Prospects of individual electromobility


Term Paper, 2011

23 Pages, Grade: 2,0


Excerpt

Table of Contents

List of Abbreviations

List of Figures

1 Introduction/Problem Definition

2 Objectives

3 Methodology

4 Main Part
4.1 Why is the independency of oil so important?
4.2 Ecology: CO2 Regulations
4.3 How clean are battery electric vehicles (BEVs)?
4.4 Its all about the battery
4.5 Electromobility requires cooperation
4.6 Financial aspects
4.7 Political Support in Germany
4.8 What do customers expect?

5 Conclusion

6 ITM Checklist

7 Bibliography

List of Abbreviations

illustration not visible in this excerpt

List of Figures

Figure 1: OPEC share of world crude oil reserves 2009 (OPEC 2009)

Figure 2: Comparison of CO2 emissions caused by different means of transportation in Europe (Keilhacker 2009)

Figure 3: Energy densities compared (Fraunhofer IAO/PwC 2010)

Figure 4: Energy-mix in Germany. Source: German Renewable Energies Agency Information Platform (www.unendlich-viel-energie.de/en)

Figure 5: Development of worldwide energy demand and energy-mix (New York Times 2010, p. B3, NY edition)

Figure 6: Total Cost of Ownership. Present and future comparison of an ICE vehicle and an EV (Oliver Wyman 2010)

Figure 7: Countries with the world’s largest lithium deposits (Hamlin 2009)

Figure 8: Approx. cost of different powertrains today and in the future (Roland Berger 2010)

1 Introduction/Problem Definition

Believing politicians and representatives of all big automotive OEMs, the future of individual mobility will be electric. What a lot of people don’t know: first EVs were already developed in the late 19th century. These vehicles were equipped with rechargeable plumb accumulators (Pba) and reached cruising speeds up to 100 km/h. Between 1907 and 1941 the U.S. manufacturer “Detroit Electric” produced more than 12.000 electric cars and over 500 electric trucks. After almost one century of shadowy existence the topic of electromobility is more up to date than ever. While the traditional car markets like the U.S. and Europe seem to be saturated, there is a growing need for individual mobility in the emerging markets like China, India, Russia, Brazil, Korea and Indonesia. The World’s car market is predicted to grow up to 2 billion cars in 2050 which will, compared to today, roughly double the demand for energy. Fossil sources of energy are limited and become more and more expensive. Satisfying an increasing demand for energy is hardly possible without effects on our environment. Is the electrification of individual mobility an appropriate answer?

2 Objectives

The following text should give answers to a number of elementary questions relating to the short-term and mid-term future of electromobility.

1. What are the main causes for the extended discussion of electromobility?
2. Which economic, political, technical and financial factors have to be taken into account to make a good forecast?
3. Which players are involved and what does this mean for future cooperations?
4. What do customers want?
5. What is the most probable scenario for the development of individual electromobility in the following 20 years?

3 Methodology

The following text is based on several studies and publications mainly released by prestigious consulting companies, research institutions and universities. Since the topic is very newsworthy and knowledge in this area has a short half-life period, there only is a rare number of suitable scientific publications older than 2-3 years.

In order to reduce complexity some data will be limited to the German market.

4 Main Part

One fact influences the discussion of electromobility more than any other argument: the limitation of fossil fuel and the pursuit for economic and political independency of oil.

4.1 Why is the independency of oil so important?

A mere thirty years ago, 28% of the oil consumed in the U.S. was imported. Today nearly 60% of the oil utilized and consumed in the U.S. is imported from other countries (Quoteoil.com 2011). According to figures published by Bain & Company the U.S. invest more than 260 billion $ p.a. for oil imports (Bain & Company 2011). Recently president Obama postulated the clear goal to reduce U.S. oil import by one third to 7,3 million barrel. (Spiegel Online Wirtschaft 2011). Europe imports approximately 75% of the oil consumed. This value will increase to more than 85% in 2030. According to current estimates, more than three-quarters of the world's proven oil reserves are located in OPEC member countries (see Figure 1).

Strictly regulating the supply for the oil market the OPEC shows cartel-like characteristics. The current situation in Libya proves: most of the OPEC countries are highly economically and politically unstable. Oil price development can be regarded as tremendously volatile[1].

illustration not visible in this excerpt

Figure 1: OPEC share of world crude oil reserves 2009 (OPEC 2009).

For the emerging markets the dependence on oil is even more problematic than for western countries. According to the International Energy Association (IEA) emerging economies will account for 100% rise in global oil demand until 2030. 50% of this increase will be caused by China (Lepetun 2011, p.9).

4.2 Ecology: CO2 Regulations

Transport is responsible for approximately 20% of the emitted greenhouse gases.

illustration not visible in this excerpt

Figure 2: Comparison of CO2 emissions caused by different means of transportation in Europe (Keilhacker 2009).

Automotive OEMs expect strict CO2 regulations for all developed markets. Due to the EU Parliament the fleet emission has to be reduced to 130g CO2/km by 2012 respectively to 95g till 2020. Since ICE optimization potential is technically limited to another 30-40% and hydrogen technology and infrastructure is not technically mature, the only solution seems to be the EV. It is quite likely that ICEs are abandoned from urban areas in the foreseeable future. The discussion about critical values for respirable dust in the EC additionally enhances this discussion. A lifecycle perspective also taking production, transportation and recycling of vehicles into account gets more and more important. From a strategic management point of view all prominent car manufacturers decided to invest massive amounts of resources and capital into the development of EVs and the introduction of “greener” processes. A “green” image and the emphasis of sustainability as a central company value are inevitable to be prepared for future competition.

[...]


[1] Oil peak theory predicts skyrocketing prices after 50% depletion of world´s overall resources.

Excerpt out of 23 pages

Details

Title
Prospects of individual electromobility
College
University of applied sciences, Munich
Course
Economics
Grade
2,0
Author
Year
2011
Pages
23
Catalog Number
V271648
ISBN (eBook)
9783656633846
ISBN (Book)
9783656633839
File size
938 KB
Language
English
Tags
BEV;, PHEV;, Electromobility;
Quote paper
Holger Bodenmüller (Author), 2011, Prospects of individual electromobility, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/271648

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