This paper will address the following research questions:
To what extent will Japan's adjusted strategy (Independent Variable) have an impact on the deterrence effectiveness (Dependent Variable) and the security dilemma/ stability-instability paradox (Intervening Variables)?
During 2022, Japan (JAP) saw deteriorating security dynamics with North Korea (NK) regarding missile tests, plans for building the world’s strongest nuclear force, and bellicose rhetoric. These provocations aimed at compelling JAP to refrain from further conducting military exercises with the US and South Korea and reconsidering plans for “fundamentally” strengthening its “defense capabilities” and a “substantial increase of Japan’s defense budget”. In turn, JAP chose these measures to respond to NK’s
continued violations of UN Security Council resolutions and increased threat perceptions. That culminated in the revision of its “National Security Strategy (NSS)”/ “National Defense Strategy (NDS)” on 16 Dec. 2022, which aims at
reinforcing the deterrence posture to 1) dissuade attacks against JAP or its US ally and 2) resolve the (nuclear) missile armaments/ test issue.
Inhaltsverzeichnis (Table of Contents)
- INTRODUCTION
- THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS
- Definition & Assessment Framework for Deterrence Effectiveness
- Intervening Mechanisms
- JAPAN'S REVISED SECURITY AND DEFENSE STRATEGY
- ASSESSMENT
- Past Outcome Perspective
- Future Trajectory Perspective
- CONCLUSION
Zielsetzung und Themenschwerpunkte (Objectives and Key Themes)
This paper aims to analyze the effectiveness of Japan's revised National Security and National Defense Strategy in deterring North Korea's nuclear ambitions. The paper utilizes theoretical frameworks of deterrence and examines the potential impact of the revised strategy on the security dilemma and stability-instability paradox. The analysis will be conducted from both past outcome and future trajectory perspectives.
- Deterrence effectiveness in the context of North Korea's nuclear program
- Impact of Japan's revised security strategy on the security dilemma
- Stability-instability paradox and its implications for deterrence
- Assessment of Japan's military capabilities and their effectiveness in deterring North Korea
- The role of international support and alliances in influencing deterrence effectiveness
Zusammenfassung der Kapitel (Chapter Summaries)
- Introduction: This chapter provides an overview of the deteriorating security dynamics between Japan and North Korea, highlighting the provocations by North Korea and Japan's subsequent response, including the revision of its National Security Strategy (NSS) and National Defense Strategy (NDS). The research questions focus on the impact of the revised strategy on deterrence effectiveness and the security dilemma/stability-instability paradox.
- Theoretical Considerations: Chapter two introduces the concept of deterrence effectiveness and outlines a framework for assessing it. It discusses the broader concept of deterrence associated with the tailored deterrence theory, suitable for “rogue state” cases like North Korea. This section explores the factors influencing deterrence effectiveness, including international support, motivation, military capability, signaling, risk tolerance, and decision-making. The chapter also examines the challenges and limitations associated with assessing deterrence effectiveness, specifically the lack of objectivity and consistent observability of these factors.
- Japan's Revised Security and Defense Strategy: This chapter provides a detailed analysis of Japan's revised NSS and NDS, emphasizing the key elements related to deterrence. It explores the objectives of the revised strategy, focusing on dissuading attacks against Japan and its allies, as well as resolving the nuclear missile armaments/test issue.
- Assessment: Chapter four assesses the effectiveness of the revised strategy from both past outcome and future trajectory perspectives. The analysis considers the historical context of escalating events and the potential impact of the revised strategy on North Korea's behavior. It explores the implications for the security dilemma and stability-instability paradox, highlighting the potential for unintended consequences and the need for careful consideration of signaling and risk tolerance.
Schlüsselwörter (Keywords)
This paper focuses on the following key concepts: deterrence effectiveness, tailored deterrence, security dilemma, stability-instability paradox, North Korea's nuclear program, Japan's defense capabilities, military exercises, signaling, risk tolerance, and international support.
- Citation du texte
- Mathias Jahn (Auteur), 2023, Analysis of Japan's revised National Security and National Defense Strategy for the North Korean case, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/1336034
