Over 900 million people were suffering from hunger in 2010 and in December the United Nations basic food price index reached a new record. The resulting food insecurity is often of chronic nature but may be temporally increased due to events like draughts, floods or conflicts. To enable timely and adequate response it is important to identify and forecast the most urgent arising food security crises where extensive international aid is needed. For this purpose there exist several food security early warning systems. They track the status of food supply, food access, food utilization and food stability to monitor where a crisis is impending. While a wide range of production indicators covers the supply side, other pillars are lacking behind. Therefore new vulnerability and health indicators are developed for the integration into early warning systems.
This paper tries to draw attention to a partially neglected area in the intent to improve food security early warning systems - the link of food insecurity and conflict.
Contents
1 Introduction
2 Definitions
3 Food security and conflict
3.1 Conflict as cause of food insecurity
3.2 Food insecurity as cause of conflict
3.3 Reaction to food insecurity during conflict
4 Measuring of conflict and the integration into famine early warning systems
5 Case study: The Eritrean-Ethiopian war 1998-2000
6 Conclusion
Research Objectives and Themes
The primary objective of this paper is to analyze the interrelationship between food insecurity and conflict, specifically focusing on how these dynamics affect the efficacy of early warning systems. The research investigates the bidirectional nature of the link between conflict and food insecurity, examines how conflict alters household coping mechanisms, and addresses the challenge of integrating conflict analysis into existing famine early warning systems to improve humanitarian response.
- The impact of conflict on food availability, access, utilization, and stability.
- Household coping strategies in peacetime versus wartime environments.
- The use of food insecurity as a weapon in conflicts and its humanitarian consequences.
- Methods and limitations for integrating conflict analysis into early warning systems.
- A detailed case study of the Eritrean-Ethiopian war (1998-2000) regarding aid and food security.
Excerpt from the Book
3.1 CONFLICT AS CAUSE OF FOOD INSECURITY
Conflict harms all four pillars of food security. It reduces supply, access and utilization of food and leads to higher volatility (Bora, Ceccacci et al., 2010). On macro-level – the focus of most economic research – conflict and food security interact through the following channels:
One of the most evident consequences on food security is represented by the shortfall in food production. FAO, 2002 estimates a forgone production due to conflicts worth over $100 billion between 1970 and 1997. A figure, which would have been sufficient to lower the occurrence of undernourishment by 330 million people (Bora, Ceccacci et al., 2010). Messer, Cohen et al., 1998 and Teodosijevic, 2003 find shortfalls in per capita food production of 2 to 5 % annually what is – based on production figures between 1970 and 1997 (FAO, 2011) – approximately equivalent to the FAO numbers. In addition to hindering peasants from tilling their fields, conflicts may impair the production possibilities by the loss of assets used in cultivating land, killing or raiding livestock, loss of human capital or by long-term blocking access to the required resources due to e.g. landmines.
Another important effect on food security is conflict-induced migration, which affects food supply and access. Migration can occur voluntarily as coping strategy but is mostly considered a forced consequence of conflict (Justino, 2010). Sometimes violent conflicts even include displacement of people as a goal itself (Lischer, 2007). Although reliable data on displacement – especially internal displacement – is hard to obtain, the importance is obvious. According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center 27 million people were displaced internally by the end of 2009 (IDMC, 2010). Besides the forgone food production induced by emigration from the refugees’ own land, displaced people place an additional burden on the food security of the recipient’s communities because refugees are especially depending on food aid (Bora, Ceccacci et al., 2010), struggle to find work and are often less productive than non-refugees (Justino, 2009).
Summary of Chapters
1 Introduction: This chapter outlines the global hunger crisis and introduces the research focus on the often-overlooked link between food insecurity and conflict.
2 Definitions: This chapter defines the core concepts of food security and its four pillars, as well as the nature of mass violent conflict.
3 Food security and conflict: This chapter provides a detailed analysis of how conflict exacerbates food insecurity and how, conversely, food insecurity can contribute to conflict, while also discussing household coping mechanisms.
3.1 Conflict as cause of food insecurity: This section explores specific channels, such as production shortfalls and forced migration, through which conflict directly harms food security.
3.2 Food insecurity as cause of conflict: This section examines the bidirectional relationship, analyzing how resource scarcity and food price spikes can foster violence and political instability.
3.3 Reaction to food insecurity during conflict: This section discusses the complexities of providing humanitarian aid in conflict zones, including the risks of aid being diverted or misused.
4 Measuring of conflict and the integration into famine early warning systems: This chapter evaluates the current ability of early warning systems to incorporate conflict data and the practical challenges therein.
5 Case study: The Eritrean-Ethiopian war 1998-2000: This chapter applies the theoretical framework to a specific historical conflict to demonstrate the impact of war on aid delivery and food security.
6 Conclusion: The final chapter summarizes the findings and advocates for a stronger integration of conflict analysis into early warning systems to improve future disaster responses.
Keywords
Food security, conflict, early warning systems, famine, migration, coping mechanisms, humanitarian aid, food production, vulnerability, micro-level analysis, macro-level impact, Eritrea, Ethiopia, resource scarcity, development economics.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fundamental focus of this research?
The paper examines the intersection of food insecurity and mass violent conflict, aiming to understand how these two phenomena exacerbate each other and how that knowledge can be used to improve early warning systems.
What are the central themes covered in this work?
The central themes include the four pillars of food security (availability, access, utilization, stability), the impact of war on household coping strategies, the role of international aid in conflict zones, and the challenges of conflict prediction.
What is the primary objective of the research?
The primary objective is to highlight the neglected link between food insecurity and conflict and to argue for a stronger integration of conflict analysis into famine early warning systems.
Which scientific methods are utilized?
The author uses a multidisciplinary approach, synthesizing existing economic literature, development theories, and conflict studies, supported by an empirical case study analysis of the Eritrean-Ethiopian war.
What is covered in the main body of the work?
The main body covers definitions of food security and conflict, an analysis of their bidirectional relationship, an exploration of household coping mechanisms in wartime, and a discussion on integrating conflict data into monitoring systems.
Which keywords characterize this work?
Key terms include food security, conflict, early warning systems, humanitarian aid, household coping mechanisms, and displacement.
How does conflict specifically alter household coping mechanisms?
Conflict increases transaction costs, destroys social networks, and creates immense uncertainty, forcing households to abandon standard coping strategies like crop diversification in favor of high-risk or unsustainable survival actions.
What does the case study of the Eritrean-Ethiopian war reveal?
The case study illustrates that when conflict is not adequately factored into aid planning, it leads to significant delays and inefficiencies, proving that pre-conflict analysis is vital for effective humanitarian responses.
- Citation du texte
- Robert Messerle (Auteur), 2011, Famine Early Warning Systems during Conflict, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/177973
