The Paris attacks in November 2015 have intensified the urgency of a resolution to the Syria conflict. The Syrian civil war that has been tearing apart the country for more than four years created the power vacuum which the Islamic State filled with its reign of terror. In a conflict as multi-layered as this war, there are, of course, many reasons of why peace negotiations have reaped so little success, but one of them has undeniably become the role of President Bashar al-Assad.
As many of the most recent peace negotiations show, the major obstacle to agreeing on an action plan for political transition in Syria has been the future of Assad in the country’s government. Assad’s role is very controversial as his regime is a close ally for some and the epitome of oppression for others. After briefly examining major stakeholder interests, this report aims to show that the controversy over Assad’s future has become the prime reason for failure of most recent peace negotiations for Syria.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. Major Stakeholders Outside Syria
2.1 Russia
2.2 Iran
2.3 Turkey
2.4 Saudi Arabia
2.5 USA
2.6 European Union
3. Failed Peace Negotiations
4. Conclusion
Research Objectives and Topics
This report examines the geopolitical interests of major international stakeholders in the Syrian Civil War and investigates why the future role of President Bashar al-Assad remains the primary obstacle to achieving a successful peace resolution.
- Analysis of external stakeholder interests (Russia, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, USA, EU).
- Evaluation of the political and military motivations influencing intervention.
- Assessment of why past diplomatic efforts, including the Geneva II and Vienna talks, have failed.
- Examination of the deadlock surrounding the political transition in Syria.
Excerpt from the Book
Major Stakeholders Outside Syria
The following list raises no claim to completeness as the web of interests surrounding Syria is large enough to go beyond the scope of this paper. The stakeholders were not selected by formal criteria but at the discretion of the author based on their perceived role in peace negotiations, military involvement and interest in Syrian politics.
Russia
For years, Syria has been one of Russia’s closest allies in the Middle East. The alliances stretches back to the time of the Soviet Union, when the Soviets provided military training and equipment for the Syrian army under Hafez Al-Assad, and Syria, in return, remained a reliable ally securing Soviet presence in the region with no threat of changing sides as Egypt did under Anwar Sadat (Trenin, 2012).
Besides securing Russia’s foothold in the Middle East and thus providing it with an indirect means of exerting power in the region, the cooperation has also been beneficial for Russia’s economy, which relies mostly on natural resources. Bashar Al-Assad is an important trade partner (Voswinkel, 2012) and this partnership has led to continuous sale of Russian arms and machinery in Syria that at least somewhat facilitates diversification of Russia’s economy (Saradzhyan, 2015).
Additionally, Syria is protecting Russia’s military interests in the Middle East with allowing it to maintain its naval base in Tartus (Kramer, 2012). Though it is neither large nor equipped for battle, it is Russia’s only military base outside the former Soviet Union (therefore the only one outside its primary sphere of influence) and could easily be built up to be a significant stumbling block for Western military intervention.
Summary of Chapters
Introduction: This chapter highlights the urgency of resolving the Syrian conflict and identifies the controversy over Bashar al-Assad's future as the primary barrier to peace.
Major Stakeholders Outside Syria: An overview of key international actors, detailing their specific strategic, religious, and economic interests in the Syrian conflict.
Failed Peace Negotiations: A critical review of international diplomatic efforts, such as the Geneva and Vienna talks, which have consistently faltered due to the impasse regarding Assad.
Conclusion: Synthesizes the findings, suggesting that while slight shifts in stakeholder rhetoric are appearing, a sustainable political solution remains elusive.
Keywords
Syrian Civil War, Bashar al-Assad, International Relations, Peace Negotiations, Russia, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, USA, European Union, Geopolitics, Political Transition, Geneva II, Vienna Talks, Middle East
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the core focus of this research?
The research explores the multi-layered interests of global powers in the Syrian Civil War and analyzes how these conflicting agendas have obstructed diplomatic efforts to end the conflict.
What are the primary thematic areas covered?
The paper covers the geopolitical motivations of Russia, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the USA, and the European Union, alongside an evaluation of failed international peace processes.
What is the main objective of this study?
The study aims to demonstrate that the political future of Bashar al-Assad is the central point of contention that has caused the failure of recent Syrian peace negotiations.
Which scientific method is employed?
The paper utilizes a qualitative analysis based on the examination of international stakeholder interests, diplomatic records, and political reports regarding the Syrian conflict.
What topics are discussed in the main body?
The main body details the specific motivations of major external stakeholders, such as Russia's naval interests and Iran's religious alliances, and follows with a historical critique of the Geneva and Vienna peace conferences.
Which keywords best characterize this work?
Key terms include the Syrian Civil War, Bashar al-Assad, geopolitics, international stakeholders, and diplomatic negotiations.
Why is Russia particularly invested in maintaining the Assad regime?
Russia values Syria as a long-term strategic ally, a buyer of Russian military hardware, and the location of its only naval base in the Mediterranean.
How does the role of the European Union differ from the other stakeholders?
The EU is primarily motivated by security concerns, the threat of further terrorist attacks, and the management of the refugee crisis, rather than direct military involvement.
What impact did the Paris attacks of 2015 have on the international view of the Syrian conflict?
The Paris attacks increased the perceived urgency of finding a resolution, as the Syrian vacuum was viewed as a breeding ground for global terrorism.
Is there any indication that stakeholders might change their position on Assad?
The conclusion notes that while some rhetoric, such as that from Iran and Russia, has become slightly more flexible, it remains uncertain whether these changes will actually lead to a viable compromise.
- Citar trabajo
- Katharina Eisen (Autor), 2015, Bashar Al-Assad. The Web of Interests Surrounding Syria’s Dictator, Múnich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/313376
