Venturing a Long-Term Forecast of Energy Supply and Demand around the World in 2050

Resumen o Introducción

A secure, affordable and reliable energy supply remains to be highly significant to economic stability, as well as development in the world. Notably, the challenges posed by climate change and the elevating energy demands alongside the erosion of energy security of the developing societies have amounted to high challenges for energy policy makers. It is evident that the current global energy system sits at the nexus of different dilemmas, which include the development dilemma that refers to prosperity versus poverty, the industrialization dilemma of growth versus the environment and the trust dilemma referring to globalization versus security.

Therefore, this paper describes the long-term forecast of energy supply and demand in the world, the future of the primary energy supply such as oil, gas, coal, nuclear and sustainable energy, alongside outlining the future of energy demands in the BRICs and OECD countries.

Over the years, strains have always been evident in the global energy system, but nowadays, it has been noted that these tensions are becoming more severe. The modern energy system has several lethargies due to its complexity along with scale. Therefore, it is evident that the extensive timescales that are required for planning as well as constructing new energy infrastructure imply that the tensions within this system may not be resolved quickly or easily.

In this sense, major changes in the global energy system are expected to be apparent after a significant number of years. Experts have described different scenarios to identify such changes, considering the plausible relationships between distinct possibilities and perspectives. Remarkably, these scenarios have helped in the preparation, shaping and thriving in a reality that is expected to unfold eventually. For example, the use of scramble and blueprint scenarios can be a major step in the development of the global energy system in fifty years to come, although they are both challenging outlooks.