This thesis studies the prospects for democratic transition in Cuba and Belarus. The theoretical part argues that civil society is an important variable in transition theory and a necessary condition for democratic transition. It furthermore argues that in relation with the political culture of one society and the respective type of regime present in one country it is decisive for a successful democratization. Therefore the theoretical framework to study democratic transition should be widened from elites to masses and from a short term perspective to a long term one. This is somewhat different from other studies that concentrate on structural factors like economic development, economic crisis or international influence to explain democratic transition.
This thesis undertakes a qualitative comparative analysis of two nontransition cases, Belarus and Cuba, to avoid the selection bias of researching only successful cases of democratic transition and to solve the problem of not finding any individually necessary or jointly sufficient conditions for democratization. The aforementioned factors are analyzed for each case, comparing the main findings and drawing conclusions.
The analysis shows that the state of civil society in both countries can only be characterized as embryonic. In the case of Belarus the relatively good starting position of the embryonic civil society after the dissolution of the USSR was not used to strengthen itself. The civil society forces lost continuously support and strength and therefore the ability to fight for democratic transition. The weakness of the Belarusian civil society was therefore a factor that led to a stabilizing of the authoritarian regime.
Inhaltsverzeichnis (Table of Contents)
- Introduction
- Chapter 1 Theoretical framework
- Introduction
- Civil Society
- Civil Society Forces
- Embryonic Civil Society
- The Role of Civil Society in Transition
- Civil Society - Regime Interaction
- Regime Type
- Political Culture
- Chapter 2 Totalitarist Cuba vs. Sultanist Belarus
- Introduction
- Cuba's Personalistic Communist Dictatorship
- Sultanism in Belarus
- Chapter 3 - Political Culture in Cuba and Belarus
- Introduction
- Sources of Political Culture
- Alexander Lukashenka, Keeping the Soviet Dream Alive!
- Fidel Castro's “Revolution” – National Unity and Social Values
- Satisfaction with How the Things Go
- Satisfaction with the Current Regime and Support for Democracy
- Chapter 4 - Civil Society in Cuba and Belarus
- Introduction
- The Emergence of an Embryonic Civil Society in Cuba – slowly but constantly
- The Varela Project and Oswaldo Paya
- The Cuban Spring and Las Damas de Blanco
- The Cuban Forum and National Dialogue
- The Abortion of the Embryo- the Set Back of Civil Society Development in Belarus
- The Political Opposition and Its Way towards Marginalization
- The Character of the Belarusian Opposition
- The Rift between the Opposition and the Belorussian Society
- The Failure of Unification and the Loss of Strength
Zielsetzung und Themenschwerpunkte (Objectives and Key Themes)
This thesis examines the prospects for democratic transition in Cuba and Belarus. It argues that civil society is crucial for democratic transition, emphasizing the importance of a long-term perspective considering both elites and masses. The work further posits that political culture interacts with the type of regime present in a country, significantly impacting successful democratization. This study contrasts the analysis of these two non-transition cases with those of successful transitions, aiming to identify necessary or jointly sufficient conditions for democratization.
- Role of civil society in democratic transitions
- Importance of political culture in understanding regime stability
- Comparative analysis of non-transition cases (Cuba and Belarus)
- Identifying factors hindering democratic transition
- Exploring the relationship between civil society and regime type
Zusammenfassung der Kapitel (Chapter Summaries)
The introduction sets the stage by discussing the significance of non-transition cases in understanding democratic transition processes. It emphasizes the importance of considering regime stability alongside regime change and criticizes the prevailing focus on successful transitions in democratization theory. The thesis proposes examining civil society and political culture as key factors in understanding non-transitions.
Chapter 1 delves into the theoretical framework, outlining the concepts of civil society, regime type, and political culture. It emphasizes the role of civil society forces, particularly the development of embryonic civil society, in facilitating democratic transition. The chapter further explores the interaction between civil society and different regime types.
Chapter 2 provides a comparative analysis of the political systems in Cuba and Belarus. It categorizes Cuba as a personalistic communist dictatorship and Belarus as a sultanist regime, highlighting the specific characteristics and dynamics of each.
Chapter 3 focuses on political culture in Cuba and Belarus. It examines the sources of political culture in both countries, analyzing the impact of historical factors and leadership figures like Alexander Lukashenka and Fidel Castro. The chapter further explores the levels of satisfaction with current regimes and support for democracy in both societies.
Chapter 4 investigates the state of civil society in both countries. It discusses the emergence and development of an embryonic civil society in Cuba, highlighting key initiatives like the Varela Project and the Cuban Forum. In contrast, it examines the setbacks and marginalization of civil society in Belarus, focusing on the challenges faced by the political opposition.
Schlüsselwörter (Keywords)
The keywords for this thesis are: democratic transition, civil society, political culture, non-transition cases, Cuba, Belarus, authoritarianism, regime change, embryonic civil society, political opposition, comparative analysis.
- Citation du texte
- M.A. Nico Rausch (Auteur), 2008, Prospects for democratic regime change in Cuba and Belarus civil society and political culture, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/115834
