Bibliometric analysis and literature review on strategic foresight

Contents

Abbreviations

Figures

Tables

1 Introduction
1.1 Background
1.2 Research Gap
1.3 Research Questions
1.4 Structure

2 Methodology
2.1 Bibliometric Analysis
2.1.1 Database Selection
2.1.2 Automated Search
2.1.3 Manual Filtering
2.1.4 Categorization
2.1.5 Analysis
2.2 Literature Review

3 Results from the Bibliometric Analysis
3.1 Sample
3.2 Major Conferences
3.3 Major Journals
3.4 Major Authors
3.5 Identified Subjects

4 Results from the Literature Review
4.1 Strategic Foresight and its Elements
4.2 Goals of Strategic Foresight
4.3 Organizational Structure of Strategic Foresight
4.4 Actors involved in Strategic Foresight
4.5 The Process of Strategic Foresight
4.6 Methods of Strategic Foresight
4.7 Value Creation

5 Conclusion and Further Research

References

Appendix 1: Identified Journal Articles

Appendix 2: Identified Authors

Appendix 3: Identified Conferences

Abstract

Rapid changes in technology and growing competition in consumer as well as business customer markets are forcing industry to explore new ways to foster product and service innovations. Especially multinational companies need to identify developments and trends in their technical, political, competitive, and consumer environment early in order to be capable of acting. Strategic Foresight is a framework, which allows the identification of weak signals of changes and reacting to these.

This thesis identifies and analyzes the existing literature concerning Strategic Foresight by means of bibliometric analysis and literature review.

For the bibliometric analysis the Science Citation Index and additional databases of journal publishers have been selected. These databases have been searched for journal articles and conference articles related to Strategic Foresight. The identified journal articles have been categorized concerning research field, research perspective, and discussed subjects. Journal articles have been analyzed for the most active authors and for journals with the highest number of articles related to Strategic Foresight. Conference articles have been analyzed concerning conferences dealing the most with Strategic Foresight.

In result, a growing scientific activity in the field of Strategic Foresight is shown. Seven highly relevant conferences, 15 highly relevant journals, and 12 major authors in the field of Strategic Foresight have been identified. Furthermore, seven key aspects revealed, which are dealt with in literature: methods, goals, process, actors, organizational structure, elements, and value creation of Strategic Foresight. A different emphasis on each of these aspects has been noticed. While many articles are describing methods used for foresighting, only a small number of articles are discussing the value creation of Strategic Foresight. In addition, the literature review revealed research gaps in how to select appropriate methods and how to measure value creation.

Zusammenfassung

Viele Unternehmen sind mit immer kürzer werdenden Technologielebenszyklen und zunehmendem Wettbewerb konfrontiert. Besonders international agierende Unternehmen müssen Entwicklungen und Trends in ihrem Umfeld frühzeitig erkennen, um rechtzeitig handeln zu können. Strategische Frühaufklärung (Strategic Foresight) ist ein Konzept, dass die Identifikation so genannter schwacher Signale ermöglicht, welche Veränderungen im Umfeld ankündigen. Ferner erlaubt Strategische Frühaufklärung eine adäquate Reaktion auf diese Veränderungen.

Diese Diplomarbeit identifiziert und analysiert die bestehende Literatur zur Strategischen Frühaufklärung. Mittels bibliometrischer Analysen werden führende Autoren, Fachzeitschriften und Konferenzen, sowie Themenschwerpunkte ermittelt. Darüber hinaus werden die in der Literatur behandelten Themen genauer analysiert.

Für die bibliometrische Analyse wurden der Science Citation Index und Datenbanken von Zeitschriftenverlagen ausgewählt. Diese Datenbanken wurden nach Artikeln in Zeitschriften und Tagungsberichten durchsuscht, die das Thema der Strategischen Frühaufklärung behandeln. Die identifizierten Zeitschriftenartikel wurden hinsichtlich Forschungsgebiet, Forschungsblickrichtung und behandelter Themen kategorisiert. Zeitschriftenartikel wurden im Hinblick auf die aktivsten Autoren und auf Zeitschriften mit den meisten relevanten Artikeln zur Strategischen Frühaufklärung untersucht. Artikel in Tagungsberichten wurden zur Ermittlung von Konferenzen untersucht, die sich schwerpunktmäßig mit Strategischer Frühaufklärung beschäftigen

Im Ergebnis konnte eine zunehmende Forschungsaktivität auf dem Gebiet der Strategischen Frühaufklärung festgestellt werden. Sieben relevante Konferenzen, 15 relevante Zeitschriften und 12 bedeutende Autoren wurden identifiziert. Außerdem wurden sieben Schwerpunktthemen erkannt und untersucht, die in der Literatur behandelt werden: Methoden, Ziele, Prozess, Akteure, Aufbauorganisation, Elemente und Wertbeitrag der Strategischen Frühaufklärung. Es fiel auf, dass diese Aspekte unterschiedlich stark behandelt wurden. Während eine Vielzahl von Artikeln Methoden beschreibt, gibt es nur wenige zum Thema des Wertbeitrages. Darüber hinaus wurden im Rahmen der Literaturanalyse Forschungslücken hinsichtlich der Auswahl geeigneter Methoden und hinsichtlich der finaziellen Bewertung des Wertbeitrages Strategischer Frühaufklärung entdeckt

Abbreviations

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Figures

Fig. 1: Aims and structure of the thesis

Fig. 2: Approach of bibliometric analysis

Fig. 3: The four elements of Strategic Foresight

Fig. 4: Number of identified journal articles per year (until 2006)

Fig. 5: Characteristics of authors

Fig. 6: Authors most active in different aspects of Strategic Foresight

Fig. 7: Author's focus on the two perspectives of Strategic Foresight

Fig. 8: Research perspective

Fig. 9: Number of journal articles per research field

Fig. 10: Number of journal articles per aspect of Strategic Foresight

Fig. 11: Organizational Structure of Technology Foresight

Fig. 12: Organizational concepts for listening posts

Fig. 13: determinants for organizational frameworks

Fig. 14: Actors of Strategic Foresight

Fig. 15: The role of Technology Scouts

Fig. 16: Organizational Scanning, Interpretation, and Learning

Fig. 17: Technology management process framework

Fig. 18: Science and Technology intelligence process

Fig. 19: Technology foresight process

Fig. 20: Methods of Strategic Foresight

Fig. 21: The choice of methods and assessment forms

Fig. 22: Definition of the ROCII

Tables

Table 1: Databases selected for bibliometric analysis

Table 2: Keywords for analysis

Table 3: Aspects of Strategic Foresight

Table 4: Overview of analyzed items

Table 5: Highly relevant IEEE conferences concerning Strategic Foresight

Table 6: Highly relevant journals concerning Strategic Foresight

Table 7: Most active authors

Table 8: Number of authors per aspect of Strategic Foresight

Table 9: Methods described in identified journal articles

Table 10: Number of authors per research field of Strategic Foresight

Introduction

1.1 Background

To date it is widely acknowledged that global economic competition intensifies and that technology is subject to rapid changes.^[1] This increasing complexity results in growing uncertainties about the future.^[2] It is also believed that success and survival of companies in such markets among other factors depends very much on their capability to innovate.^[3] In order to cope with complexity and uncertainties companies also have to be well informed about current and future developments and trends worldwide as well as they have to acquire technologies from external sources.^[4]

Foreseeing future developments in a complex environment requires the integration of Strategic Foresight activities within the organization.^[5] Strategic Foresight enables the early discovering of major changes by detecting so-called weak signals.^[6] Such weak signals signalize changes or discontinuities in technology, politics, science, culture, customer behaviour, competition, and legislation.^[7] Furthermore, Strategic Foresight allows reacting on these changes by anticipating alternative developments.^[8]

1.2 Research Gap

Many authors have described foresight, its methods, organization, and involved actors. However, an overview of the existing relevant scientific literature is missing. There is no information about who are the most active authors in this field. Also an overview of journals and conferences is missing, which are dealing with Strategic Foresight. Finally, there is no analysis of the different subjects related to Strategic Foresight discussed in scientific literature.

Research Questions

This diploma thesis identifies and analyzes the existing literature related to Strategic Foresight. For the identification and analysis, bibliometric methods are used. Further analysis takes place by a review of the identified literature. The result is an overview of the most active authors, of journals and conferences dealing with Strategic Foresight, and of subjects discussed within literature on Strategic Foresight. The following questions are going to be answered:

1. Which scientific journals are most relevant concerning Strategic Foresight?
2. Who are the important authors in the field of Strategic Foresight?
3. What are the main subjects in the field of Strategic Foresight?
4. What are the most important conferences regarding Strategic Foresight?

1.4 Structure

At first, the methodology for the analysis is described. Afterwards the results from bibliometric analysis and literature review are discussed. Finally, a conclusion is drawn regarding characteristics and research gaps of the existing literature as well as suggestions for further research are given.

2 Methodology

2.1 Bibliometric Analysis

Bibliometric analysis is a discipline in which research work described in scientific literature is evaluated by measuring certain indicators.^[9] It helps to identify the most active and the most cited authors and institutions, the most relevant publications, and the most used keywords within a certain research field.^[10] Furthermore, it allows analyzing the impact of a publication and the resonance among experts and can prove the reputation of the author.^[11] Bibliometrics in combination with other methods can be a tool for foresight itself, as it helps to identify trends.^[12]

This thesis makes use of bibliometrics in order to identify journal articles dealing with Strategic Foresight (SF) and to analyze these concerning most active authors and most relevant scientific journals in this field. In order to discover important conferences concerning SF bibliometrics is used for the identification of conference articles dealing with SF.

Most bibliometric research today is based on the Science Citation Index (SCI).^[13] The SCI^[14] is a database containing literature references as well as citation information. It gives access to 3.700 scholarly science and technical journals from several disciplines.^[15]

The initial approach to the bibliometric analysis for this thesis was to solely using the SCI. However, it turned out that the SCI does not contain several articles, which have been expected to be found. SF is an emerging research field not yet covered by a wide number of scientific journals. In addition, the SCI might not cover all (potentially) relevant journals. Out of the existing 120.000 journals and magazines worldwide^[16], SCI only represents 3%. Especially some new journals do not appear.

Therefore, the first step in designing the bibliometric analysis has been the selection of additional databases complementing the SCI. Afterwards every database has been searched with keywords related to Strategic Foresight. The resulting long lists of journal articles and conference articles have been filtered, in order to sort out overlaps and non-relevant articles. The journal articles of the resulting short list have been categorized concerning research field, research perspective, and discussed subjects. In a final step, journal articles have been analyzed for the most active authors and for journals with the highest number of articles related to Strategic Foresight. Conference articles have been analyzed concerning conferences dealing the most with Strategic Foresight. Fig. 2 gives an overview of the bibliometric analysis approach used for this thesis. Each process step is described in detail in the following.

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Fig. 2: Approach of bibliometric analysis

2.1.1 Database Selection

The first step in designing the bibliometric analysis has been the selection of additional databases complementing the SCI. Many publishers launched own databases giving access to their journals and providing search functionalities comparable to those of the SCI. Rankings of technology and innovation management journals^[17] have been consulted in order to identify important publishers. The research then has been extended to their databases: ScienceDirect, IEEE Xplore, InterScience, and IngentaConnect (Table 1).

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Table 1: Databases selected for bibliometric analysis

ScienceDirect^[18] is a database of Elsevier, a publisher in the fields of science & technology and health services. Elsevier publishes ca. 2.000 journals and in addition 1.900 books every year. All of these can be accessed via the ScienceDirect database.

IEEE Xplore^[19] is an online library of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), which not only gives access to IEEE journals and books, but also to proceedings of conferences such as PICMET, ICMIT, and many others.

InterScience^[20] is the database of Wiley, a publisher of scientific, technical, and medical publications. It gives access to more than 2.500 journals, books, and databases. The search function is limited, as it only allows searching for three different keywords at the same time.

IngentaConnect^[21] is not the database of a single publisher, but serves over 280 publishers. Therefore, it gives access to the high number of 30.926 publications including electronic content, journals, and book titles. Its search function is limited concerning the number of keywords.

2.1.2 Automated Search

Automated search has been performed after having selected the databases for the bibliometric analysis. These databases have been searched for journal articles by searching title, abstract, and keywords of the article with keywords related to SF. In addition, the IEEE Xplore database has been searched for conference articles using the same keywords. Relevant keywords have been identified in an earlier literature screening (Table 2). The selection of keywords can affect the results significantly.^[22] Therefore, different spellings of keywords as well as their singular and plural forms have been included. However, there is the possibility that some relevant articles might not contain any of the keywords.^[23] The search has been performed using all keywords at the same time, in order to avoid overlaps. This was not possible in the case of InterScience and IngentaConntect, since the search function of these databases is limited concerning the number of keywords. In order not to leave out any of the keywords, the search has been repeated several times with different keywords. Resulting overlaps have been sorted out in the following step.

Keywords (in alphabetical order)

Competitive Intelligence Competitor Intelligence Corporate Foresight Environmental Scanning Market Intelligence Strategic Foresight Technical Intelligence Technology Exploration Technology Forecasting Technology Foresight Technology Intelligence Technology Monitoring Technology Scanning Technology Scouting Technology Screening Technology Trend Technology Watch

Table 2: Keywords for analysis

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Before starting the search, the observation period had to be defined. It is suggested to limit research using bibliometric methods to a period of five up to ten years.^[24] Since SF is believed to be an emerging research field such a limit has been neglected. The intention was to also analyze the development of the research field over time.^[25] In addition, not all of the selected databases support searching in periods. For a better comparability, all databases have been searched without limiting the period.

2.1.3 Manual Filtering

In a third step, the resulting long lists of journal articles and conference articles have been filtered manually, in order to sort out overlaps and non-relevant articles.

One reason for the appearance of overlaps has been the selection of different databases. The SCI covers a huge number of publications from different publishers. Therefore, many of the identified articles in the long list have been found in both, SCI and publisher’s database. Additional overlaps appeared during the search in InterScience and IngentaConnect. The search function of both databases is limited concerning the number of keywords. While the search in the other databases could be performed using all keywords at the same time, the search in InterScience and IngentaConnect had to be performed in several rounds, in order not to leave out any keyword. Since some articles contained keywords used in different search rounds, these articles have been found more than once.

Non-relevant articles to be sorted out have been mainly such articles only reporting about certain trends, but not about the methodology of how to identify trends. The filtering has been performed by reading the abstracts and scanning the content of every article.

2.1.4 Categorization

The articles in the resulting short list of journal articles (Appendix 1) have been categorized into different research fields, research perspectives and aspects of SF addressed by the journal articles. This categorization has been chosen in order to identify the main subjects dealt with in the field of SF.

The categorization into different research fields within the field of Strategic Foresight is following the definition of Rohrbeck, et al. (2007), who differentiates between Technology Foresight, Consumer Foresight, Competitor Foresight, and Political Environment Foresight (Fig. 3). Each field comprises different activities and different goals, therefore it is of interest to analyze what these activities and goals are, how often which research field is dealt with and which authors are most active in which research field.

Fig. 3: The four elements of Strategic Foresight Source: based on Rohrbeck, et al. (2007), p. 4

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Furthermore, it would be interesting to know, which aspects of Strategic Foresight are discussed in literature and by whom. Such aspects have been identified during a first screening of literature and have been chosen for additional categorization (Table 3). This differentiation is interesting in order to identify major topics and contributors, but also potential research gaps.

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Table 3: Aspects of Strategic Foresight

Finally as a third category, the research perspective has been chosen. It has been noticed that the described foresight activities are either on the level of an organization (micro level), on the level of a regional/national/supranational economy or an industrial sector (macro level), or related to both levels. Differentiating between micro level and macro level is interesting, because foresight on each of these levels has different purposes. While foresight on a company level aims at supporting strategy formulation and technology and innovation management, foresight on a macro level rather aims at governmental budget allocation and legislation.^[26]

2.1.5 Analysis

The categorized journal articles have been analyzed in order to answer the following questions:

1. Which scientific journals are most relevant concerning Strategic Foresight?
2. Who are the important authors in the field of Strategic Foresight?
3. What are the main subjects in the field of Strategic Foresight?

A common indicator in bibliometrics is the number of citations received by a publication (citation rate).^[27] Citation analysis is used to identify the impact of authors and journals.^[28] It can be performed based on the SCI. Nevertheless, since the number of articles published can be an indicator for important authors and journals as well, it has been chosen as such for this thesis.^[29]

When using citation data various limitations have to be considered. Citation analysis is often subject of criticism. For example, the context of the citation is not taken into account while only counting citations.^[30] The reason for citing an article is not necessarily appreciation for the very one, it could be as well within severe criticism. In addition, again the SCI as a tool for citation analysis is limited to citations of journals listed in its database. Also, research field, publication year, language used, and document type influence citation rates.^[31] Some research fields attract more attention than others do, some languages are only spoken by a small number of people, and different types of documents attract different target groups.

Therefore, it is recommended to only asses the quality of a journal using the citation rate, but not using it for assessing an author or individual article.^[32]

In total, a short list of 134 relevant journal articles has been discovered (Appendix 1) and analyzed for:

- Number of journal articles by a single author,
- Number of articles per journal,
- Development of number of journal articles over time,
- Research perspective of the article,
- Subjects covered by the journal article:
- Elements of Strategic Foresight dealt with
- Aspects of Strategic Foresight dealt with

The number of journal articles per author and per journal has been counted, in order to identify most active authors and highly relevant journals.^[33]

The development of journal articles over time has been analyzed in order to identify trends in the research field of Strategic Foresight (SF). Journal articles have been categorized by the year they have been published. Then the number of articles per year has been counted. With the help of bibliometric analysis conclusions can be drawn from the development of the number of articles concerning the future development of a research field. An increased number of articles indicate an increased interest in a research field due to new findings and the need for further research.^[34]

For analyzing the research perspective of the journal articles, the abstract of the articles have been read and the content screened. An article can either deal with the micro perspective, with the macro perspective, or both perspectives of SF (e.g. when dealing with methods which can be applied in both perspectives).

In order to analyze the subjects discussed in the journal articles the articles have been screened and their abstracts have been read. The number of journal articles per research field and per aspect of SF dealt with has been counted. Journal articles can deal with SF in general, with one or more of the elements of SF, or both. Furthermore, they can deal with one or more aspects of SF:

- Articles have been considered to be dealing with the aspect "methods”, if they briefly describe methods, deal with one method in detail, or give a broad overview of existing methods in the context of SF.
- If an article describes the goals of SF or its elements, it has been categorized as dealing with the aspect "goals”.
- If the process of SF or its elements is described, the article has been categorized as dealing with the aspect "process”.
- If organizational units or roles involved in the process of SF are described, the article has been categorized as dealing with the aspect "actors”.
- If an article deals with the location, where foresight activities take place within an organization, it has been categorized as dealing with the aspect "organizational structure”.
- If an article refers to the different environmental areas, which have to be observed in the course of SF, it has been categorized as dealing with the aspect "elements”.
- Articles describing benefits of SF or its elements and/ or how to measure the created value have been categorized as dealing with the aspect "value creation”.

As Strategic Foresight is an emerging field of research, also scientific conferences are considered being an important source for research results.^[35] Therefore, a fourth question had to be answered:

4. What are the most important conferences regarding Strategic Foresight?

This question has been answered with the short list of conference articles resulting from the search in the IEEE Xplore database. IEEE organizes more than 450 conferences and meetings every year.^[36] The short list (Appendix 3) consists of 74 conference articles from 31 different IEEE conferences. The number of conference articles has been counted per conference, in order to identify the conferences receiving the highest number of conference articles concerning Strategic Foresight.

2.2 Literature Review

In the second part of the analysis, the content of the identified articles and of additional literature has been analyzed. The analysis has been structured by using the different aspects of Strategic Foresight (Table 3) in order to answer the following questions:

1. How are Strategic Foresight and its elements defined?
2. What are the goals of Strategic Foresight?
3. How is foresight structured organizationally?
4. Who are the actors involved in foresight activities?
5. Which process steps are suggested?
6. Which methods are used within the foresight process?
7. What is the value created by Strategic Foresight and how can it be measured?

The findings from literature concerning each of the aspects have been summarized and discussed, and research gaps have been identified.

3.1 Sample

After having selected the databases, these have been searched for journal articles first. Every database has been searched with the same keywords (Table 2). The resulting lists from each database have been imported into one long list containing 2.908 journal articles in total.

About one third of the articles appeared in both, Science Citation Index and publishers’ databases. These overlaps have been removed as a first step during the filtering of the long list. Furthermore, InterScience and IngentaConnect had limitations concerning the number of keywords to be searched at the same time. The search had to be repeated several times in order to consider every keyword. Since some articles contained a couple of the selected keywords, these articles appeared more than once in the search results. These overlaps have been removed as well. Finally, the remaining journal articles have been checked for their relevance by reading their abstracts and scanning their content. A great number of articles containing the selected keywords only described certain trends or future developments, but did not deal with the methodology of foresight. Such articles have been removed from the long list as well. The resulting short list contained 134 journal articles written by 205 different authors.

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Table 4: Overview of analyzed items

The IEEE Xplore database has been searched a second time with the same keywords, but this time for conference proceedings only. The resulting long list contained 395 conference articles, which have been filtered in the same way as the long list of journal articles before. Articles not dealing with the methodology of foresight have been removed. The resulting short list contained 74 conference articles linked to 31 different IEEE conferences.

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^[1] Andersen, et al. (2004), p. 312; Anderson (1997), p. 665; Meyer (2002), p. 246; Reger (2001), p. 533; Rothwell (1992), p. 221; Thom (1992), p. 5

^[2] Andersen, et al. (2004), p. 312; Patton (2005), p. 1083

^[3] Brown/Eisenhardt (1995), p. 344; Rothwell (1992), p. 221; Schlicksupp (1992), p. 9

^[4] Ashton, et al. (1991), p. 94; Ashton/Stacey (1995), p. 79-80; Brown/Eisenhardt (1997), p. 16­17; Bürgel, et al. (2005), p. 31; Chatterji (1996), p. 48-49; Coates (1985), p. 33-34

^[5] Andriopoulos/Gotsi (2006), p. 51; Costanzo (2004), p. 219; Slaughter (1998), p. 384; Wehrmeyer, et al. (2002), p. 37

^[6] Day/Schoemaker (2005), p. 135; Ilmola/Kuusi (2006), p. 909; Lichtenthaler (2004a), p. 332

^[7] Ansoff (1976), p. 139; Ashton/Stacey (1995), p. 100; Frishammar/Hörte (2005), p. 254; Huxold (1990), p. 175; Patton (2005), p. 1086; Preble, et al. (1988), p. 5; Ruff (2006), p. 281; van Wyk (1997), p. 23-24

^[8] Coates (1985), p. 30

^[9] Carrizo-Sainero (2000), p. 1

^[10] Daim, et al. (2006), p. 984

^[11] Ball/ Tunger (2005), p. 15-21

^[12] Ball/ Tunger (2005), p. 35; Daim, et al. (2006), p. 982; Wolfrum (1994), p. 126

^[13] Ball/ Tunger (2005), p. 17; cp. Chao, et al. (2007), Cornelius/Persson (2006), Daim, et al. (2006), Porter (2005), Onodera (2001)

^[14] accessible at http://www.isiknowledge.com

^[15] Thomson Scientific, http://scientific.thomson.com/products/sci/

^[16] Lyman/ Varian (2000), http://www2.sims.berkeley.edu/research/projects/how-much- info/summary.html

^[17] Kommission für Technologie- und Innovationsmanagement; Linton (2006), p. 286

^[18] Elsevier (ScienceDirect), http://www.sciencedirect.com

^[19] IEEE (IEEEXplore), http://ieeexplore.ieee.org

^[20] Wiley (InterScience), http://www.interscience.wiley.com

^[21] Inderscience (IngentaConnect), http://www.ingentaconnect.com

^[22] Bengisu/Nekhili (2006), p. 840

^[23] Coates, et al. (1994), p. 27

^[24] Ball/ Tunger (2005), p. 25; Lundberg (2006), p. 18

^[25] cp. Ball/ Tunger (2005), p. 35

^[26] Blind, et al. (1999), p. 15; Bürgel, et al. (2005), p. 31; Slaughter (1998), p. 382 et sqq.

^[27] Neuhaus/Daniel (2006, accepted for publication), p. 3; Ball/ Tunger (2005), p. 15

^[28] Pilkington/ Teichert (2006), p. 289

^[29] Pilkington/ Teichert (2006), p. 289-291

^[30] Opthof (1997), p. 1

^[31] Carrizo-Sainero (2000), p. 3; Lundberg (2006), p. 13

^[32] Opthof (1997), p. 6

^[33] cp. Pilkington/ Teichert (2006), p. 289-291

^[34] Ball/Tunger (2005), p. 35-38

^[35] Glänzel, et al. (2006), p. 457

^[36] IEEE (Homepage), http://www.ieee.org