Rapid changes in technology and growing competition in consumer as well as business customer markets are forcing industry to explore new ways to foster product and service innovations. Especially multinational companies need to identify developments and trends in their technical, political, competitive, and consumer environment early in order to be capable of acting. Strategic Foresight is a framework, which allows the identification of weak signals of changes and reacting to these.
This thesis identifies and analyzes the existing literature concerning Strategic Foresight by means of bibliometric analysis and literature review.
For the bibliometric analysis the Science Citation Index and additional databases of journal publishers have been selected. These databases have been searched for journal articles and conference articles related to Strategic Foresight. The identified journal articles have been categorized concerning research field, research perspective, and discussed subjects. Journal articles have been analyzed for the most active authors and for journals with the highest number of articles related to Strategic Foresight. Conference articles have been analyzed concerning conferences dealing the most with Strategic Foresight.
In result, a growing scientific activity in the field of Strategic Foresight is shown. Seven highly relevant conferences, 15 highly relevant journals, and 12 major authors in the field of Strategic Foresight have been identified. Furthermore, seven key aspects revealed, which are dealt with in literature: methods, goals, process, actors, organizational structure, elements, and value creation of Strategic Foresight. A different emphasis on each of these aspects has been noticed. While many articles are describing methods used for foresighting, only a small number of articles are discussing the value creation of Strategic Foresight. In addition, the literature review revealed research gaps in how to select appropriate methods and how to measure value creation.
Table of Contents
1 Introduction
1.1 Background
1.2 Research Gap
1.3 Research Questions
1.4 Structure
2 Methodology
2.1 Bibliometric Analysis
2.1.1 Database Selection
2.1.2 Automated Search
2.1.3 Manual Filtering
2.1.4 Categorization
2.1.5 Analysis
2.2 Literature Review
3 Results from the Bibliometric Analysis
3.1 Sample
3.2 Major Conferences
3.3 Major Journals
3.4 Major Authors
3.5 Identified Subjects
4 Results from the Literature Review
4.1 Strategic Foresight and its Elements
4.2 Goals of Strategic Foresight
4.3 Organizational Structure of Strategic Foresight
4.4 Actors involved in Strategic Foresight
4.5 The Process of Strategic Foresight
4.6 Methods of Strategic Foresight
4.7 Value Creation
5 Conclusion and Further Research
Objectives and Topics
This thesis aims to systematically identify and analyze existing scientific literature regarding Strategic Foresight. By employing bibliometric methods and a comprehensive literature review, the study seeks to map the research landscape, identify key contributors (authors, journals, conferences), and categorize the primary subjects discussed in order to highlight established frameworks and identify current research gaps.
- Bibliometric analysis of Strategic Foresight publications.
- Identification of relevant research journals, conferences, and authors.
- Categorization of literature by research fields and perspectives.
- Examination of core aspects: methods, goals, processes, actors, and value creation.
- Detection of research gaps in methodology selection and value measurement.
Extract from the Book
4.1 Strategic Foresight and its Elements
The Oxford Dictionary describes foresight as “the ability to see future needs” and to “care in preparing for these”. Strategic Foresight is defined as the ability to look forward and to use the insights in organizationally useful ways, such as shaping the strategy or defining new markets, products, and services. It is a process, which allows identifying future developments in science, technology, economy, and society systematically before these developments become trends. This process involves methods and techniques to gather, asses, and interpret relevant information and to support decision-making. Foresight is not forecasting; it does not predict the future, but prepares to meet future requirements and opportunities by anticipating a range of alternative developments.
The strategic areas to be analyzed are often classified as economic, technological, social, and political environment. Following Rohrbeck, et al. (2007), these areas are to be analyzed by means of Technology Foresight, Competitor Foresight, Consumer Foresight, and Political Environment Foresight.
Summary of Chapters
1 Introduction: Defines the relevance of Strategic Foresight in dynamic markets and outlines the research gap and questions.
2 Methodology: Details the bibliometric approach, including database selection, search strategy, and criteria for manual filtering and categorization.
3 Results from the Bibliometric Analysis: Presents findings on the sample size, relevant journals, key conferences, influential authors, and subject distributions.
4 Results from the Literature Review: Synthesizes academic findings on the definition, goals, organizational structure, actors, processes, methods, and value creation of Strategic Foresight.
5 Conclusion and Further Research: Summarizes the study’s findings and suggests directions for future research based on identified gaps.
Keywords
Strategic Foresight, Bibliometrics, Technology Foresight, Innovation Management, Competitive Intelligence, Environmental Scanning, Research Methodology, Literature Review, Technology Scouting, Roadmapping, Delphi Method, Scenario Planning, Value Creation, Weak Signals, Decision-Making.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the core focus of this research?
This thesis examines the scientific literature on Strategic Foresight to understand the structure of the field, its key contributors, and the methodologies used.
Which thematic areas are central to this work?
The study centers on definitions, organizational structures, actors involved, the processes of foresight, specific methodologies like roadmapping and Delphi, and the measurement of value creation.
What is the primary goal of the thesis?
The primary goal is to provide a structured overview of the existing literature, identify the most influential researchers and journals, and determine current research gaps.
Which scientific methods were applied?
The research uses bibliometric analysis, involving quantitative assessment of citations and publications, combined with a qualitative literature review to synthesize findings.
What topics are discussed in the main part?
The main part covers the elements of Strategic Foresight, its goals, the organizational positioning within companies, the roles of different actors, and diverse process models.
Which keywords best characterize the work?
The work is best characterized by terms such as Strategic Foresight, bibliometrics, innovation management, competitive intelligence, and technology forecasting.
How is the "value creation" of Strategic Foresight analyzed?
The thesis reviews how scholars attempt to measure the benefits of foresight and discusses frameworks like the Return on Competitive Intelligence Investment (ROCII).
Does the author distinguish between different levels of foresight?
Yes, the thesis differentiates between micro-level (organizational) and macro-level (regional/national) foresight, highlighting how objectives and methods differ between these levels.
What does the thesis conclude regarding research gaps?
The author identifies a notable lack of consensus and guidance on how to select appropriate foresight methods for specific situations and how to quantitatively measure the value created by foresight activities.
- Quote paper
- Nico Thom (Author), 2007, Bibliometric analysis and literature review on strategic foresight, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/88261
