Japan's (UN)certain future? Permanent membership on the United Nations Security Council - A Delphi Study

Diploma Thesis , 2004 , 148 Pages , Grade: Distinction

Politics - Topic: International Organisations

1. Introduction


“We, the Japanese people, […] desire to occupy an honored place in an international society striving for the preservation of peace, and the banishment of tyranny and slavery, oppression and intolerance for all time from the earth. […] We […] pledge our national honor to accomplish these high ideals and purposes with all our resources.”
(cit. in Hook et al. 2001:466)

This excerpt from the Preamble to Japan’s Constitution that came into effect from 3. May 1947 clearly reflects Japan’s desire to regain a respectable position within the international arena. Defeated in battle and under allied occupation, it seemed as if Japan “would never again be able to play a major role on the world stage” (Linhart 1996:404). More than half a century later, circumstances have changed dramatically: not only has Japan recovered from its wartime devastation, it has also become a major economic power and risen to the status of key international player. Has Japan, in that sense, attained its goal and acquired an “honored place” in international society, as is stated in the Preamble to its Constitution?
There are several means by which to assess Japan’s place on an international stage. With regard to the above question, however, the United Nations Security Council lends itself to being a foremost measure. This can be ascribed to three rationales: firstly, the Security Council can be argued as epitomising what might indeed be called an “honored place” in international society. Not only is a permanent Security Council seat highly elitist, it is also a “scarce international resource” (Hurd, cit. in Drifte 2000:95) that enhances a country’s prestige and confers it immense status. Secondly, the Security Council is endowed with the “primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security” (UN Charter, Art. 24); a function, that reveals remarkable parallels with the introductory quote which refers to an “international society striving for the preservation of peace”. Thirdly, it is overtly known, at least since the early 1990s, that Japan is pursuing permanent membership and that it has certainly tried to accomplish this “high ideal”, if not openly (“with all its resources”), then at least indirectly, from as early as the late 1960s onwards. (Drifte 2000:50)

Inhaltsverzeichnis (Table of Contents)

• INTRODUCTION
• THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE: GENERAL REMARKS ON METHODOLOGY
  • Origin and Fields of Application
  • Definition and Classification - an Attempt
  • Potential and Limits
• CONTEXTUAL EMBEDDING OF JAPAN'S CANDIDATURE
  • Security Council Reform - a Precondition
    • The Security Council: Composition, Functions and Powers
    • Why Reform?
    • Security Council Reform Discussions: Development and Content
  • Japan's Quest for Permanent Security Council Membership
    • Credentials and Motives
    • Japan's Pursuit of its Quest
    • National and International Support
    • Japan's UN policy
• JAPAN A PERMANENT MEMBER ON THE SECURITY COUNCIL? RESULTS OF A DELPHI STUDY
  • The Delphi Technique in the Context of the Present Study
    • Aims
    • Type
    • Resources
  • Participants
    • Structure of the Panel of Experts
    • Scope of the Panel of Experts
    • Recruitment of the Experts
    • The Final Panel
  • Questionnaire
    • Structure and Scope
    • Type of Questions
    • Technical Implementation
    • The Final Questionnaire
  • Implementation and Evaluation of the Study
    • First and Second Wave of Inquiry
    • The Feedback
    • The Dropout Rate
    • Changes in Expert Opinion between the First and the Second Wave
  • Results
    • Japan's Prospect of Becoming a Permanent Security Council Member
    • Japan's Continuing Pursuit of its Quest
    • Development of National and International Support
    • Japan's Future UN Policy

Zielsetzung und Themenschwerpunkte (Objectives and Key Themes)

This study aims to analyze Japan's potential candidacy for permanent membership on the UN Security Council using the Delphi technique. It examines the historical context, analyzes the current situation, and explores potential future scenarios.

• Security Council reform and its impact on Japan's candidacy
• Japan's credentials and motives for pursuing permanent membership
• National and international support for Japan's bid
• The potential consequences of Japan becoming a permanent member
• The potential consequences of Japan not becoming a permanent member

Zusammenfassung der Kapitel (Chapter Summaries)

The introduction sets the stage for the study, outlining Japan's aspiration for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Chapter 2 dives into the Delphi technique, its origins, application, potential, and limitations. Chapter 3 provides contextual background, exploring Security Council reform and Japan's historical quest for permanent membership, including its motivations, achievements, and challenges.

Schlüsselwörter (Keywords)

This study focuses on Japan, the UN Security Council, permanent membership, Security Council reform, the Delphi technique, national and international support, and future scenarios.

• College: University of Vienna
• Grade: Distinction
• Author: Mag. MSc Sigrid Willibald (Author)
• Publication Year: 2004
• Pages: 148
• Catalog Number: V58816
• ISBN (eBook): 9783638529112
• ISBN (Book): 9783638708944
• Language: English
• Tags: Japan, Permanent, United, Nations, Security, Council, Delphi, Study