Sub-Saharan Africa is practically absent from the manufactured export scene and the “dynamics of export growth and its technological upgrading are completely bypassing the region” (Lall/Pietrobelli 2002: 25). While the East Asian emerging markets and recently China have been successful in the diversification of exports over the past decades, African(1) economies still remain almost totally dependent on their traditional export products. Their share of global manufactured exports is almost zero. Therefore it is “clear that Africa has suffered a chronic failure of economic growth [and export diversification]. The problem for analysis is to determine its causes.” (Collier/ Gunning 1999: 3-4) While some authors, as Wood and Mayer (2001), and Karshenas (2001), emphasize structural constraints limiting the process of structural transformation and export diversification - known as the resource-based thesis - other economists as Collier/Gunning (1999a), World Bank (2000), Lall/Pietrobelli (2002), Rodrik (1999) and Soludo (1998) explain Africa’s low share of manufactured exports and the lack of industrialization mainly as policy-induced.
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1 The terms “Africa” and “Sub-Saharan Africa” (henceforth SSA) refer in this paper to the Sub-Saharan African countries except South Africa.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. Structural Transformation, Growth and Trade
3. Determinants of East Asia’s Success
4. Determinants of Africa’s Export Structure
4.1. The Resource-based Thesis
4.2. The “Double Failure” of Economic Policy
4.3. High Transaction Costs, Low Productivity and High Risks
5. Prospects for Africa: Resource Extraction or Diversification?
6. Conclusion and Recommendations
References
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