This thesis seeks to explore the two working hypotheses: Firstly, that Napoleon’s alleged military superiority in terms of skill and battlefield competence over his peers can be empirically quantified and proven. Secondly, that the results of Napoleonic warfare can be predicted by applying the theory of Contest Success Functions to these battles.
To address these claims this paper is organized into four sections:
Theory
The first of the conceptual sections summarizes the theoretical underpinning behind the economical understanding of conflict. This so called ‘second approach’ and its merits are outlined and the history of these theoretical concepts is explained. Chapter three introduces the Ratio Contest Success Function (RCSF) put forth by Tullock and the Difference Contest Success Function (DCSF) employed by Hirshleifer, the concepts for predicting probabilities of success in conflict theory.
History
The fourth chapter gives a brief report on warfare during the Napoleonic ages. A special emphasis lies on an analysis that evaluates if the key parameters have been homogenous over the time and what kind of technology was employed during these battles. The results are then compared with the demands of conflict theory. The fifth chapter then explicates the data set. The different variables that could be obtained are introduced and at last the scope of the further analysis is specified. This is done by picking the variables that actually can be used for an in-depth quantitative.
Modelling
In the four chapters that deal with the actual modelling, the theory is applied on the historical data to yield the results we need to verify the working hypotheses. After the two different estimators used have been introduced in chapter six, the chapters seven and eight deal with utilising each of the estimators to answer these questions. The results from the estimates are interpreted and are compared in chapter nine. In addition, chapter nine attempts to weigh the explanatory value of the two approaches and places them in the historical perspective.
Résumé
Chapter ten answers comments on Napoleon’s personal worth on the battlefield and applies the findings of the empirical work on three short case studies. The subsequent summary then merges the results of the whole study and concludes with follow-up questions for future research.
Table of Contents
- Introduction
- Theory
- The Economy of Conflict - The Second Approach
- Modelling Contest via the Contest Success Functions
- Contest Success Functions in General
- The Ratio Contest Success Function
- The Difference Contest Success Function
- Choosing the Right Contest Success Function
- History
- The Essentials about Napoleonic Warfare
- The Data Set
- Modelling
- The Two Ways of Estimating a CSF
- The OLS Estimator and its Shortcomings
- The Logit-Model
- Synopsis of the Estimators
- Fitting the Ratio CSF via the Linear Probabilistic Model
- Approach and Parameters
- Interpretation
- Fitting the Difference CSF via the Logit Function
- Approach and Parameters
- Interpretation
- Ratio or Difference CSF? - Comparing the Results
- Decision Time: The Best Model
- Interpretation of the Best Model
- The Two Ways of Estimating a CSF
- Résumé
- How much was Napoleon actually worth?
- Case Study: 40,000 men
- Case Study: Jena and Auerstedt
- Case Study: Austerlitz
- How much was Napoleon actually worth?
Objectives and Key Themes
This thesis aims to analyze Napoleon's military superiority using an econometric approach based on economic conflict theory. It seeks to quantify the impact of Napoleon's presence on the battlefield using statistical modeling techniques. The study avoids purely historical analysis, focusing instead on a quantitative assessment.
- Quantitative analysis of Napoleon's military impact.
- Application of economic conflict theory to military engagements.
- Development and comparison of econometric models to assess battlefield success.
- Evaluation of different contest success functions (CSFs).
- Case studies illustrating the estimated effect of Napoleon's presence.
Chapter Summaries
Introduction: This chapter introduces the existing research on Napoleon's military performance, highlighting the limitations of purely historical or practical military science approaches. It emphasizes the need for a quantitative analysis to objectively assess Napoleon's impact on battlefield outcomes. The chapter contrasts qualitative historical analysis with the quantitative econometric approach employed in this thesis.
Theory: This chapter presents the theoretical framework for the econometric analysis. It introduces the concept of the "economy of conflict" and explains the application of contest success functions (CSFs) to model the outcomes of military battles. Different types of CSFs, such as ratio and difference functions, are introduced and compared, laying the groundwork for the statistical analysis in later chapters.
History: This chapter provides a concise overview of the historical context of Napoleonic warfare, establishing the groundwork for the subsequent quantitative analysis. It provides crucial background information relevant to the data set and the econometric models that are to be developed. This understanding of the historical context is necessary to properly interpret the statistical findings.
Modelling: This section presents the econometric methodology used in the thesis. It details the two primary approaches for estimating a CSF: the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimator and the Logit model. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed, highlighting the reasons for choosing one over the other in specific contexts. The chapter discusses how these models are applied to the Napoleonic dataset to quantify the effect of Napoleon's presence.
Résumé: This chapter presents a summary of the findings from the econometric analysis. It synthesizes the conclusions drawn from the different case studies and explains their implications within the broader context of the thesis. The chapter aims to provide a clear and concise overview of the key insights gained from the quantitative analysis of Napoleon's military performance.
Keywords
Napoleon, military superiority, econometrics, economic conflict theory, contest success functions (CSFs), quantitative analysis, OLS estimator, logit model, battlefield success, statistical modeling, Napoleonic Wars.
Frequently Asked Questions: Econometric Analysis of Napoleon's Military Superiority
What is the main topic of this text?
This text presents an econometric analysis of Napoleon's military success, using economic conflict theory and statistical modeling to quantify his impact on battlefield outcomes. It moves beyond purely historical accounts to offer a quantitative assessment of his strategic value.
What methods are used in this analysis?
The analysis employs econometric techniques, specifically focusing on contest success functions (CSFs). Two main approaches for estimating these functions are used: the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimator and the Logit model. These models are applied to a dataset of Napoleonic battles to determine the impact of Napoleon's presence.
What are Contest Success Functions (CSFs)?
CSFs are mathematical functions used in economic conflict theory to model the probability of success in a competitive situation, such as a military battle. The text explores different types of CSFs, including ratio and difference functions, and compares their effectiveness in this specific context.
What theoretical framework underpins this study?
The study is grounded in the "economy of conflict" theory, which provides a framework for analyzing conflicts using economic principles. This framework allows for a quantitative assessment of the resources invested and the outcomes achieved in military engagements.
What data is used in this analysis?
The analysis uses a dataset of battles from the Napoleonic Wars. The text provides details about the data set within the "History" chapter, but the specific contents aren't detailed in the preview.
What are the key findings of the analysis?
The preview does not provide the specific results of the econometric analysis. Instead, it outlines the methodology used and the structure of the analysis, promising a detailed summary of the findings in the "Résumé" chapter.
What are the key themes explored in this text?
Key themes include quantitative analysis of Napoleon's military impact, application of economic conflict theory to military history, development and comparison of econometric models, evaluation of different CSFs, and case studies illustrating Napoleon's influence.
How does this study differ from purely historical approaches?
Unlike purely historical analyses, this study utilizes a quantitative, econometric approach to objectively assess Napoleon's military impact. It focuses on statistical modeling and data analysis to generate quantifiable results, moving beyond qualitative assessments of historical sources.
What are the chapter summaries?
The preview provides summaries for each chapter, outlining the introduction, theoretical framework, historical context, econometric methodology, and finally a summary of the findings.
What are the objectives of this thesis?
The primary objective is to quantitatively analyze Napoleon's military superiority using econometrics and economic conflict theory. This includes quantifying his impact on the battlefield, developing and comparing econometric models, and evaluating different CSFs.
- Citation du texte
- Felix Christoph Lotzin (Auteur), 2010, The Emperor on the Battlefield: Napoleon's Worth as a Military Commander, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/193815
