People's Perception on Climate Change Vulnerabilities of South-West Coastal Bangladesh

Contents

LIST OF FIGURES

ACCRONYMS

ABSTRACT

Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Statement of the Problem
1.2 Rationale of the Study:
1.3 Objective of the Study:
1.4 Literature Review:
1.5 Operational Definition of Concepts:
1.6 Conceptual Framework:
1.7 Importance of the Study
1.8. Limitations of the Study

Chapter Two: Methodology of the Study
2.1 Methodology of the Study:
2.2 Physical profile of the Study Area:
2.3 Map of the Study Area:

Chapter Three: Understanding Climate Change
3.1 Understanding the Climate Change

Chapter Four: Data Analysis
4.1: Socio-economic and Demographic Characteristics of the Respondents:
4.2: Perception Assessment Regarding Climate Change:
4.3: Vulnerability Assessment due to Climate Change:
4.4: Adaptation Strategies of the Respondents

Chapter Five: Major Findings, Recommendations and Conclusion
5.1 Major findings, Recommendations and Conclusion:
5.2 Recommendations
5.3 Concluding Remarks:

References

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1.1: Extent of Changes in Temperature, Precipitation and Evaporation

Table 1.2: Trend of tidal in three coastal stations

Table 4.1.1: Age Structure of the Respondents

Table 4.1.2: Sex Status of the Respondents

Table 4.1.3: Distribution of the Respondents’ Marital Status

Table 4.1.4: Distribution of the Respondent by Religion

Table 4.1.5: Distribution of the Respondent by Educational Level

Table 4.1.6: Occupational Pattern of the Respondents

Table 4.1.7: Monthly income of the family of the respondents

Table 4.1.8: Family Type of the Respondents

Table 4.1.9: Daily food item of the respondents

Table 4.1.9.1: Changes food item of the respondents

Table 4.1.10: Dynamics of the land use pattern of the

Table 4.1.10.1: Causes of Declining the Land Property

Table 4.1.11: Property handled by Respondents

Table 4.1.12: Housing conditions of the respondents

Table 4.1.13: Sources of drinking water of the respondents

Table 4.2.1: level of knowledge of respondents regarding Climate Change

Table 4.2.1.1: Sources of Getting Knowledge regarding Climate Change

Table 4.2.1.2: Relationship between ‘Sex status’ and ‘level of perception’

Table 4.2.1.3: Relationship between ‘Education and ‘level of perception’

Table 4.2.1.3: Relationship between ‘occupation and ‘level of perception’

Table 4.2.1.4: Relationship between ‘Occupation and ‘level of perception’

Table 4.2.2: Perception of Respondents regarding Causes of Climate Change

Table 4.2.3: Respondents Feel Victim of the Climate Change

Table 4.2.3: Causes of feel victim of the climate change

Table 4.2.3: Suffer Health Hazards of respondents

Table 4.2.4.1: Types of Health Hazards suffered by respondents

Table 4.3.1: Problem Ranking and Frequency of the Study areas

Table 4.3:2 Problem and its Effects of climate change on the study areas

Table 4.3.3: The Vulnerability contexts Versus Well- being ranking

Table 4.3.4: Crops present time and ten years ago

Table 4.4.1: Adaptation Strategies of the Respondentswith vulnerable climatic conditions

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1: Conceptual Framework

Figure 2.1: Flowchart of Methodology

Figure 2.2: Map of the Study Area

Figure 3.1: Climate Change Induced Impact and Vulnerabilities

Figure 3.2: Conceptual Model for the Adaptation with Climate Change

Figure 4.1.1: Distribution of the Respondent by Age Group

Figure 4.1.2 Distribution of the respondent by Sex Status

Figure 4.1.3 Distribution of the respondent by Sex

Figure 4.1.4: Occupation of the Respondent

Figure 4.1.5: Family income level of the Respondents

Figure 4.1.6: Dynamics of land use pattern of the respondents

Figure 4.1.7: Housing conditions of the respondents

Figure 4.1.8: Sources of drinking water of the respondents

Figure 4.2.1: Level of knowledge regarding Climate Change

Figure 4.2.2: Types of Health Hazards suffered by respondents

Figure 4.3.1(A) Effects of cyclone on the study areas

Figure 4.3.1(B) Effects of Salinity intrusion in the study areas

ACCRONYMS

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ABSTRACT

This study aims to measure the people’s perception regarding climate change vulnerabilities in south-west coastal Bangladesh. The broader objective of the study is to assess the climate induced vulnerabilities and to view their adaptive capacity with the climate change vulnerabilities. Both purposive and simple random samplings were used to conduct this study. Data were collected from 120 respondents through interview schedule technique. In the interview schedule technique, question was asked and filled by the interviewers in face-to-face situation.

Climate induced changes such as extreme cyclone, devastating tidal surges, severe floods, tremendous river erosion, excessive rainfall, overwhelming salinity intrusion etc, are occurring more frequently in greater intensities and in an unpredictable manner around the world including Bangladesh. To perceive the vulnerability, the southwestern coastal Bangladesh is selected as a research area where high vulnerability to natural climate is due to its low lying delta. The research mainly focuses on the perception level of the people on climate change vulnerability and its impact on their livelihood patterns. The research revealed that various climatic events adversely affect the people of the study area. Among all natural disasters like cyclone affects severely the livelihood pattern of the study area. Peoples of the affected area experienced thatdisproportionate rate of salinity intrusion into the land mass increased less fertility that causes failure of crop production. As a consequence, most of the low income families are now facing food insecurity and a huge amount of potable water crisis that makes the people more vulnerable along with a threat of different water borne diseases. Finally consideration of the mentioned vulnerable factors, a simplified adaptation strategy based on the respondent view is recommended.The findings of this study explicate that climate change resulted the vulnerability of the people in the coastal areas of Bangladesh.

Chapter One: Introduction

1.1: Statement of the Problem
1.2: Rationale of the Study
1.3: Objective of the Study
1.4: Literature Review
1.5: Operational Definitions
1.6: Conceptual Framework
1.7: Importance of the Study
1.8: Limitation of the Study

1.1 Statement of the Problem

Climate change isconsidered as one of the most serious threats to the world’s environment with its potential negative aspects on human health, food security, agriculture, fisheries, biodiversity, water, economic activities and other natural resources. The global warming is apprehended to lead a higher atmospheric temperature, high intensity of rainfall, increased natural disasters, more frequent and prolonged draughts and sea level rise along the coastal areas of low lying Bangladesh (NCSA, 2007).

Bangladesh is one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the world and will become even more so as a result of climate change. Floods, tropical cyclones, storm surges and droughts are likely to become more frequent and severe in the coming years. These changes will threaten the significant achievements. Bangladesh has made over the last 20 years in increasing incomes and reducing poverty, and will make it more difficult to achieve the MDGs.

The impacts of climate change are worldwide. For Bangladesh they are most critical as large part of the population is chronically exposed and vulnerable to a range of natural hazards. Already, the human suffering and cost to development is massive to this country and its people who are victims of human induced global warming.

Climatic hazards, including extremes like floods, cyclones, tornado, storm surge, tidal bore, water logging, saliently etc are not new to Bangladesh and the country has a scarred history claiming many lives and resulting in losses of assets. Bangladesh scientists believe that because of sea level rise coastal Bangladesh has already experienced the worst impacts especially in terms of coastal inundation and erosion, saline intrusion, deforestation, loss of bio-diversity and agriculture, and large scale migration (UNEP, 2008).

It is well recognized both in the scientific and negotiating community that Bangladesh would be one of the most adversely affected country to climate change. low economic strength, inadequate infrastructure, low level of social development, lack of institutional capacity, and a higher dependency on the natural resource base make the country more vulnerable to climate stimuli including both variability as well as extreme events and the country has a history of extreme climatic events claiming millions of lives and destroying past development gains, for example up to 500,000 people lose their lives and 5 million people are affected during the cyclone of 1970, the cyclone of 1991 kill the estimated people of 140000 and the official death of cyclone Sidr 3300 (CDPBD, 2008). Scientists and researchers are now claiming that this type of event is due to the global climate change.

People’s perception about mentioned types of loss and destruction are different among different groups in the society, in particular who are always suffering and facing these types of disasters. In reality, coastal peoples of Bangladesh are the real victim to the climate induced disasters. In this view, the perception about climate change vulnerability is very much desirable to understand by the people of Bangladesh who are really vulnerable due to climatic disruption.

1.2 Rationale of the Study:

The vulnerability of people in south-west coastal Bangladesh is discussed in terms of how they cope with continued deprivation and poverty during and in response to climatic disaster. Bangladesh, with a population nearing 130 million (BBS, 2008), is one of the poorest countries in the world while also being one of the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Bangladesh, as one of the most densely populated low lying developing countries is likely to be severely impacted by any such global climate change that might occur in future.

At the most basic level, Bangladesh is likely to be impacted by climate change by a number of factors including droughts, floods, cyclones and long term sea level rise. In the short term, this means that the peoples are likely to be hit by more and more natural disasters in future coming years. In the longer term, the peoples need to incorporate for accounting the climate change into the country’s development strategies and plans along with the incorporate the issue of adaptation to climate change with its development goals.

Various natural hazards like waster logging, salinity, river silting etc. became the principal environmental issues of the region. As a result huge damage has been caused to bio-diversity and people’s livelihoods. Furthermore, though the introduction of HYV of rice in the region saw high productivity in the first few years, it resulted in the near extinction of over a hundred indigenous varieties of rice. In addition, extensive shrimp cultivation resulting in increased soil salinity has caused massive damage to agriculture

For mitigating the future demand, research from different angles on climate change vulnerability is very much indispensable along with it should be given emphasize on awareness growing about the climate change impacts which makes their life vulnerable.

After conceptualize this truth, a special consideration has been paid to know the existing perception level about climate change in particular to the selected community and try to reach the goal by evaluating how much awareness and motivational works needs to the community’s people (Prodipan, 2007).

The Study provides an overview of the perception level about climate change vulnerability of the south west coastal people of particular villages, Podderganj, Chunkuri, Jaliakhali and Botbunia under Daccopupazilla of Khulna districts with an attempt to the assessment of their vulnerability. During the vulnerability assessment, the well-being indicators that were tried to identify different stakeholder groups, such as income, food, potable water, health and personal safety, housing and safety of property etc are being considered as important. The study also portrays the existing adaptation strategy taken by the coastal people of Bangladesh. Finally, would also an attempt to develop a conceptual model for developing a better adaptation strategy with the climate induced adversity over the study area, and if possible to Bangladesh.

1.3 Objective of the Study:

The main objective of the study is to assess the people’s perception on climate change vulnerability that affects the livelihood pattern of the study area. This objective is further subdivided into the following way:

- To explore the nature and extent of climate change.
- To evaluate the vulnerabilities of human populations due to results of climate induced changes associated with natural hazards.
- To assess the adaptation approaches practiced by the villagers to cope with the climate change vulnerabilities.
- To find out the possible causes of climate change.
- To identify those who are the worst victim of climate change.
- To explore the socio-economic outcome of climate change.
- To know the GO and NGO services in this areas.

1.4 Literature Review:

IPCC (2001) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva in a report entitled Climate Change around the World reveals, there will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world’s climate. However, there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring. The evidence comes from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and from phenomena such as increases in average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes to many physical and biological systems. It is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities (IPCC, 2001). This warming has already led to changes in the Earth's climate.

The existence of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is vital to life on Earth. In their absence, average temperatures would be about 30 centigrade degrees lower than they are today. But human activities are now causing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide, methane, tropospheric ozone, and nitrous oxide to rise well above pre-industrial levels. Carbon dioxide levels have increased from 280 ppm in 1750 to over 375 ppm today higher than any previous levels that can be reliably measured (i.e. in the last 420,000 years).The Earth’s surface warmed by approximately 0.6 centigrade degrees over the twentieth century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected that the average global surface temperatures will continue to increase to between 1.4 centigrade degrees and 5.8 centigrade degrees above 1990 levels, by 2100.

Climate Change Briefing from Rio to Kyoto Protocol, stress on importance of the atmospheric composition for the global heat balance was recognized already in the early 19th century. The possibility of human influence on climate was discussed around 1900, and the first indications that the globe was heating up concurrent with the emissions of carbon dioxide were found in the 1930s. At that time, the interest was negligible, since it was assumed that a possible global warming would probably be an advantage. Global concern over a series of catastrophes in the 1970s led to the establishment of the world climate program and eventually to a breakthrough in the scientific and political awareness of the scope of the problem climate with the conference “ The Green House Effect, Climatic Changes and Ecosystem” in Villach, Austria in 1985 (Bolin et al., 1986). In 1987, the so called Brundtland commission published its now classical report “Our Common Future” (Brundtland commission, 1987) and indicated the growing world population and the increasing poverty as some of the most pressing problems. However, whereas the technical development had previously been seen as a threat to the environmental and discussed in terms of “limits to growth”, the Brundtland Report argued that development is a prerequisite for the fight against poverty and environmental degradation but it must be sustainable in the sense that it “meets the needs of present generations without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”

Bangladesh Strategies Based on Bali Declaration ‘2007 and Upcoming Copenhagen Summit Preparation for 2009 At Bali, during 3-14 December 2007, delegations from all Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol will start engaging on how to respond to global warming and climate change for the decades ahead. Our hands hold our future. We must secure the well-being and development of Bangladesh by making the people and country resilient, through necessary resource and support, both internal and external.

Together, we must address this challenge and demonstrate our environmental integrity to the human race. Sufficient and collective actions to combat global warming and climate change must take now, without further delay. Millions are already suffering. The poor of this world are already victims and will suffer most from unavoidable global warming and adverse future impacts. To prevent dangerous climate change, we must all address the interlinked challenge of energy for their sustainable development without adding more greenhouse gas to the atmosphere.

International support for adaptation to climate change is paramount since links between development and adaptation has implications for official development assistance, in scale as well as focus. Adaptation to climate change will add a massive burden to Bangladesh’s budgets and development assistance. In this regard, commitments made already to double international aid flows by 2010 must be delivered. Climate Change Negotiations provide a unique platform for the global community to come together and work towards protecting the global commons and ensuring a common future. It should be re-emphasized that the UNFCCC process and funds are essential to support capacity building, identifying and addressing urgent and immediate priorities.

Key expectation from the global community is that equity is ensured, justice delivered, and commitments are adequate and in time while compensating climate victims, climate refugees, and helping those vulnerable to cope with climate challenges. Climate risk management and adaptation is a survival as well as development concern. The international community should ensure an equitable regime that proactively applies “precautionary” and “no regrets” principles while funding adaptation needs and priorities (Climate Change Cell, 2008).

DurgadasMukhopadhyay, in a study on , Cultural values, indigenous knowledge for climate change adaptations in developing countries reveals30% of animal and plant species will be vulnerable to extinction if global temperature rose by 1.5 to 2.5 degrees Celsius. It says the world’s have-nots would be worst hit by climate change, predicting greenhouse gases would change rainfall patterns, intensify tropical storms, accelerate the melting of Artic ice and mountain glaciers and amplify the risk of drought, flooding and water stress. As with disaster risk management, policies and measures concerned with climate change represent a risk management approach. Both disaster prevention measures and climate adaptation measures aim to address underlying vulnerabilities, which would otherwise put the natural and human systems at risk Indigenous knowledge is knowledge unique to a given culture or society, acquired through accumulation of years of experiences of local people passed on from generation to generation. Any adjustment (economic, ecological or social), whether passive, reactive or anticipatory is used as a means to ameliorate the anticipated adverse consequences associated with climate change. Indigenous knowledge is a precious national resource that can facilitate the process of disaster prevention, preparedness and response in cost-effective participatory and sustainable ways.

A recent study on climate change conducted by Dr. MahbubaNasreen in the article entitled ‘ Climate Change and Food Security’ (Nasreen, 2008), pointed out ‘Growing scarcities of water, land and fuel are likely to put increasing pressure on food prices, even without climate change. Additional pressures on these resources due to climate change, the introduction of mitigation practices that have the potential to create land use competition, and the attribution of market value to environmental services to mitigate climate change, also have the potential to cause significant changes in relative prices for different food items and an overall increase in the cost of an average food basket for the consumer’.

Achieving food security and reducing poverty in Bangladesh has been a major challenge for both governments and development agencies due to vulnerability of Bangladesh agriculture. Currently, much more people in the rural Bangladesh are considered food insecure due to recurrent different events like flood, storm, river bank erosion, salinity intrusion, and drought. This unfortunate situation is the result of many factors, some of which are:

* The poor nature of soils due to intensive cultivation and cropping (most soils are now low in organic matter content, low in carbon and poor in different micro-nutrients);

* The rapid population growth, which has led to continuous cropping, expansion of agriculture to marginal areas and overgrazing;

* The low use of technologies such as improved varieties, fertilizers, mechanization and irrigation that have stimulated agricultural development; and

* The absence of adequate technologies and policies that take into account the specific needs of the small-scale farmers.

This study can immensely make able to correlate the climate change and food security, but the geographical heterogeneities that the main victims of coastal regions are somehow excluded to discuss.

Another important study on the climate change in south-western coastal areas made by Asraful-ul-Alam Tutu (CDP, 2008) is ‘Issues of Climate Change in South west coastal region, ‘Climate change may undermine human security by reducing access to the quality of natural resources that are important to sustain livelihoods. Bangladesh is one of the most susceptible to the negative impact of climate change. The coastal region of country where mean elevations are within 1 to3 meter are identified as the most vulnerable part due to climate change. In Bangladesh, coastal areas encompasses majority of the heavy industries, sea port and the Sundarbans, the largest single block mangrove ecosystem in the world.

Climate change imposes serious concern about agriculture of Bangladesh. It has to be noted that this sector contributes 30% to the GDP and employs roughly 63% of the labour force. It is not just farmers whose livelihoods are at risk from climate change, but also those whose livelihoods depend on agricultural production such as supplies of inputs, people who works in transporting and processing agricultural commodities’.

The Committee on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights has given its interpretation of the right to adequate food. ‘The right to adequate food is realized when every man, women and child, alone or in community with others, have physical and economic access at all times to adequate food or means for its procurement’ (Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights 2002). The right to adequate food implies the availability of food in quantity and quality which is sufficient to satisfy the dietary needs of individuals. The food has to be free from adverse substances and acceptable within a given culture. Furthermore, the food has to be accessible in ways which are sustainable, which implies that the access and the availability needs to be given long term. Several components of this definition are of particular importance in properly understanding the content of the right to adequate food. Food must be physically available. Availability implies either a possibility to feed oneself from productive land or the existence of a well-functioning food distribution system that guarantees food is always there. Availability in a region or a village alone does not mean that a person or a household has access to the food. The food needs to be accessible both physically and economically. Sometimes minorities are hindered in getting access to food. Sometimes they do not have the economic means to buy food.

SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC) has studied surface climatological data on monthly and annual mean maximum and minimum temperature, and monthly and annual rainfall for the period of 1985-2007. The study showed increasing trend of mean maximum and minimum temperature in some seasons and decreasing trend in some other seasons. Overall trend of annual mean maximum temperature has shown significantly increasing trend over the period of 1985-2007.

The results revealed that the average increase in temperature would be 1.30C and 2.60C for the years 2030 and 2070, respectively. It was found that there would be a seasonal variation in changed temperature, 1.40C change in the winter and 0.70C in the monsoon months in 2030. For 2070, the variation would be 2.10C and 1.70C for winter and monsoon, respectively. For precipitation it was found that the winter precipitation would decrease at a negligible rate in 2030, while in 2075 there would not be any appreciable rainfall in winter.

Table 1.1: Extent of Changes in Temperature, Precipitation and Evaporation

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It was found that there would be excessive rainfall in the monsoon causing flooding and very little to no rainfall in the winter forcing drought. It was also found that there would be drastic changes in evaporation in both winter and monsoon seasons in the projection year 2075. It was inferred from the GCM output that moderate changes regarding climate parameters would take place for the projection year 2030, while for the projection year 2075 severe changes would occur.

The results also reveal that there is a general increasing trend regarding temperature. In 2030, the increase is much pronounced in winter months, although the maximum change is observed for post-winter months i.e., April, May and June.

Sea Level Rise

The SAARC Meteorological Research Council (SMRC) carried out a study on recent relative sea level rise in the Bangladesh coast (SMRC, 2003). The study has used 22 years historical tidal data of the three coastal stations. The study revealed that the rate of sea level rise during the last 22 years is many fold higher than the mean rate of global sea level rise over 100 years, which shown the important effect of the regional tectonic subsidence. Variation among the stations has also found. Table 2.4 represents the trend of tidal level in three costal stations.

Table 1.2: Trend of tidal in three coastal stations

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Source: SMRC

1.5 Operational Definition of Concepts:

People’s perception:

People’s perception denotes what people think and feel about anything. Their views and opinions regarding any occurrence.

Climate change:

The regional or global-scale changes in historical climate patterns arising from natural and man-made causes and resulting in both intermittent but increasingly frequent, extreme impacts and slow on-set, pervasive, cumulative effects; climate change involves the interactions of many systems, such as the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, and biosphere, as well as the human social systems.

Vulnerabilities:

Vulnerability is the conditions determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards.

Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to or unable to cope with, adverse effect to climate ability is a function of the character, magnitude and a rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

South-west coastal Bangladesh:

The South-east coastal region of Bangladesh is situated in the central portion of Ganges delta with the Sudnarban, the largest mangrove forest in the world, situated between the inhabited portion and the bay of Bangle. This region comprises the district of Jessore, Khulna, Satkhira, Bagerhat, Gopalgange and Narail in Bangladesh

1.6 Conceptual Framework:

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Figure 1.1 Conceptual Framework

1.7Importance of the Study

Bangladesh, with a population nearing 130 million, is one of the poorest countries in the world while also being one of the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Bangladesh, as one of the most densely populated low lying developing countries is likely to be severely impacted by any such global climate change that might occur in future. After conceptualize this truth the study has been selected to know the existing perception level about climate change in particular to the selected community and try to reach the goal by evaluating how much awareness and motivational works needs to the community’s people.

At the most basic level, Bangladesh is likely to be impacted by climate change by a number of factors including droughts, floods, cyclones and long term sea level rise. In the short term, this means that the peoples are likely to be hit by more and more natural disasters in future coming years. In the longer term, the peoples need to incorporate for accounting the climate change into the country’s development strategies and plans along with the incorporate the issue of adaptation to climate change with its development goals.

For mitigating the future demand, research from different angles on climate change vulnerability is very much indispensable along with it should be given emphasize on awareness growing about the climate change impacts which makes their life vulnerable.

1.8. Limitations of the Study

It is apprehended that, the collected data of the study area may not represent the overall situation of the area. There may be some shortcomings in the data collection procedure. It is suspected that, unconsciousness and lacks of knowledge of the inhabitants about climate change has not provided adequate information relevant to the purpose of the study. Around half of the people of the study area are female and they know a very little about climate change so some information could not be collected to fulfill the purpose of the study.

It most cases, the people of the villages had to be motivated first to make them answering the questions along with hampering them while asking each question with some probable alternative answers to get the real picture. There are some problem arising during the collecting information from different organization and conducting the research properly, which have been presented here:

- Some non-cooperation faced during the time of collecting data.
- During the survey most of the people in the study area think that it was a survey for giving them aid after the fatal cyclone “AILA” but when they know the real thing, they were uninterested to give the answer to the respective question.
- Lack of quantitative data from respective authority as a result there was some problem to make an assessment for producing the past impact features on climate change vulnerability of the study areas.
- Most of the people are illiterate. So the data may not be fully appropriate.
- Lack of time and fund.

Besides, while reviewing literature about the related aspect, inconsistent data often fumbled the researcher about the reliability of the same data.

Chapter Two: Methodology of the Study

2.1 Methodology of the Study
2.2 Physical profile of the Study Area
2.3 Map of the Study Areas

2.1 Methodology of the Study:

An appropriate and systematic methodology is always expected in every study. It will help to organize the scattered views, information and the steps required in goal reduction process. Proper working procedure helps to capture the right things at right periods and finally fulfill the objectives. It prevents the encroachment and haphazardness. This section presents the sequential order and description of the different steps followed in the study. It is very difficult to explore data from direct field survey.

2.1.1 Research Design: The study has been adopted by observational survey research design. Data have been collected from people living in coastal area in south-western part of Bangladesh and analyzed through statistical tools. To realize the other objectives of the study data about respective concepts have been collected through incorporating relevant items (variables) in the questionnaire and analyzed and interpreted using descriptive techniques.

2.1.2 Unit of analysis : Head of the household.

2.1.3 Study area: Four villages namely Chunkuri, Botbunia, Poddarganj and Jaliakhali in Dakopupazila under Khulna District.

2.1.4 Population: All people living in Chunkuri and Botbunia villages.

2.1.5 Sampling: Both Simple random and purposive sampling have been used for this study. Purposive sampling has been adopted to select the four villages and simple random sampling has been used to select the representative sample through using random number of all households

2.1.6 Sample Size:

120 persons were selected from four villages of the study area in order to do the interview.

2.1.7 Sources of data: Two sources of data have been used in this study, these sources are following-

a) Primary Source - Primary source includes the field where the incidence occurs. Through face-to-face interviews data will be collected. Here primary sources are those people who are the victim of climate change.

b) Secondary Sources - Secondary data is such a data, which is supplied by Non-Government Organizations, and other relevant organizations. Then it will collect some booklets, pamphlets and brochures from the below department such as-

- Demographic information was obtained from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics: Population census 2001; Community series, UpazillaDaccop,Khulna.
- Social information from ChalnaUpazillaParishad office, Daccop, khulna.
- Local NGO’s and other relevant organization
- BBS
- Regular web publicationFAO; NAPA, UNDP
- Relevant books of Climate Change, ecosystem management and others
- Books, Journals and daily newspapers etc.

2.1.8 Instrument of data collection: An interview schedule in English have been developed and finalized through pre-test and used for data collection.

2.1.9 Method of data collection: Data have been collected through interview schedule method, which have been asked and filled by the interviewers in face-to-face interview situation.

2.1.10 Pre-test: A pre-test of the questionnaire was done to understand if the questions are enough to fulfill the objectives. It also helped to finalize the probable options in the answers. After pre-testing, some new options were added to the code list and the questionnaire was finalized.

2.1.11 Data processing and analysis: Data have been analyzed and interpreted through different statistical techniques and computerized using software’s like SPSS, GIS, Excel etc.

2.1.12 Presentation of findings: Findings have been presented through written research report. A draft report have been prepared and given to the proper authority for comments and suggestion, and then finally submitted to the authority.

2.1.13 Flowchart of the Methodology

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Figure 2.1: Flowchart of Methodology

2.2 Physical profile of the Study Area:

Distinct selection of the study area is very imperative for any study. The eventual success of any kind of research study fully depends on the selection of study area. The main impacts of the climate change have been faced by the coastal zone due to its vulnerability over various coastal resources. The study area is located, village Chunkuri, Botbunia, Poddarganj and Jaliakhali in Dakopupazila under Khulna District.

As it is a coastal region, as well as impact zone of Sundarbans, climate induced natural disaster like cyclone, river erosion, saline water intrusion, flood, tidal surges and sea level rise and man made activities are prominent feature of the study area. Another way, human induced shrimp farming initiates salinity which seriously affects the agricultural production, and makes this region vulnerable to safe potable water.

Most of the population of the study area is living below the poverty line. Besides, proximity of the area made it easier to collect information from different sources that represent different degrees of physical and socio-economic changes initiate to select the area. Climate change vulnerability studies have used different climate change scenarios to assess impacts, adaptation and vulnerability for different sectors. This community has been selected due to its high vulnerability for the result of various climatic factors.

2.3 Map of the Study Area:

Figure 2.2: Map of the Study Area

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Fig 3.1: Study Area Map

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Source: Banglapedia (National Encyclopedia of Bangladesh)

Chapter Three: Understanding Climate Change

3.1: The Issues and Threat of Climate Change
3.2: Adaptation strategies in Institutional Level
3.3: Perspectives for Dealing the Issues and Threats of Climate Change

3.1 Understanding the Climate Change

The earth's climate is driven by a continuous flow of energy from the sun. This energy arrives mainly in the form of visible light. About 30% is immediately scattered back into space, but most of the 70% that is absorbed passes down through the atmosphere to warm the earth's surface. (Without this natural greenhouse effect the earth would be about 30 degrees Celsius cooler and would be unfit for us to live on!). The earth must send this energy back into space in the form of infrared radiation. Being much cooler than the sun, the earth does not emit energy as visible light. Instead, it emits infrared or thermal radiation.

"Greenhouse gases" in the atmosphere block infrared radiation from escaping directly from the surface to space. The main greenhouse gases are water vapor, carbon dioxide, ozone, methane, nitrous oxide, and the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).

Levels of all key greenhouse gases (with the possible exception of water vapor) are rising as a direct result of human activity. Emissions of carbon dioxide (mainly from burning coal, oil, and natural gas), methane and nitrous oxide (due to agriculture and changes in land use), ozone (generated by chemical reactions to the fumes in car exhausts) and CFCs (manufactured by industry) are changing how the atmosphere absorbs energy. This is all happening at an unprecedented speed. The result is known as the "enhanced greenhouse effect". The climate system must adjust to rising greenhouse gas levels to keep the global "energy budget" in balance.

In the long term, the earth must get rid of energy at the same rate at which it receives energy from the sun. Since a thicker blanket of greenhouse gases helps to reduce energy loss to space, the climate must change somehow to restore the balance between incoming and outgoing energy. This adjustment will include a "global warming" of the earth's surface and lower atmosphere. But this is only part of the story. Warming up is the simplest way for the climate to get rid of the extra energy. But even small rise in temperature will be accompanied by many other changes: in cloud cover and wind patterns, for example. Some of these changes may act to enhance the warming, others to counteract it.

3.1.1 The Issues and Threat of Climate Change

Human societies have long been subject to disruption by climate change. In the past, most of these variations have reflected natural phenomena, from fluctuations in levels of solar radiation to periodic eruptions of volcanoes. But in future most climate change is likely to result from human actions and in particular from the burning of fossil fuels and changes in global patterns of land use.

However, the effects of climate change will be not being uniform. The social consequences too will vary, depending, for example, on levels of development; in South Asia extra tropical storms could kill tens of thousands of people, while in the United States they might kill fewer people but lead to billions of dollars worth of damage. And even within the same society there will be differential social impacts; for young people greater heat stress may simply be a minor inconvenience, while for the elderly it can be fatal.

But across the world and in every country those most at risk will typically be the poorest, and in developing countries these will often be those who depend most for their survival on a healthy natural environment, such as ethnic tribes or nomadic groups, fishing communities, smallholders and livestock herders (UNFC,2006).

Climate Change is likely to have a significant impact on the global environment. In general, the faster the climate changes, the greater will be the risk of damage. Mean sea level is expected to rise 15-95 cm by the year 2100, causing flooding of low-lying areas and other damage. Climatic zones could shift towards the poles by 150-550 km in the mid-latitude regions. Forests, deserts, rangelands and other unmanaged ecosystems would face new climatic stresses. As a result, many will decline or fragment and individual species will become extinct.

Human society will face new risk and pressures. Food security is unlikely to be threatened at the global level, but some regions are likely to experience food shortages and hunger. Water resources will be affected as precipitation and evaporation patterns change around the world. Physical infrastructure will be damaged, particularly by sea-level rise and by extreme weather events. Economic activities, human settlements, and human health will experience many direct and indirect effects. The poor and disadvantaged are the most vulnerable to the negative consequences of climate change.

3.1.2 Perspectives for Dealing the Issues and Threats of Climate Change

Article II of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992), specifies the ultimate goal of international climate policy as follows:

“The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” (UNFCCC, 1992)

Since the Third Assessment Reportof the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, considerable attention has been devoted to identifying what magnitude of climate change comprises “dangerous anthropogenic interference” and, subsequently, assessing the risk of exceeding this temperature threshold under different scenarios of future growth in greenhouse gas emissions and/or efforts to reduce or mitigate those emissions.

Conducting such a risk assessment involves integrating estimates of the threshold for ‘dangerous’ climate change with the likelihood of different increases in future global temperatures. Various international estimates of the global threshold for ‘dangerous’ climate change were reviewed by Preston and Jones (2006). The international community appears to have arrived at a consensus estimate of approximately 1.5°C above 1990 temperatures or approximately 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures. This represents a threshold beyond which there is a significant risk of damage or loss to unique or threatened systems (such as coral reefs), local to global economies, or large-scale and potentially irreversible changes in the climate system.

3.1.3 Needs for People’s Perception on Climate Change Vulnerability in Coastal Bangladesh

The Geographical situation, land characteristics, multiplicity of rivers and the monsoon climate render Bangladesh highly vulnerable to natural disasters. The Southwestern region is affected by floods, tropical cyclones, riverbank erosion, siltation, salinity intrusion, and tidal surges.In recent years this area has also faced occasional tornadoes, drought and heavy rainfall.Bangladesh, on behalf of its vulnerable people, and also as a voice for the vulnerable communities and countries all over the world establishes the case for global consensus and urgent action to address climate change.Bangladesh needs to act urgently to address climate change. It is necessary now to provide guidance to policy makers and development practitioners to utilize opportunities emerging from negotiated outcomes. For example, opportunities are emerging in capacity building, technology transfer, education and public awareness, adaptation fund, etc. A systematic and holistic approach to this is to establish and operationalize a country framework to mainstream climate risk management and adaptation in the development planning and management policies, institutions and processes.People in South-West region are highly dependent on the natural resource base in the sustaining their livelihoods. Various unwanted climatic behaviors make all of the natural resource vulnerable and thus needs for the perception about climate change vulnerability is indispensable for the coastal people of Bangladesh.

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Figure: 3.1.1: Climate Change Induced Impact and Vulnerabilities (Prodipan, 2006).

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