After the end of nearly three decades of civil war in 2009, Sri Lanka is experiencing a tourism boom with a record level of international tourist arrivals. The Sri Lankan government has now identified tourism as a main component in its post-war development strategy. Despite this new policy enthusiasm there is dearth of research on tourism in Sri Lanka.
The purpose of this study, therefore, is to contribute to the literature on tourism in Sri Lanka in a number of ways. First, it provides a systematic historical narrative on Sri Lankan tourism and explains how Sri Lanka missed opportunities in the past. Second, it develops a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model focusing on tourism and constructs a database with an emphasis on tourism. Third, it examines the economy-wide effects of the post-war tourism boom in Sri Lanka.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
1.1 Introduction
1.2. Motivation and Significance of Research Area
1.3 Identification of Research Problem
1.4 Research Questions
1.5 Research Objectives and Contributions
1.6. An Overview of Research Methodology
1.7 The Structure of the Paper
2. Tourism in Sri Lanka: A Historical Narrative
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Location and Tourism Attractions
2.3 Tourism Development in Sri Lanka
2.3.1 The Ten Year National Plan and the First Tourism Boom in Sri Lanka
2.3.2 Fluctuation of Tourism during the Civil War Period
2.3.3 Comparison between Sri Lankan Tourism and its Asian Competitors
2.3.4 Post-war Tourism Boom and Optimism
3. Literature Review on Tourism Modelling
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Theoretical Framework of Economic Contribution of Tourism
3.3 Economic impact analysis modelling on tourism
3.3.1 Multiplier Methods in Estimating Economic Impact of Tourism
3.3.2 Input – Output Models of Tourism
3.3.3 Computable General Equilibrium Models on Tourism
3.4 Empirical Studies Using Tourism Focused CGE Models
3.4.1 CGE-Tourism Studies at National and Regional Levels
3.4.2 Special Shocks and Event Effects of Tourism
3.4.3 Environment and Poverty Analysis
3.5 Tourism Satellite Accounts (TSA)
4. Research Design
4.1 Conceptual Framework of Economic Impact Analysis of Tourism
4.2 Development of SLCGE-Tourism
4.3 Tourism Data Structure of the CGE models
Research Objectives and Focus
This study explores the historical performance of the tourism sector in Sri Lanka from a political economy perspective and examines the expected economy-wide impact of tourism in the context of post-war development. Its primary goal is to address the research vacuum regarding empirical evidence on the economy-wide effects of tourism fluctuations, specifically by developing a tourism-focused Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model tailored to the Sri Lankan economy.
- Systematic historical analysis of Sri Lankan tourism policies and performance since independence.
- Identification of the nexus between political instability, civil war, and tourism growth.
- Construction of an integrated tourism database for the Sri Lankan economy.
- Development of a specialized tourism-focused CGE model (SLCGE-Tourism).
- Quantification of the economy-wide impacts of the post-war tourism boom.
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2.3.2 Fluctuation of Tourism during the Civil War Period
The first tourism boom ended with the eruption of ethnic riots in July 1983 and the escalation of the separatist war in the North and East. Within the next twenty seven year period Sri Lanka missed many opportunities to attract tourists and foreign direct investment (FDI) to the sector because of the separatist war and violence in the South. It is clear from Figure 1 that the year 1983 was a turning point in terms of missed opportunities. All expectations of reaping the benefits of liberalisation in 1977 and Sri Lanka’s dream of becoming another Singapore faded away.
As O’Hare and Barrette (1994) have pointed out, the tourism sector has been sensitive to civil disturbances and the number of tourist arrivals has fluctuated as reactions to civil disturbance and violence as well as to different episodes of peace talks (see Table 2 and Figure 2). During the first episode of war (1983-1987), the number of tourist arrivals declined at an annual rate of 15 per cent. Although the peace process started between the Sri Lanka Government and the LTTE in 1987 with the intervention of Indian government, the tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka were stagnating and low (see Table 2) as a result of ‘twin war’ the fighting between the LTTE and the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) and also the second youth uprising in the South immediately after signing a peace accord between Sri Lanka and India in 1987 (Bandara, 1997b).
However, the elimination of the second youth uprising in the South in 1989 and the beginning of another round of peace talks between the Sri Lankan government and the LTTE led a temporary rebound in tourism sector in 1990. This rebound was also supported by the second wave of economic reforms including further liberalisation of the trade regime (Kelagama & Danham, 1995).
Summary of Chapters
1. Introduction: Provides the background and objectives of the thesis, highlighting the importance of tourism for Sri Lanka’s post-war economic recovery.
2. Tourism in Sri Lanka: A Historical Narrative: Reviews the evolution of Sri Lankan tourism from independence through the civil war period, detailing the missed opportunities and the post-war recovery.
3. Literature Review on Tourism Modelling: Surveys various economic techniques, including multiplier analysis, Input-Output models, and CGE models, to identify appropriate methodologies for assessing tourism's economic contribution.
4. Research Design: Outlines the conceptual framework and the development process of the SLCGE-Tourism model, including the structural challenges of incorporating tourism into CGE frameworks.
Keywords
Tourism, Sri Lanka, CGE Modelling, Economic Impact, Post-war Development, Tourism Satellite Accounts, Input-Output Analysis, Tourism-led Growth, Policy Analysis, Civil War, Macroeconomic Variables, Tourism Arrivals, Foreign Exchange Earnings, Employment Generation, SLCGE-Tourism.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the core focus of this thesis?
The thesis assesses the impact of tourism on the Sri Lankan economy, specifically focusing on the post-war recovery and the historical evolution of tourism policies.
What are the central thematic fields?
The key themes include the political economy of tourism, historical analysis of development strategies, and quantitative modeling of tourism's economic impacts.
What is the primary research objective?
The objective is to fill the research gap regarding the economy-wide effects of tourism in Sri Lanka by developing a specialized tourism-focused CGE model.
Which methodology is employed for the quantitative assessment?
The study utilizes a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) approach, specifically creating the SLCGE-Tourism model, as it overcomes the limitations of traditional multiplier and Input-Output models.
What does the main body of the work cover?
It provides a historical narrative of the tourism industry, a comprehensive literature review on tourism modeling techniques, and details the specific design and data structure used for the SLCGE-Tourism model.
What defines the research as unique?
It is the first study to construct a tourism-focused CGE model and database explicitly for the Sri Lankan economy, facilitating better policy analysis.
How did the civil war affect tourism in Sri Lanka?
The civil war caused significant fluctuations in tourist arrivals and created a "lost" period where Sri Lanka lagged behind regional competitors like Vietnam and Cambodia.
What is the role of Tourism Satellite Accounts (TSA) in this research?
TSAs act as a crucial framework for integrating tourism data into national accounts, which the author utilizes to help bridge the data gap for the CGE model.
What is the "crowding out" effect mentioned in the context of tourism?
It refers to the phenomenon where an expanding tourism sector may draw resources away from other export or import-competing sectors, potentially causing negative externalities in those areas.
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- Dr. Sriyantha Fernando (Autor:in), 2012, An Assessment of the Impacts of Tourism in Sri Lanka, München, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/373928
