Zambia faces a severe electricity crisis characterized by prolonged load-shedding that has reached up to 20 hours daily in some areas, severely impacting economic activities and quality of life. This research presents a comprehensive analysis of Zambia's energy landscape and proposes a concrete strategy to eliminate load-shedding by 2027. The solution combines immediate emergency measures with medium-term investments in renewable energy diversification, grid modernization, and policy reforms. Quantitative analysis indicates that Zambia needs to add approximately 1,200- 1,500 MW of new generation capacity while implementing demand-side management strategies to reduce the current 1,300 MW deficit. The total investment required is estimated at $2-2.5 billion over three years, with specific phased implementation targets provided in this report. With coordinated execution of the proposed framework, Zambia can not only eliminate load-shedding but also build a resilient energy system that supports sustainable economic growth and achieves universal electricity access by 2030.
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- Chapter 1
- Introduction
- Chapter 2
- 2 Research Methodology
- 2.1 Data Collection and Analysis
- 2.2 Analytical Framework
- Chapter 3
- 3.0 Current Energy Landscape in Zambia
- 3.1 Heavy Reliance on Hydro-power
- 3.2 Demand Gap and Load-shedding
- 3.3 Emerging Renewable Energy Initiatives
- Chapter 4
- 4.0 Quantitative Analysis of Zambia Energy Situation
- 4.1 Current Electricity Supply- Demand Gap
- 4.2 Projected Electricity Demand Growth
- 4.3 Renewable Energy Potential assessment
- Chapter 5
- 5.0 Strategic Framework to Eliminate Load-shedding by
- 5.1 Multi-pronged Approach
- 5.2 Emergency Stabilization Measures
- 5.3 Accelerated Renewable Energy Development
- 5.4 Grid Modernization Measures
- 5.5 Demand-side Management and Energy Efficiency
- Chapter 6
- 6.0 Implementation Road-Map and Investment Requirements
- 6.1 Phased Implementation Plan
- 6.2 Investment Requirements and Financing Strategy
- 6.3 Institutional Arrangements and Governance
- Chapter 7: Conclusion and Path-Forward
- Reference
- Appendices
Objective & Key Themes
This research aims to provide a comprehensive investigation into how Zambia can eliminate load-shedding by 2027. It offers a detailed analysis of the country's energy landscape and proposes a concrete, multi-faceted strategy to address the severe electricity crisis, thereby fostering sustainable economic growth and universal electricity access.
- Comprehensive analysis of Zambia's energy landscape and supply-demand gaps.
- Strategic framework for renewable energy diversification and accelerated deployment.
- Measures for grid modernization and regional interconnection.
- Implementation of demand-side management and energy efficiency strategies.
- Assessment of investment requirements and financing strategies.
- Policy reforms and institutional arrangements for effective governance.
Excerpt from the Book
3.0 Current Energy Landscape in Zambia
Zambia's energy system is characterized by an overwhelming dependence on hydropower, which accounts for approximately 90% of its total installed generation capacity of 3,356.6 MW . The country's major hydroelectric facilities are concentrated in three main locations: Kafue Gorge (990 MW), Kafue Gorge Lower (750 MW), and Itezhi Tezhi Dam (120 MW), with additional significant capacity from the Kariba North Bank power station. This heavy reliance on hydropower has made Zambia highly vulnerable to climate variability and drought conditions, which have intensified in recent years due to climate change.
The 2023-2024 drought- declared a national disaster by President Hakainde Hichilema in February 2024-_reduced hydropower generation by close to 80% compared to normal levels. Water levels in Lake Kariba, the world's largest man-made reservoir and a critical power source for both Zambia and Zimbabwe, dropped to historically low levels, forcing the Zambezi River Authority to allocate only 27 billion cubic meters of water for power generation in 2024, to be shared equally between Zambia and Zimbabwe. Each country received just 13.8 billion cubic meters, substantially below what is needed for full capacity operation of their power stations.
ZESCO reports a current power deficit of 1,300 MW against its installed capacity of 3,356.6 MW. This significant gap between supply and demand has forced the utility to implement extensive load-shedding measures that have escalated in severity throughout 2024 and 2025. The load-shedding timeline demonstrates a deteriorating situation.
Chapter Summaries
Chapter 1: Introduction: Zambia's Energy Crisis: Describes the severe electricity crisis in Zambia, its causes (hydropower reliance, drought), and devastating economic and social impacts, setting the stage for the research to find a comprehensive solution.
Chapter 2: Research Methodology: Details the mixed-methods approach combining quantitative and qualitative analysis, outlining data collection sources and the analytical framework used to understand energy challenges.
Chapter 3: Current Energy Landscape in Zambia: Provides an overview of Zambia's energy system, highlighting its heavy dependence on hydropower, the significant supply-demand gap causing load-shedding, and initial renewable energy initiatives.
Chapter 4: Quantitative Analysis of Zambia's Energy Situation: Presents a quantitative assessment of the electricity supply-demand gap, projected demand growth, and an evaluation of Zambia's untapped renewable energy potential.
Chapter 5: Strategic Framework to Eliminate Load-Shedding by 2027: Outlines a multi-pronged strategy comprising emergency stabilization, accelerated renewable energy deployment, grid modernization, and demand-side management.
Chapter 6: Implementation Road-Map and Investment Requirements: Details a phased implementation plan (0-36 months) and estimates the total investment required ($2-2.5 billion) with a strategy for multi-source financing.
Chapter 7: Conclusion and Path-Forward: Summarizes the feasibility of eliminating load-shedding by 2027 through the proposed strategy, emphasizing the need for coordinated action and investment for sustainable energy future.
Keywords
Zambia, load-shedding, energy crisis, hydropower, renewable energy, solar power, grid modernization, energy efficiency, demand-side management, investment, policy reforms, climate change, electricity deficit, economic impact, sustainable development.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is this work fundamentally about?
This work fundamentally investigates how Zambia can eliminate its severe load-shedding crisis by 2027 through a comprehensive strategy that diversifies the energy mix and modernizes infrastructure.
What are the central thematic fields?
The central thematic fields include Zambia's energy landscape, the impact of load-shedding, renewable energy potential, quantitative analysis of supply-demand gaps, strategic frameworks for energy transition, and investment requirements.
What is the primary objective or research question?
The primary objective is to provide a comprehensive strategy, supported by quantitative analysis, to eliminate load-shedding in Zambia by 2027 and build a resilient energy system.
Which scientific method is used?
The research employs a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative analysis (statistical modeling, scenario projection) and qualitative assessment (stakeholder perspectives, policy evaluation).
What is covered in the main part?
The main part covers Zambia's current energy landscape, a quantitative analysis of its energy situation, a strategic framework to eliminate load-shedding (including emergency measures, renewable deployment, grid modernization, and demand-side management), and an implementation roadmap with investment requirements.
Which keywords characterize the work?
Keywords characterizing the work include load-shedding, renewable energy, Zambia, energy crisis, hydropower, grid modernization, energy efficiency, and sustainable development.
What is the current power deficit in Zambia and its economic impact?
Zambia faces a current power deficit of 1,300-1,400 MW against an installed capacity of 3,356.6 MW, with available capacity reduced to 2,000-2,100 MW due to drought and technical constraints. This deficit reduces Zambia's GDP by an estimated 2-3% annually, severely impacting businesses and quality of life.
What are the four pillars of the proposed strategic framework?
The strategic framework consists of four interconnected pillars: Emergency Stabilization Measures, Accelerated Renewable Energy Deployment, Grid Modernization and Regional Interconnection, and Demand-Side Management and Energy Efficiency.
What is the estimated investment required to eliminate load-shedding by 2027?
The total investment required to eliminate load-shedding by 2027 is estimated at $2-2.5 billion, encompassing generation capacity, grid infrastructure, and demand-side programs, with a financing strategy leveraging public, private, international climate, and commercial funding.
- Quote paper
- Z. Yowano (Author), 2025, Comprehensive Strategy to Eliminate Load-Shedding in Zambia by 2027, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/1672383
