A violent crimes determination model applied over the most violent cities of the world

Résumé ou Introduction

Based on the current literature this work introduces a new approach of criminal behavior. The model that will be presented regards the effects of the expected punishment as the main condition that drives the criminal behavior unto an optimal choice. Indeed, the criminal conduct must be induced primarily by two factors: The impunity feeling and the opportunities. This work aims to analyze whether the same relationship preached by the Broken Window Theory could be verified in a wider scenario with the interaction not only between minor serious crimes but also among several kind of different crimes and offenses.

The determination of violent crimes, those related to the citizens' life, is viewed in this thesis as a function of the property crime, those related to the public and private property, and the policing enforcement. A mathematical model is also proposed as a framework that is able to explain this reality. Using a monthly crimes dataset provided by the Department of Public Safety of 10 jurisdiction around the world, it is developed a multiple regression analysis for the years of 2011-2014 in the city of São Paulo and it is estimated Spearman rank correlation and price elasticities for the crimes of nine from the 20 most violent cities of the world in order to validate the theatrical mathematical model proposed.

I argue that the highest homicide rates in nine of 2013 ten most violent cities of the world are strongly correlated to the high levels of impunity in suppressing crimes against property in the short term. The conclusion states, as in the Broken Windows Theory, that once the offenses are committed in the majority by the same people, when the feeling of impunity arose due a low policing enforcement over the property crimes, these property crimes begins to decrease, giving rise to violent crimes that is supposed to have higher payoffs, a relationship which may provide a good prediction for the violent crimes in a later period.