“The fuel cell is a higher civilisation performance than the steam engine and will soon banish the Siemens generator into the museum.” predicted Wilhelm Ostwald, Nobel price winner for chemistry at the second meeting of the German Electro-technical Society in 1884 in Leipzig. But during more then hundred years passed by in the meantime, the discovery did not turn out to be the ‘engine of the future’. This fact raises at least two separate questions in mind. Firstly, why fuel cells did not enter yet the market, and secondly, when do they really supposed to do so? In other terms, when does this hundred years old invention finally become an innovation?
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. Methodology
3. The fuel cell technology and its applications
4. Motivations of radical change
4.1 The potentials of the fuel cell technology, technical push and market pull
5. The innovation process
5.1 The stage of the innovation process
5.2 Remaining challenges in the technological development
5.3 The case of the fuel and its environmental and technical impacts
5.4 Progress made by the automotive business
6. Conclusion
7. References
Objectives & Core Topics
This paper aims to investigate why fuel cell technology has not yet entered the automotive market despite its long history and to assess the current stage of innovation to determine when commercialization might be achieved. The analysis focuses on industrial-level developments and the strategic challenges faced by automakers.
- The historical context and the persistent incubation period of fuel cell technology.
- Application of the cyclical model of technological change to the automotive industry.
- Technical hurdles such as stack costs, power density, and fuel storage.
- The environmental and economic implications of hydrogen production and infrastructure.
- Current collaborations and market readiness within the automotive business.
Excerpt from the Book
4. Motivations of radical change
Fuel cell technology would without doubt cause a disruptive change in the automotive industry. Today the dominant design for cars is still the internal combustion engine. But according common understanding, this technology, which is over a century and a half old, is reaching its limits of improvement by incremental change. In addition, the declining number of producing firms in the automotive industry indicates also a mature core technology. In other words, the technology has arrived at the top of its S-curve, further engineering efforts do not cause significant improvement in performance. The theory of the dominant design predicts that it is time for the next generation of technology, for a so called ‘variation’. Operate fuel cell technology in cars should be considered as a possibility of a disruptive change not least due to its potentials.
Those potentials of the fuel cell technology as outlined below are enormous and can explain very well why automakers invest right today in this technology.
However, just concerning their property, disruptive technologies are not very welcome by businesses using a well-established technology. As Adamson et al. mention, those technologies “require radical, discontinuous change from current technologies and, as such, are less likely to be pursued by companies which are market leaders in the current technology.” One can say that this counts in particular for the automotive business that – with regard to its propulsion system – may use one of “the most entrenched technologies in existence tooled and retooled, […] manufactured in enormous quantities, and supported by a ubiquitous refuelling and repair infrastructure”. What is more, the automakers are typical ‘scale-intensive’ firms, which develop their products traditionally on a basis of incremental innovations and where “given the potential economic advantages of increased scale, combined with the complexity of products [and] productions systems, the risks of failure associated with radical (…) change are potentially very costly”.
Summary of Chapters
1. Introduction: Presents the historical context of the fuel cell and defines the paper's scope, which focuses on the transition from internal combustion engines to fuel cells within the automotive industry.
2. Methodology: Outlines the theoretical framework used for the analysis, specifically the cyclical model of technological change and the theory of the dominant design.
3. The fuel cell technology and its applications: Explains the basic electrochemical working principle of fuel cells and their various potential applications, including portable electronics and vehicles.
4. Motivations of radical change: Discusses why the automotive industry is seeking alternatives to mature internal combustion engines and identifies the drivers behind investing in disruptive technologies.
4.1 The potentials of the fuel cell technology, technical push and market pull: Details the technical advantages of fuel cells, such as high efficiency and zero emissions, while highlighting the 'push' and 'pull' factors driving their development.
5. The innovation process: Establishes a model to track the innovation lifecycle, from invention to commercial market entry, adapted for the automotive sector.
5.1 The stage of the innovation process: Maps current industry efforts against Betz's concept of radical innovation, highlighting that the technology is currently in the engineering prototype phase.
5.2 Remaining challenges in the technological development: Analyzes specific technical barriers, including high component costs, durability issues, and the need for improved power density.
5.3 The case of the fuel and its environmental and technical impacts: Examines the complex challenges of hydrogen production, distribution, and storage, and how these factors influence vehicle design.
5.4 Progress made by the automotive business: Discusses industry trends, such as alliances and collaborations, and how automakers are navigating the path toward commercialization.
6. Conclusion: Summarizes the key findings, suggesting that while significant hurdles remain, commercial viability could be achievable around 2010 if infrastructure and governmental support align.
7. References: Provides the bibliographic list of academic, industry, and technical sources consulted.
Keywords
Fuel cell, internal combustion engine, automotive industry, technological change, dominant design, innovation process, hydrogen, commercialization, technical discontinuity, sustainable development, industrial R&D, powertrain, emissions, infrastructure, market pull.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary subject of this research paper?
The paper examines the potential for fuel cell technology to replace the internal combustion engine in the automotive industry and explores the reasons behind the delayed market entry of fuel cell vehicles.
What are the central thematic areas discussed?
Key areas include the theory of technological change, technical performance challenges of fuel cells, the logistics of hydrogen fuel infrastructure, and the strategic innovation management practices of major automakers.
What is the central research question?
The core inquiry is: "When does the fuel cell come?" and specifically, why it has taken over a century for this invention to move toward practical innovation in the automotive sector.
Which scientific model serves as the framework for the analysis?
The author applies the cyclical model of technological change and the theory of the dominant design to analyze how industries transition from existing, mature technologies to new, disruptive ones.
What topics are covered in the main body of the work?
The main body covers the basic working principles of fuel cells, the motivation for disruptive change, an assessment of the innovation stage (from discovery to engineering prototypes), and the remaining technological and fuel-related challenges.
Which keywords best characterize this research?
Key terms include Fuel cell, automotive industry, technological change, dominant design, hydrogen, commercialization, and innovation process.
Why is the "internal combustion engine" considered a mature technology in this context?
It is viewed as mature because it is over a century old, production numbers are declining, and further engineering efforts provide only incremental improvements rather than significant performance breakthroughs.
What is the main challenge regarding hydrogen as a fuel?
The primary challenge is that hydrogen is not a primary energy source but a carrier; extracting, storing, and distributing it efficiently—without negating its environmental benefits—remains a major hurdle for widespread adoption.
- Citation du texte
- Dipl.-Volkswirt (BA) Oliver Heiden (Auteur), 2005, When does the fuel cell come?, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/62930
