The case study wants to use the political-strategic approach to populism to explain the phenomena of Trump’s trade policy and the outcome of populists and therefore republican vote share to understand the impact on the 2018 mid-term election results for the republican party. With the focus on the 2018 mid-term elections, is it essential to limit the time span for this case study from Trump’s inauguration until the mid-term election 2018.
Followed by this introduction is the chapter about the theoretical theory for this final paper, the political-strategic approach to populism by Kurt Weyland, followed by the empirical chapter about Trump’s trade policy until the mid-term elections 2018 and the impact on populists and therefore republican vote share, followed by the impact on the republican election results in the mid-term elections 2018. The last chapter presents the research results and a conclusion and implications for further research. Therefore, it is necessary to lay out the theoretical foundation of this paper, the political-strategic approach to populism in the next chapter as a starting point for this research to determine if Trump’s trade policy was successful.
Table of Contents
1. Donald Trump’s brake with Americas foreign policy traditions
2. Theoretical overview
2.1 The Political-Strategic Approach to Populism
2.2 Defining populist voters
3. Analysis of Trump’s foreign policy and the resonance within the republican party voters
3.1 Trump’s trade policy between his inauguration and the midterms elections 2018
3.2 Outcome of Trumps trade policy on republican voter share in the midterm elections 2018
4. Results and Conclusion
Research Objectives and Core Themes
This paper examines whether President Donald Trump’s trade policy served as an effective political strategy to mobilize populist voters and secure electoral success during the 2018 midterm elections. By applying the political-strategic approach to populism, the research investigates the correlation between Trump’s trade maneuvers—particularly the trade war with China—and the subsequent impact on Republican vote shares in regions economically dependent on agricultural exports.
- Application of the political-strategic approach to populism by Kurt Weyland.
- Analysis of Donald Trump’s trade policy and protectionist measures (e.g., NAFTA renegotiation, steel/aluminum tariffs).
- Examination of the economic impact of Chinese retaliatory tariffs on American soybean production.
- Assessment of the 2018 midterm election results through the lens of voter behavior and regional economic reliance.
- Evaluation of the success of populism as a tool for political mobilization and legislative power preservation.
Excerpt from the Book
3.1 Trump’s trade policy between his inauguration and the midterms elections 2018
To understand the impact that Trump’s trade policy had on populists voters and the midterm election results of 2018, it is necessary to understand which actions Trump took in the field of trade policy. To understand Trump’s trade policy, it is necessary to understand Trump’s foreign policy as an extension of his domestic politics: “His foreign policy is not conceptualized with a grand strategy in mind, other than a conviction that the liberal world order has not worked well for the U.S. Instead, the most important organizing principal is the need to attract and retain the support of his political base.”(Thompson 2017: 4).
This can be seen as a direct proof that Weyland’s assumption that populists constantly have to mobilise people to win and hold power by winning at the polls: “On this dimension, populism clearly prefers numbers.[…] To make numbers count in politics, populism constantly mobilizes ‘the people’, that is, the large majority of the populace. Based on the principle of ‘one person, one vote’, populism seeks to overwhelm its adversaries in the electoral arena […] with massive victories at the polls” (Weyland 2017: 56-57).
Summary of Chapters
1. Donald Trump’s brake with Americas foreign policy traditions: Introduces the research question regarding the resonance of Trump's trade policy among populist voters during the 2018 midterms.
2. Theoretical overview: Establishes the theoretical foundation using Kurt Weyland’s political-strategic approach to populism and defines the demographics of populist voters in the U.S.
3. Analysis of Trump’s foreign policy and the resonance within the republican party voters: Details the specific trade actions taken by the Trump administration and analyzes the empirical outcome of these policies on Republican vote shares.
4. Results and Conclusion: Concludes that the trade policy, specifically the trade war with China, functioned as a failed strategy that negatively impacted the Republican Party's electoral performance.
Keywords
Donald Trump, Trade Policy, Populism, 2018 Midterm Elections, Republican Party, Political-Strategic Approach, Protectionism, Soybean Tariffs, Voter Mobilization, Trade War, China, Economic Nationalism, Electoral Results, Foreign Policy, Kurt Weyland.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the core focus of this research paper?
The paper explores the effectiveness of Donald Trump's trade policy as a political tool intended to mobilize his base and secure electoral success for the Republican Party in the 2018 midterm elections.
What are the primary thematic areas covered?
The work covers U.S. trade policy, the political-strategic approach to populism, voter behavior analysis, and the economic repercussions of international trade wars on domestic agriculture.
What is the central research question?
The research asks whether Trump’s trade policy resonated positively with populist voters in the 2018 midterm elections and whether this resulted in a positive impact on the Republican Party's election outcomes.
Which scientific methodology is employed?
The author uses a single case study approach, focusing on Trump's trade policy to explain the phenomenon of populist support and its influence on election results.
What topics are discussed in the main body?
The main body examines the theoretical framework of populism, the timeline of Trump's trade actions (including NAFTA and tariffs), and the statistical analysis of how soybean-producing counties voted in 2018.
Which keywords best characterize this work?
The work is characterized by terms such as Populism, Trade Policy, Republican Party, 2018 Midterm Elections, and Economic Nationalism.
How does the author define populism in this context?
Following Kurt Weyland, the author defines populism as a political strategy used by personal leaders to gain power through direct, unmediated support from a large, unorganized following.
What was the specific impact of the China trade war on the elections?
The analysis indicates that counties heavily reliant on soy production experienced a decrease in Republican vote share, suggesting that the trade war created a backlash against the Republican Party.
Did the author consider the results of the 2018 midterm elections successful for Trump?
No, the author concludes that the strategy failed, as the Republican Party suffered a significant loss of its majority in the House of Representatives.
- Citation du texte
- Tim Wolters (Auteur), 2020, Trump’s trade policy. A successful Strategy for winning the midterm Elections 2018?, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/994259
