The aim of this thesis is to compare the Indian future economic situation with China´s future economic situation. In order to get an outlook for China and India, the past and the changes now must be considered.
Until recently, India and China stood for poverty and backwardness. Among the leading economically strong countries in Asia were Japan, then Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea. Within a very short time, this has changed radically: For just 20 years China and 10 years India have both been among the world's high growth regions and investment magnets.
If we look at the current situation in the world, China is one of the leading countries when it comes to exports and is also technologically ahead of many countries. On the other hand, India is a country that is just starting to grow economically.
India is seen as one of the BRIC countries along with Brazil, Russia, and China as a new economic power to help the world economy out of the crisis. Due to the current outbreak of the coronavirus, China is experiencing many negative effects. Not only because of the number of ill and dead people in China, but also on an economic level. This leads to the collapse of the economy in China.
To what extent will Chinese trade with the world be affected and can Chinas economy recover before that or will India overtake China economically and become wealthier?
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
1.1 Problem Discussion
1.2 The aim of this work
1.3 Research question
1.4 Hypotheses
2. Methodology
3. Theoretical background
4. India economics
4.1 India's economic development in the colonial era
4.2 The independence of India after the colonial period
4.3 India's reforms
4.4 India Economic growth
5. Chinas economics
5.1 Country information
5.2 Political system
5.3Histroical reforms
5.4 China's economic growth
6. Comparison of Chinas and India economic (Analyse)
7. Future expectation
8. Conclusion
Objectives and Research Themes
This thesis aims to conduct a comparative analysis of the future economic trajectories of India and China. By examining historical economic developments, reform processes, and current socioeconomic conditions, the study evaluates which nation is likely to achieve greater prosperity over the next two decades, utilizing the theoretical framework of Mancur Olson's "Rise and Decline of Nations" to assess the impact of interest groups on economic performance.
- Comparative economic analysis of India and China's development trajectories.
- Evaluation of economic reform impacts on growth and market stability.
- Application of Mancur Olson’s theory regarding collective action and interest groups.
- Investigation into the influence of political systems on economic prosperity.
- Prognosis of future economic positioning based on current structural and political factors.
Excerpt from the Book
Theory according to Mancur Olson rise and decline of nations
In his book "The Logic of Collective Action", Mancur Olson deals with the actions of individuals within an organization and how these organizations function in the production of collective goods. Olson defines organizations (synonym: groups) as associations for the purpose of pursuing the common interests of their members
Olson differentiates between three types of groups, the small ("privileged") groups, medium-sized and large ("latent"/"comprehensive") groups. According to Olson, small groups are best able to assert their interests. In small groups, the effect of an individual's commitment to the group interest is felt by the individual and his share of the group's profit is large. In addition, there is a social incentive in these groups, since if an individual does not participate in the provision of the collective good, he is worse off within the group in his own image. In large groups, on the other hand, it is not noticeable when individuals do not participate, which means that it makes the most sense for the individual not to participate in the production of the collective good. He benefits from the collective good if the others provide it without having to participate in its provision himself (free-rider syndrome). For the same reason that it is not noticeable whether an individual participates or not, there is no positive incentive for the individual to participate, because he or she cannot achieve anything directly through his or her involvement. The individual's share of the group's profit is relatively small, due to the size of the group and there are no social incentives because the group is so large that the members cannot monitor each other.
Summary of Chapters
1. Introduction: Presents the motivation for the study, the research problem, and the theoretical framework regarding international trade and development theories.
2. Methodology: Details the qualitative research approach used to investigate the complex economic relationship between China and India.
3. Theoretical background: Explores fundamental economic theories, including macroeconomics, growth theories, and Mancur Olson's logic of collective action.
4. India economics: Analyzes India's economic history, from the colonial era through post-independence reforms to current growth dynamics.
5. Chinas economics: Examines China's economic landscape, political system, historical reforms, and current developmental strategies.
6. Comparison of Chinas and India economic (Analyse): Applies Mancur Olson's theoretical framework to compare the social and economic structures of both nations.
7. Future expectation: Provides a prognostic view of the economic prosperity of both countries based on the preceding analysis.
8. Conclusion: Summarizes the key findings and addresses the limitations of the analysis in predicting future economic outcomes.
Keywords
India, China, Economic Growth, Gross Domestic Product, Mancur Olson, Collective Action, Distributional Coalitions, Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Reforms, Comparative Advantage, Labour Market, Inflation, Unemployment, Political Economy, Globalization
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the core focus of this bachelor thesis?
The work focuses on comparing the future economic situation and prosperity levels of India and China over the next 20 years.
What are the primary themes discussed in the paper?
Key themes include historical economic developments, reform processes (such as the Green Revolution in India and the "Four Modernizations" in China), the impact of political structures on economic freedom, and the role of lobbying and special interest groups.
What is the central research question?
The research asks to what extent the GDP of India and China has developed, what progress is occurring in their labour markets, and what the comparative economic opportunities and deficits for both nations are.
Which scientific methodology is applied?
The study utilizes a qualitative research approach, supported by theoretical frameworks—specifically the "Rise and Decline of Nations" by Mancur Olson—to interpret economic data and historical trends.
What does the main part of the thesis cover?
The main body covers the economic history and structural reforms of both countries, followed by an analytical comparison using Mancur Olson's theoretical conclusions regarding interest groups and societal efficiency.
Which keywords characterize this work?
The work is characterized by terms such as Economic Growth, GDP, Collective Action, Distributional Coalitions, Foreign Direct Investment, and Political Economy.
How does the caste system specifically impact India's economic performance in the context of this study?
The study argues that the caste system contributes to structural discrimination and maintains rigid hierarchies, which according to the applied theory, limits societal flexibility and hinders optimal economic growth.
Why does the author consider China's government a "comprehensive organization"?
The author identifies the Chinese government as a comprehensive organization because it centralizes control and, in its view, acts with the intention of fostering national prosperity, though it notes a lack of "inclusive" features compared to democracies.
- Citation du texte
- Ramla Bashir (Auteur), 2020, The Future Economic Situation of China and India. A Comparison, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/995509
