In western postmodern political life polling is a pivotal instrument in the political arena. Polling is a vital instrument for analyzing name recognition of political auteurs, for preparing campaign strategies, for screening public opinion, for generating job approval ratings or simply forecast elections respectively waging potential election prospects for political combatants, who considering running for a higher public office.
Moreover polling results playing not only a decisive role in U.S. primaries, indeed they actually are finally the decision makers, which political candidate may enter a television debate (so in the GOP primary of 2012 ) to campaign for his or her political cause. Even in the aftermath of political election polling is used not only to judge the pollster, but to judge the political combats, who successful they played the political expectation game.
Indeed polls to forecast election differ in Germany and the United States. In that context can be mentioned aspects such as likely voters, Minority Turnout and other aspects that are not common vocabulary of German political pundits. Meanwhile in Germany public polls often can forecast elections prospects quite clear. A big contrast can be stated in the United States regarding the 2014 midterm election. Several polls show democrats leading the “generic ballot” for Congress, without indicating a sure democratic takeover of the house. An Article in the Washington post asked “How many votes do democrats need to retake the house?”
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. Operationalization questions or simply methodic
3. Factors that affect political polling
4. Sample & Turnout
5. Share of ethnic minorities on the electorate
6. Electoral system & Party System
7. Poll Closing Time
Objectives and Topics
The primary objective of this working paper is to analyze and compare the methodological differences in political polling between the United States and Germany, focusing on how these variations impact the reliability of predicting election outcomes and their subsequent influence on the respective political systems.
- Comparative analysis of polling methodologies in different electoral systems.
- The impact of voter turnout and demographic shifts on poll accuracy.
- Distinctions between "likely voters" and "all adults" in polling samples.
- The influence of time zones and poll closing times on voter behavior.
- Structural differences between the First-Past-The-Post and Proportional Representation systems.
Excerpt from the Book
4. Sample & Turnout
The sample for political polling is momentous affected due to the divergent turnout and the different voting system. In Germany and most part of West Europe every adult, with citizen right has the direct right to vote [excluding subjects with a huge criminal record or subjects in significant mental disorder]. It is widely known that in the United States US. Citizens first have to become a registered voter before being literally able to cast a vote. Furthermore turnout in US elections is generally spoken lower than in Germany (as it is often the case in first past the post voting systems).
Turnout calculating is vital to weight polls right. Complementarily the choosing of the right sample is a pivotal decision. US Polling firms often are working with a sample of likely voters instead of choosing a sample of registered voters. Likely voters are respondents on computer based telephone interviews, who not only are included in the voting list, but who also most likely show up in the polls [usually these criteria will be checked through indirect questions such as turnout record, interest in politics and in the specific race]. Particularly questions regarding estimated voters turnout are of quintessential importance to predict a right election outcome. Pollsters are doing well in reflection voting intention, indeed they are struggling to forecast the right voter turnout. In the United States different composition of the electorate in so called presidential years, midterm elections or off years election – are of at least pivotal importance for any polling model or weighting of polling data.
Summary of Chapters
1. Introduction: Discusses the role of polling in modern politics and highlights the fundamental differences in polling environments between the U.S. and Germany.
2. Operationalization questions or simply methodic: Defines the criteria for evaluating electoral poll reliability and sets the framework for the comparative analysis.
3. Factors that affect political polling: Provides a comparative overview of key variables such as sample types, turnout, and voting systems across both nations.
4. Sample & Turnout: Examines how different voter registration requirements and turnout rates complicate the creation of representative polling samples.
5. Share of ethnic minorities on the electorate: Analyzes the influence of demographic shifts and the non-white electorate on the accuracy of predictive polling.
6. Electoral system & Party System: Explores the structural divergence between the American First-Past-The-Post system and the German Proportional Representation system.
7. Poll Closing Time: Investigates the impact of varying poll closing times and election night news cycles on voter behavior and outcomes.
Keywords
Political Polling, United States, Germany, Electoral System, Voter Turnout, Demographic Shift, Likely Voters, Proportional Representation, First-Past-The-Post, Election Prediction, Public Opinion, Polling Reliability, Electorate Composition, Midterm Elections, Presidential Race.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the core focus of this research paper?
The paper examines the differences in political polling methods between the U.S. and Germany and how these differences affect the reliability of predicting election results.
What are the primary thematic fields covered?
The work covers electoral systems, voter turnout calculations, demographic influences, and the impact of polling infrastructure on public opinion and political outcomes.
What is the main research question?
The study asks how variations in political polling across countries impact the political system, the predictions made by pundits, and the overall reliability of forecasting electoral outcomes.
Which scientific method is utilized in this paper?
The author employs a comparative table analysis method, examining configurations and electoral conditions in both countries to identify differences in detail.
What topics are discussed in the main body?
The body chapters cover the operationalization of polling methods, the distinction between registered and likely voters, the impact of ethnic demographics, and the structural differences in voting systems.
Which keywords define this work?
Key terms include Political Polling, Voter Turnout, Electoral Systems, Demographic Shift, and polling reliability.
How does the U.S. voter registration system affect polling?
Because U.S. citizens must register to vote, pollsters struggle to define a sample of "likely voters" compared to the universal suffrage approach used in Germany.
Why does the poll closing time matter for election outcomes?
Poll closing times across different time zones can lead to early reporting of trends, which may influence undecided voters or affect voter mobilization on election night.
What is the "Obama coalition" mentioned in the text?
It refers to a demographic alliance of Afro-Americans, Latinos, young voters, single women, and intellectuals that played a significant role in U.S. presidential elections.
How does gerrymandering impact polling predictions?
Gerrymandering creates discrepancies between the national popular vote and the actual seat distribution in the House of Representatives, making it difficult for national exit polls to predict the final composition of the chamber.
- Arbeit zitieren
- Oliver Märtin (Autor:in), 2013, Political Polling in the United States and Germany. A Comparison, München, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/308288
