Abstract
Geographic profiling is an investigative methodology that tries to determine the most probable residence of a serial offender by a geographical analysis of the majority of the crime locations (Chainey and Ratcliffe, 2005, p.27).
This literature-based dissertation focuses on the efficacy of geographic profiling methods. It aims to find out if recent geographic profiling methods are really supportive to the criminal investigative process and to what extent they can contribute to solve criminal cases. As a structured literature review, it seeks to evaluate the relevant evidence about the use of geographic profiling in terms of criminal detection and practical investigative applicability. This is done by using other completed literature reviews or research reviews, including evidence from these reviews and, additionally, by reviewing the use of GIS (Geographic Information Systems) in recent criminal cases.
This dissertation provides an insight into recent applications of geographic profiling and a presentation of the main profiling systems. The results of this dissertation are achieved by evaluating and comparing data from empirical research and by reviewing the evidence about the efficacy of this technique.
The efficacy and relative success of the application of geographic profiling in criminal investigations are supported by presenting a range of criminal cases solved with the contribution of geographic profiling methods. On the other hand, deficiencies in geographic profiling systems and applications are shown by the presentation of several other independent studies.
Overall, this dissertation concludes that the evidence reviewed suggests that geographic profiling can contribute to solve criminal cases to a crucial extent, i.e. in cases of locating the offender’s base or predicting where the next offence location is to be found, and thus, this thesis gives strong support for the use of geographic profiling in criminal justice investigations. Finally, the evidence also points to a growing importance of predictive crime prevention applications of this technology in future.
Table of Contents
Chapter 1: Geographic Profiling and Criminal Cases
How can Geographic Profiling Help in Criminal Case Processing?
Terminology of Geographic Profiling
Geographic Profiling in Criminal Cases
Measuring how much Geographic Profiling Contributes to Criminal Justice’s Success
Chapter 2: Theories of Travelling Behaviour Applied to Geographic Profiling
Typologies of Serial Offenders
Routine Activity, Rational Choice and Crime Pattern Theory
Behavioural Geography and Environmental Criminology
Travelling Habits by Offending Groups & Journey-to-Crime Conduct
Linking Crime Series by Modus Operandi: CCA – Comparative Case Analysis & CPA – Crime Pattern Analysis
Commuter and Marauder Models
Decay Functions in Geographic Profiling
Chapter 3: Geographic Profiling: How does it Work?
Implementation of Geographical and Criminological Theories in Geographic Profiling
Introduction into the Main Profiling Systems and Software and their Use
Criminal Investigation Programmes interacting with Geographic Profiling Systems
Case Studies: Examples for Practical Applications of Geographic Profiling in Police Work
Chapter 4: A Review on the Research Evidence on the Effectiveness of Geographic Profiling
Review of the Research Evidence on Geographic Profiling
Deficiencies in Geographic Profiling Techniques & Geographic Profiling Evaluation Methodologies
Human investigative skills vs. Geographic Profiling Software & Systems
Research Studies on the Efficacy of Geographic Profiling Systems
Conclusion on the Efficacy of Geographic Profiling Methods
Objectives and Research Focus
This dissertation aims to evaluate the effectiveness of geographic profiling methods as tools for criminal investigations. By conducting a structured literature review and analyzing empirical research, the study seeks to determine whether these methodologies are truly supportive of the investigative process and to what extent they contribute to solving criminal cases.
- Examination of the conceptual basis of geographic profiling via criminological theories.
- Review of current profiling systems and software used in law enforcement.
- Assessment of the efficacy of geographic profiling through case study analysis.
- Comparison of automated actuarial techniques versus human investigative skills.
- Identification of technical and practical limitations in current profiling methodologies.
Excerpt from the Book
Commuter and Marauder Models
Spatial behaviour of criminals can be examined by the distance an offender travels. In his study of serial murder, Hickey in 1997 found three geographic categories: the travelling killers; local killers; and place-specific killers (Rossmo, 2000, p. 149). Crucial to each category is the question how far from the scene of crime the home base of the offender is located. Foundation for the model of anchor point / base, activity space and awareness space as described in chapter 1 is the circle hypothesis developed by Canter and Larkin in 1993 (Canter and Youngs, 2008, p. 165). The also called Circle Theory of Environmental Range (Ainsworth, Kocs, and Irwin in Young, 2006) works by using the distance from the two furthest known locations of crime as a diameter and then drawing a circle around this area. Within this circle the offender’s home/ base most likely is to be found (Young, 2006).
In this circle hypothesis two different types of offenders are identified: the commuter and the marauder (also ‘neighbourhood offender’, Canter and Youngs, 2008, p. 159). They are referred to as the marauder and commuter model (see Appendices 2 & 3). Rossmo relates to an FBI serial rape study of 1995 to describe commuter and marauder characteristics. In this study it turned out that besides the fact that commuters commute to a different region outside of their home range and activity space to commit their crimes they also showed a more ritualised behaviour than marauders. Contrary to this, the marauder’s residence functions as the base for his criminal offences. Commuters tend to travel routes of a longer distance to reach their offence locations (2000, pp. 42-43 & p.150). The reason lies in their attempt to avoid every connection between their offence locations and their residences which implies that they must be mobile to a certain extent. Even though both models are applied, the commuter model is not as prevalent as the marauder model. As most crimes possess a centralized home/ base within the circle (i.e. hunting area), the marauder model is more often applied (Young, 2006).
Summary of Chapters
Chapter 1: Geographic Profiling and Criminal Cases: This chapter introduces geographic profiling as an investigative instrument and defines key terminology while discussing how the relative success of these methods can be measured.
Chapter 2: Theories of Travelling Behaviour Applied to Geographic Profiling: This section covers criminological theories such as routine activity and crime pattern theory to explain how spatial behavior influences offender decision-making.
Chapter 3: Geographic Profiling: How does it Work?: This chapter details the technical implementation of profiling, explores major software systems, and presents case studies illustrating their practical application in police investigations.
Chapter 4: A Review on the Research Evidence on the Effectiveness of Geographic Profiling: This section critically evaluates research evidence, addresses deficiencies in current methodologies, and compares algorithmic profiling with human investigative skills.
Keywords
Geographic Profiling, GIS, Criminal Investigation, Offender Residence, Serial Offender, Crime Mapping, Spatial Behaviour, Journey-to-Crime, Routine Activity Theory, Crime Pattern Theory, Modus Operandi, Crime Hotspots, Commuter Model, Marauder Model, Distance Decay.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary focus of this dissertation?
The work focuses on the efficacy of geographic profiling methods and their actual support to the criminal investigative process, specifically examining to what extent they contribute to solving criminal cases.
What are the central themes discussed in the study?
Central themes include the theoretical basis of criminal spatial behaviour, the technical functioning of profiling software, the evaluation of investigative effectiveness, and the comparison between human expertise and algorithmic models.
What is the main research question or objective?
The core objective is to determine whether recent geographic profiling methods effectively support police investigations and to what degree they assist in the successful resolution of crime.
Which scientific methods are employed for this research?
The study utilizes a structured, literature-based dissertation approach, performing a review of empirical research, comparative case studies, and existing systematic reviews to synthesize current evidence.
What topics are covered in the main section of the document?
The main sections cover criminological theories (routine activity, rational choice), an overview of profiling systems like Rigel and Dragnet, detailed case study analysis, and critical reviews of performance metrics such as error distance and hit score.
Which specific keywords define this research?
Key terms include geographic profiling, GIS, spatial behaviour, serial offending, crime mapping, and distance decay, among others listed in the keyword section.
How does the study address the 'commuter' and 'marauder' offender models?
The study explains these models within the context of the Circle Theory of Environmental Range, noting that while marauders operate from a base within the crime cluster, commuters travel outside their normal range, posing a challenge for current software algorithms.
What conclusion does the author reach regarding the effectiveness of geographic profiling?
The author concludes that despite some technical limitations and the need for high-quality data, geographic profiling is an essential modern investigative tool that provides high-quality insights for solving complex, high-profile criminal cases.
- Citation du texte
- Viola Abelius (Auteur), 2011, Mapping the Criminal, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/177322
