Replacing traditional internal combustion engine cars by electric vehicles (EVs) offers significant advantages, such as lower CO2 emissions, lower noise pollution and lower oil consumption. Nonetheless, a potential migration of Germany's personal transportation ector towards the EV faces significant challenges like a low initial driving range and high production costs of the EV, as well as high investment costs into a supporting infrastructure. It is argued that some of these challenges form "chicken-and-egg"-problems that are particularly difficult to overcome.
We analyze these challenges using a comprehensive System Dynamics model calibrated to Germany for the period from 2010 to 2040 with endogenous infrastructure entry and exit, detailed reigonal driving behavior, technological improvement and economies of scale. We conclude that the EV will eventually overcome these initial hurdles after 2002, even though market penetration will remain limited for a long time. The impact of different recharging technologies and a potential up-front deployment of recharging infrastructure are investigated. Furthermore, we evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of policy measures in support of the EV and aggregate potential annual CO2 emission reductions due to the introduction of the EV for different scenarios.
The thesis includes:
- Concrete, numeric market potential forecasts for Germany under different scenarios and assumptions (including a rapid "Better Place"-style deployment of infrastructure)
- Overview over current EV technology
- A description of a sophisticated System Dynamics model, including algorithms to simulate driving behavior on a regional level (>450 regions for Germany)
- Sensitivity analysis for different technology development patterns and various subsidies (including city tolls for non-zero emission vehicles or infrastructure subsidies)
Model, as well as data is available from the authors upon request.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
1.1. Types and advantages of electrified vehicles
1.2. Historic overview
1.3. Barriers to entry
1.4. Modeling alternative fuel vehicle introduction dynamics in System Dynamics
2. Model description
2.1. The consumer model
2.2. The industry model
2.3. The infrastructure model
3. Model analysis
3.1. Scenario analysis
3.2. Sensitivity analysis
4. Policy measures in support of electric vehicles
4.1. Tax credits for EV purchases
4.2. Subsidies for recharging stations
4.3. Tolls for city access for high pollution vehicles
4.4. Qualitative assessment of other measures
4.5. Evaluative summary of policy measures
5. Impact of EV adoption on CO2-emissions
6. Conclusion
Research Objectives and Core Themes
This thesis investigates the potential transition of Germany's personal transportation sector to electric vehicles (EVs) until 2040. By employing a comprehensive System Dynamics model, the research addresses the complexities of market penetration, infrastructure development, and consumer adoption behavior, specifically focusing on overcoming the "chicken-and-egg" barriers inherent in new technology diffusion.
- Development of a holistic System Dynamics model for the German EV market.
- Analysis of consumer familiarity and non-linear adoption drivers.
- Impact evaluation of policy measures such as tax credits, recharging subsidies, and city tolls.
- Assessment of infrastructure deployment strategies and recharging technologies.
- Simulation of long-term environmental outcomes regarding CO2 emissions.
Excerpt from the Book
1.3. Barriers to entry
Some of the major barriers to entry could be described as “chicken-and-egg-problems”, the first of which involves the deployment of recharging infrastructure. As ICEs experienced enormous growth from the 1910s on, an entire industry and infrastructure evolved dedicated to the ICE: Petrol refineries and stations, maintenance and repair facilities. Exactly that infrastructure is missing today for alternative platforms like the EV: As long that there are only few EVs, it is not profitable to open charging or maintenance stations as demand would be low compared to the high investments necessary, but unless there are charging or maintenance stations only very few persons will purchase an EV as range will remain limited and risk to run out of fuel on the way high.
Smaller charging stations could be built at parking spots at work or at shopping centers that are highly frequented and have access to high-tension current. Larger stations could allow a complete battery exchange, something the start-up company Better Place suggests and already pursues in Israel and Denmark.
The second “chicken-and-egg-problem” concerns a lack of consumer familiarity with the EV technology. Although it might seem on first sight that an EV does not differ much from an ICE car there are quite substantial differences (Urban, Weinberg, Hauser 1996): New technologies, including new composite materials, propulsion control systems, high-pressure low-friction tires and deep-discharge batteries. New attributes, such as recharging time, limited driving range on a charge, potential stranding, and perceived hazards due to high amperages. New levels of existing attributes, such as noise (the engine is extremely quiet), smooth acceleration, no need to shift gears, and size (usually small).
Summary of Chapters
1. Introduction: Discusses the rising interest in electric mobility and outlines the research context regarding scientific and government attention.
2. Model description: Details the structure of the comprehensive System Dynamics model, split into consumer, industry, and infrastructure sections.
3. Model analysis: Presents the results of scenario and sensitivity analyses, examining market penetration and various influencing factors.
4. Policy measures in support of electric vehicles: Evaluates the effectiveness of specific interventions like tax credits, station subsidies, and city tolls.
5. Impact of EV adoption on CO2-emissions: Analyzes the potential for emission reductions based on different electricity mix forecasts.
6. Conclusion: Summarizes the key findings and provides recommendations for policy makers and directions for future research.
Keywords
Electric Vehicles, System Dynamics, Market Penetration, Infrastructure Development, Battery Technology, Consumer Familiarity, CO2 Emissions, Policy Measures, Scenario Analysis, Adoption Speed, Sustainable Transportation, Technology Diffusion, Energy Independence, Charging Stations, Germany
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary focus of this thesis?
The thesis focuses on modeling the transition of the German personal transportation sector from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles using System Dynamics.
What are the central themes discussed in the work?
The work explores consumer adoption behavior, industry cost structures, infrastructure development, and the impact of various government policy measures.
What is the main research objective?
The objective is to provide realistic forecasts on EV market penetration in Germany by accounting for complex non-linear relationships and feedback mechanisms.
Which scientific method is utilized?
The authors utilize the System Dynamics modeling methodology to simulate the socio-economic system and interactions between stakeholders over the period from 2010 to 2040.
What topics are covered in the main section of the book?
The main section covers the conceptual model design, the simulation of various scenarios (e.g., fast charging vs. battery swapping), and a detailed evaluation of policy effectiveness.
How is the "chicken-and-egg" problem addressed?
The model addresses this by simulating the interdependence between vehicle fleet size and the profitability/availability of recharging infrastructure.
How does consumer familiarity influence adoption?
Familiarity is modeled as a critical variable that dictates whether potential buyers include the EV in their purchase consideration set, acting as a "tipping point" for market success.
What is the role of policy in accelerating adoption?
Policy measures like tax credits are found to be most effective when they not only lower costs but also actively increase public awareness and visibility of the new technology.
How significant is the CO2 reduction potential?
Reductions are initially low due to slow adoption, but become significantly more impactful by 2030, though they are heavily dependent on the composition of Germany's electricity mix.
Why are regional differences considered?
Regional differences are included to account for variations in fuel efficiency in high-density traffic and to determine if infrastructure subsidies are better allocated in specific geographic areas.
- Quote paper
- Michael Stephan (Author), Anna Feller (Author), 2009, Migrating from Oil- to Electricity-Powered Vehicles: Modeling Germany's Transition to the EV until 2040 in System Dynamics, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/136810
