A secure, affordable and reliable energy supply remains to be highly significant to economic stability, as well as development in the world. Notably, the challenges posed by climate change and the elevating energy demands alongside the erosion of energy security of the developing societies have amounted to high challenges for energy policy makers. It is evident that the current global energy system sits at the nexus of different dilemmas, which include the development dilemma that refers to prosperity versus poverty, the industrialization dilemma of growth versus the environment and the trust dilemma referring to globalization versus security.
Therefore, this paper describes the long-term forecast of energy supply and demand in the world, the future of the primary energy supply such as oil, gas, coal, nuclear and sustainable energy, alongside outlining the future of energy demands in the BRICs and OECD countries.
Over the years, strains have always been evident in the global energy system, but nowadays, it has been noted that these tensions are becoming more severe. The modern energy system has several lethargies due to its complexity along with scale. Therefore, it is evident that the extensive timescales that are required for planning as well as constructing new energy infrastructure imply that the tensions within this system may not be resolved quickly or easily.
In this sense, major changes in the global energy system are expected to be apparent after a significant number of years. Experts have described different scenarios to identify such changes, considering the plausible relationships between distinct possibilities and perspectives. Remarkably, these scenarios have helped in the preparation, shaping and thriving in a reality that is expected to unfold eventually. For example, the use of scramble and blueprint scenarios can be a major step in the development of the global energy system in fifty years to come, although they are both challenging outlooks.
Inhaltsverzeichnis (Table of Contents)
- Introduction
- The Long-Term Forecast of Energy Supply And Demand in the World
- The Future of Primary Energy Supply
- Natural Gas
- Coal
- Nuclear Power
- Sustainable Resources
- The Future of Energy Demand in BRICS and OECD Countries
- Conclusion
Zielsetzung und Themenschwerpunkte (Objectives and Key Themes)
This paper aims to provide a long-term forecast of energy supply and demand in the world, considering the challenges of climate change and rising energy demands. It examines the future of primary energy sources, such as natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and sustainable energy, and analyzes energy demand trends in BRICS and OECD countries.
- Long-term energy supply and demand forecasting
- Climate change mitigation and energy security
- The future of primary energy sources
- Energy demand trends in BRICS and OECD countries
- Scenario planning for energy system development
Zusammenfassung der Kapitel (Chapter Summaries)
The introduction highlights the critical role of a secure, affordable, and reliable energy supply for economic stability and development. It emphasizes the challenges of climate change, increasing energy demand, and energy security in developing societies, leading to dilemmas in energy policy-making.
The section on "The Long-Term Forecast of Energy Supply And Demand in the World" emphasizes the need for a long-term perspective in energy policy analysis to address the challenges of climate change and energy infrastructure development. It explores the concept of scenario planning as a tool for addressing uncertainty in forecasting and highlights the importance of considering factors like social structures, technological advancements, and environmental values in shaping energy strategies.
The chapter on "The Future of Primary Energy Supply" begins with an analysis of natural gas, highlighting its potential to meet increasing energy demand while emitting lower carbon dioxide compared to coal. The text also discusses the future of coal, nuclear power, and sustainable energy sources, exploring factors such as resource availability, technological advancements, and economic competitiveness.
Schlüsselwörter (Keywords)
This paper focuses on the long-term outlook for energy supply and demand, examining the future of primary energy sources, energy security, climate change mitigation, scenario planning, and energy demand trends in BRICS and OECD countries.
- Quote paper
- Caroline Mutuku (Author), 2018, Venturing a Long-Term Forecast of Energy Supply and Demand around the World in 2050, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/429858
