Historically considered, fundamental and technical analyses have always competed, often leading to advocates that ideologically judge either a fundamental analysis or technical analysis to be the one and only analyzing concept. Behavioral finance is a relatively new scientific approach to explain psychological anomalies on the stock market, but is also more and more often considered to be able to compete with both fundamental and technical analyses. Still, do these analysis concepts really compete in practice or could they actually supplement each other with their respective strengths?
Taking the turbulent stock market phases as well as these unanswered questions about fundamental analysis, behavioral finance and the technical analysis into consideration, this thesis ultimately pursues two general objectives:
Firstly, fundamental analysis, behavioral finance and technical analysis should be scientifically examined in terms of their premises, analysis approaches, empirical evidences as well as strengths and weaknesses.
Secondly, it should be examined as to whether the fundamental analysis, behavioral finance and technical analysis have theoretical and practical synthesis capabilities that could be used for developing a synthesis concept. The synthesis concept should combine the respective strengths and eliminate the respective weaknesses of each of the three analysis concepts.
Fundamental analysis, behavioral finance and technical analysis are examined in detail. Empirical studies should prove if, and by which approaches, the analysis concept is able to predict future
stock prices.
In order to be able to develop a synthesis concept, each analysis concept is evaluated by a SWOT analysis, pursuing the objective of determining the respective strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the analysis concept being considered. Based on the previous SWOT analyses, the sixth chapter examines the synthesis capabilities of the fundamental analysis, behavioral finance and technical analysis.
In a first step, the synthesis capabilities are theoretically analyzed. Based on the theoretical consideration the synthesis capabilities are also practically examined in a second step. A broad empirical study using the example of the DAX performance index analyzes the predictive capabilities of the three analysis concepts. By evaluating the theoretical as well as the practical synthesis capabilities, a general conclusion is drawn about the
synthesis capabilities.
Inhaltsverzeichnis (Table of Contents)
- Introduction
- Information Efficiency on the Stock Market
- Efficient Market Hypothesis
- Definition and Theoretical Assumptions
- Efficiency Forms
- Classification of Fundamental Analysis, Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis
- Empirical Studies
- Preliminary Conclusion
- Efficient Market Hypothesis
- Fundamental Analysis
- Definition and Premises
- Company Evaluation Methods
- Separate Evaluation Methods
- Overall Evaluation Methods
- Present Value Methods
- Capitalized Earnings Value Approaches
- Discounted Cash Flow Approaches
- Market Multiples
- Real Options
- Present Value Methods
- Empirical Studies
- SWOT Analysis
- Preliminary Conclusion
- Behavioral Finance
- Definition and Premises
- Anomalies
- Anomalies Concerning the Investors Behavior
- Information Perception
- Information Treatment
- Decision Making
- Stock Market Anomalies
- Anomalies Concerning the Investors Behavior
- Sentiment Indicators
- Empirical Studies
- SWOT Analysis
- Preliminary Conclusion
- Technical Analysis
- Definition and Premises
- Analysis Methods
- Chart Analysis
- Basic Concepts
- Formation Analysis
- Indicator Analysis
- Trend-Following Indicators
- Oscillators
- Chart Analysis
- Empirical Studies
- SWOT Analysis
- Preliminary Conclusion
- Synthesis Capabilities of Fundamental Analysis, Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis
- Objective and Procedure
- Theoretical Synthesis Capabilities
- Practical synthesis capabilities using the example of the DAX Performance Index
- Practical Application of Fundamental Analysis, Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis
- Intrinsic Value
- Sentiment Indicators
- Technical Indicators
- Practical Synthesis Capabilities
- Practical Application of Fundamental Analysis, Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis
- Preliminary Conclusion
Zielsetzung und Themenschwerpunkte (Objectives and Key Themes)
This diploma thesis aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of fundamental analysis, behavioral finance, and technical analysis on the stock market. The author investigates the theoretical concepts of each approach and examines their practical synthesis capabilities. The thesis explores the potential of combining these methods to enhance investment decisions and ultimately improve investment performance.- Information efficiency on the stock market and the efficient market hypothesis
- The theoretical framework and practical applications of fundamental analysis, behavioral finance, and technical analysis
- Empirical studies and research findings related to the efficacy of different investment approaches
- The potential for synthesizing these approaches to enhance investment decision-making
- Practical application of the synthesized methods using the example of the DAX Performance Index
Zusammenfassung der Kapitel (Chapter Summaries)
- The introduction lays out the thesis's objectives and scope, outlining the importance of understanding the different approaches to stock market analysis.
- Chapter 2 delves into the concept of information efficiency on the stock market, focusing on the efficient market hypothesis. It explores various forms of market efficiency and how fundamental analysis, behavioral finance, and technical analysis can be classified within the framework of market efficiency.
- Chapter 3 provides a detailed explanation of fundamental analysis, its premises, and various methods used for company evaluation. This chapter discusses both separate and overall evaluation methods, including present value methods, market multiples, and real options.
- Chapter 4 examines behavioral finance, exploring the impact of investor behavior on stock market anomalies. This chapter analyzes anomalies concerning investors' behavior and capital market anomalies, including factors like information perception, treatment, and decision-making.
- Chapter 5 focuses on technical analysis, its definition, premises, and the analysis methods employed. It discusses chart analysis, including basic concepts and formation analysis, as well as indicator analysis, covering trend-following indicators and oscillators.
- Chapter 6 explores the potential for synthesizing fundamental analysis, behavioral finance, and technical analysis to improve investment decision-making. It analyzes the theoretical and practical synthesis capabilities, demonstrating a practical example using the DAX Performance Index.
Schlüsselwörter (Keywords)
This diploma thesis focuses on the analysis of financial markets, particularly the stock market. Key concepts include fundamental analysis, behavioral finance, and technical analysis. The research examines the theoretical frameworks and practical applications of these approaches, with a special focus on their potential for synthesis. Empirical studies and research findings are used to support the analysis, with the example of the DAX Performance Index serving as a practical illustration.- Citar trabajo
- Timo Schlichting (Autor), 2008, Fundamental Analysis, Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis on the Stock Market, Múnich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/132302
