1. Introduction
1.1 Way of Posing a Problem
Today’s global economy depends on nearly one single resource: oil! Oil is the main driving force of the global economy.
The global hunger for raw materials is increasing particularly in fast growing economies such as China, India or even Brazil. Globalization, the growth of population and the ever-advancing technologies are the main reasons for this growth in demand. Experts estimate that for example, China’s demand for energy will triple by 2020. Commodities, especially oil, are scarce goods on the world markets. This becomes apparent, above all, by soaring commodity prices. In the next few years the pace of growth in China’s demand for oil could be a key factor contributing to further increases in the prices for crude oil and refined petroleum products. Those price increases could affect the demand for petroleum and influence the investment decisions of refiners worldwide.
Oil is a finite resource. The following paper deals with the question of the effects and impact on the global oil market associated with the rising demand for raw materials and economic growth in China.
1.2 Research Objective and Thesis organisation
The aim of this bachelor thesis is to clarify the effects of to the growing demand for oil on the global market. China, a country that is currently experiencing an incredible rate of economic growth, serves as a dynamic example. This situation results in a series of questions the answers of which must be based on an extensive knowledge of the global resources of raw materials to produce energy and also on their availability. It also needs some insight into the regularities of the market for energies, its way of operation and its variables. This thesis starts by describing the formation of oil to make transparent that the genesis of oil comprises a long time interval, which makes oil therefore a precious good. Oil consumption as well as the distinction between the terms reserves and resources play here an important role. The social relevance of oil and the oil peak in the subsequent chapters, are an important basis to understand price and market developments. The chapter "Trading with Oil-the global oil market” is to give an insight and overview of the current oil market and the underlying system. ......
Table of Contents
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 WAY OF POSING A PROBLEM
1.2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVE AND THESIS ORGANISATION
2. OVERVIEW OF OIL
2.1 OIL RESERVOIRS AND OIL PRODUCTION
2.2 OIL CONSUMPTION
2.3 RESERVES, RESOURCES AND GLOBAL ALLOCATION OF OIL
3. OIL AND ITS SOCIAL IMPACT
3.1 THE MODERN HISTORY OF OIL
3.2 THE FIRST WORLD WAR
3.3 THE SECOND WORLD WAR
3.4 THE TWO WORLDWIDE OIL CRISIS
3.5. TODAY'S SITUATION
4. THE OIL PEAK
4.1 PEAK OIL FORECASTS AND THEORIES
4.2 CONSEQUENCES OF THE PEAK OIL
4.3 CRITICISM OF PEAK OIL
5. TRADING WITH OIL- THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET
5.1 PLACE OF TRADING, FORM OF TRADING AND LOGISTICS
5.2 PRICE FORMATION
5.3 ASIAN ENERGY MARKETS- AN OUTLOOK
6. THE ROLE OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGIES IN CHINA
7. CHINA'S THIRST FOR OIL - THE WAKENING OF THE PETRO DRAGON
7.1 CHANGES IN CHINA'S OIL MARKETS
7.2 HOW TO COVER CHINA'S RISING OIL CONSUMPTION - A GEOPOLITICAL QUESTION
7.3 RISING OIL CONSUMPTION-CONSEQUENCES AND IMPACT ON THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET
7.3.1 POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES
7.3.2 ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES
8. CONCLUSION
Research Objectives & Topics
The bachelor thesis examines the effects of China's rapidly growing demand for oil on the global oil market. The research explores how China’s industrialization and economic growth influence global energy resource availability, trade dynamics, and price volatility, while also evaluating the role of alternative energy sources in mitigating these dependencies.
- Analysis of global oil production and consumption trends
- Evaluation of "Peak Oil" theories and geopolitical impacts
- Assessment of the mechanisms of the global oil market and price formation
- Investigation into China's shift from an oil exporter to a major importer
- Study of the geopolitical and environmental consequences of China's oil consumption
Excerpt from the Book
2.1 Oil Reservoirs and Oil Production
Petroleum is a naturally occurring, flammable liquid, which consists of a complex mixture of hydrocarbons of various molecular weights and lesser quantities of organic molecules containing sulphur, oxygen, nitrogen and some metals, that are found in geological formations beneath the Earth's surface.
Petroleum is formed from dead organic materials such as algae or wooden materials. They are accumulated and deposited over the course of several hundred thousand to several million years in areas of high organic matter productivity, which can include nutrient rich coastal up-welling, swamps, shallow seas or lakes.
If low-oxygen conditions exist near the sea area of the seabed, rich sedimentary sequences with a high proportion of biogenic material will be formed. Low-oxygen conditions can be created by overproduction of organic matter or in environments where poor water circulation leads to stagnation. The absence of oxygen in the depositional environment impedes the decomposition of biomass, and the sapropel is formed. Over geological time, the organic matter mixes with mud and is buried under heavy layers of sediment resulting in high levels of heat and pressure (diagenesis). This process causes the organic matter to change, first into a waxy material known as kerogen, which is found in various oil shales around the world, and then, with more heat and more pressure, into liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons via a process known as catagenesis. General conditions for the formation of crude oil is a limited range of pressure and temperature, known as the oil window.
Summary of Chapters
1. INTRODUCTION: Provides an overview of the global dependence on oil and outlines the research objective regarding the impact of China's economic growth on energy markets.
2. OVERVIEW OF OIL: Describes the geological formation of petroleum, explains the oil window, and defines the distinction between oil reserves and resources.
3. OIL AND ITS SOCIAL IMPACT: Traces the historical relevance of oil from the Industrial Revolution through the World Wars to the major oil crises of the 20th century.
4. THE OIL PEAK: Analyzes the concept of Peak Oil, examining various forecasts and the systemic risks associated with a potential depletion of conventional oil production.
5. TRADING WITH OIL- THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET: Investigates the mechanics of global oil trading, the differences between futures and spot markets, and the factors influencing global price formation.
6. THE ROLE OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGIES IN CHINA: Discusses China's strategic investments in renewable energy and nuclear power to address its rising domestic energy demand.
7. CHINA'S THIRST FOR OIL - THE WAKENING OF THE PETRO DRAGON: Examines China’s transition to a major oil importer and the resulting geopolitical and environmental impacts on the global community.
8. CONCLUSION: Synthesizes the findings, highlighting the systemic interdependence of the global economy on China's future energy policy and the necessity for global energy strategy adjustments.
Keywords
China, Oil consumption, Global oil market, Peak Oil, Geopolitics, Energy security, Crude oil, Fossil fuels, Renewable energy, Economic growth, Resource management, Petroleum, Oil production, Trade, Environment
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary focus of this thesis?
The thesis investigates the global economic and geopolitical consequences of China's increasing demand for oil, analyzing how this rising consumption challenges the stability of the global energy market.
What are the central themes of the research?
The central themes include the geological basics of oil formation, the historical development of oil usage, the theoretical concept of "Peak Oil," market pricing mechanisms, and the strategic shift in Chinese energy policies.
What is the main research objective?
The goal is to clarify the systemic effects that China's rapid economic growth and subsequent oil demand have on the global availability and pricing of energy resources.
Which scientific methodology is applied?
The work utilizes a descriptive and analytical approach, synthesizing existing literature, market data, and historical case studies to illustrate the relationship between emerging economies and global energy trade.
What topics are covered in the main body?
The main body covers the physical properties of oil, the historical role of oil in global conflicts, theories regarding oil production limits, international trading practices, and specific analysis of China's infrastructure and political strategies.
Which keywords best describe the paper?
The most relevant keywords include China, Oil consumption, Peak Oil, Geopolitics, Energy security, Fossil fuels, and Global oil market.
How does the author characterize the shift in Chinese market position?
The author describes China's transition from a former oil exporter to a dominant net importer, emphasizing how this shift forces Beijing into aggressive global trade relations and energy diplomacy.
What does the thesis conclude regarding the impact of Peak Oil on China?
The conclusion suggests that while Peak Oil poses a long-term threat to global supply, China's current response involves a combination of securing foreign resource rights and accelerating the adoption of alternative, renewable energy technologies.
- Citation du texte
- Carina Schlesing (Auteur), 2011, China´s Rising Oil Consumption and its Impact on the Global Oilmarket, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/189349
