groups within a state can occur when their relations are similar to that on the international stage, hence, when the state itself is weak, weakening or failed. The groups have to care for themselves without a central distributive or regulatory institution to turn to; consequently, anarchy is the only regime.
Summary of Chapters
I. INTRODUCTION: Outlines the sudden escalation of violence following the 2007 Kenyan general elections and presents the initial context of the crisis.
II. METHODOLOGY: Defines the qualitative, process-oriented approach and justifies the use of specific political science theories to analyze the case study.
III. BACKGROUND: Provides historical context, including ethnic divisions, colonial land history, and the political system, which are necessary to understand the violence.
IV. THEORETICAL PART: Introduces and details the four core theories: Security Dilemma, Resource Contesting, Corruptive Elites, and Symbolic Policy.
V. EMPIRICAL PART: Applies the selected theories to the empirical data from the 2007 Kenyan post-election crisis to evaluate their explanatory value.
VI. CONCLUSION: Synthesizes the findings and weighs the explanatory power of each theory regarding the outbreak of the violence.
Keywords
Kenya, post-election violence, ethnicity, Security Dilemma, Resource Contesting, Corruptive Elites, Symbolic Policy, Majimbo, land conflict, political patronage, electoral fraud, Mungiki, political entrepreneurship, failed state, ethnic mobilization.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the core focus of this thesis?
The work investigates the underlying reasons for the intense violence that occurred in Kenya immediately following the 2007 general elections, analyzing why the nation experienced such rapid destabilization.
Which theoretical frameworks are used?
The research utilizes four specific frameworks: the Security Dilemma, Resource Contesting, Corruptive Elites, and Symbolic Policy to structure the analysis of the events.
What is the primary objective?
The goal is to determine how well these four theories can account for the outbreak of violence and to identify which factors—structural, material, or elite-driven—were most significant.
What methodology does the author employ?
A qualitative, process-oriented research method is used, primarily relying on secondary data analysis, reports, and expert literature to understand the causal mechanisms behind the conflict.
What is covered in the main section?
The main section moves from the historical background of Kenya to a detailed theoretical discussion, followed by an empirical application where each theory is checked against the events of 2007 and 2008.
How is the work characterized by its keywords?
The work is defined by terms centering on ethnic politics, electoral instability, the misuse of resources, and the influence of political leadership in a patronage-based system.
Does the author conclude that "ancient hatreds" are the cause?
No, the author argues that while primordial fears exist, they are largely over-estimated; the violence is more strongly driven by rational interests, land disputes, and elite manipulation.
What role does the "Majimbo" debate play?
The concept of "Majimbo" (regionalism or quasi-federalism) is shown to be a potent political tool used by elites to tap into long-standing grievances and to mobilize ethnic bases for political power.
- Quote paper
- Georg Kössler (Author), 2008, The Neighbour With The Machete: An explaining view at the violence in Kenya following the General Elections on Dec. 27, 2007 from the perspective of four different theoretical models, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/112578
