A Cruise into the Future

How could the german cruise market look like in 2025?

Bachelor Thesis, 2009

98 Pages




List of abreviations
List of Charts
List of Graphics

1 Introduction
1.1 State of the art
1.2 Target of this paper
1.3 Methodology

2 Theoratical frameworks
2.1 Zoning of the market
2.2 Definitions

3 The current market situation
3.1 Introduction
3.2 The general market 3.2.1 Economic crisis
3.2.2 The development from the past up to the present
3.2.3 Short term developments Oasis
3.2.4 Tourism analysis 2009
3.2.5 The german cruise market 2008
3.2.6 Distribution channels
3.3 Customers site
3.3.1 Demographics
3.3.2 Tourist behavior
3.3.3 STEP analysis
3.3.4 SWOT analysis
3.4. Business site
3.4.1 The players
3.4.2 Facts about the business
3.4.3 SWOT analysis
3.4.4 STEP analysis
3.5 Summary
3.5.1 Pros and cons for a cruise vacation
3.5.2 Current success

4 Current developments and future trends concernina the cruise industry
4.1 Introduction
4.1.1 Current success: boom or bust?
4.2 Customers site
4.2.1 Demographics
4.2.2 Sociological
4.2.3 Networks "Prosumenten"
4.3 Business site
4.3.1 Investments Ships on order Port / Shore side activities
4.3.2 Technical development Sky sails Freedom project Fuel cells
4.3.3 Business trends Resort with lifeboats
4.4 Global developments and trends
4.4.1 Proceeding developments Globalisation Glocalization Standardization vs. customization Mcdonaldisation Disneysation Happyness economics Cocooning / Clanning Luxese
4.4.2 Future trends Virtual traveling Egonomics AtmosFear
4.5 Summary

5 Disscusion of findings and conclusion
5.1 Customers site
5.2 Business site
5.3 Conclusion


Ships on Order Book



World Wide Web


There is no doubt that international tourism expanded significantly in the last decade. Especially the cruise industry did an extraordinary performance with its two digit growth rates and investments in billions range. The tourism industry is the so called ‘leading economy’ of the 21st century (Petermann, Revermann and Scherz 2006) and the cruise industry is one of the master performers within the tourism industry. The ‘big three players’ (Carnival Corporation, Royal Caribbean Cruises and Star Cruises Group) made in 2005 over $ 22billion in revenues and profits more than $ 3billion (Peisley 2006).

But will this development going on for the next years or decades?

This assignment will introduce the state of the art of the cruise industry and discuss trends and developments within economy and society. It will be discussed how these developments are affecting the tourism industry with a focus on the cruise industry. The final discussion of findings will try to conceptualise a picture of the future of the cruise market covering the next 15 years. The conclusion could give some references how to act to be prepared for the future.


List of abbreviations

illustration not visible in this excerpt

List of charts

Chart 1 ‘passengers’

Chart 2 ‘age groups’

Chart 3 ,National Providers of Ocean going Cruises’

Chart 4 International Providers of Ocean going Cruises ‘

Chart 5 ,Structure of Providers’

Chart 6 ‘Calculated capacities’

Chart 7 ‘Calculated growth rate’

Chart 8 capacities on the German market’

Chart 9 ‘categories by price levels’

Chart 10 ,Daten, Fakten, Trends zum demographischen Wandel 4’

Chart 11 ‘online age groups’

List of graphics

Graphic 1 ‘pax development’

Graphic 2 ‘Oasis’

Graphic 3 ‘Lasting of T rips’

Graphic 4 ‘near by’

Graphic 5 ‘Targets’

Graphic 6 ‘Actions’

Graphic 7 ,Distribution Channels’

Graphic 8 ‘Populaton by age groups’

Graphic 9 ,Daten, Fakten, T rends zum demographischen Wandel 1’

Graphic 10 ,Daten, Fakten, Trends zum demographischen Wandel 2’

Graphic 11 ‘STEP customers view’

Graphic 12 ‘SWOT customers view’ (selfmade)

Graphic 13 ‘market share’

Graphic 14 ‘European markets’

Graphic 15 ‘Ten years development of passenger numbers’

Graphic 16 ‘Cruises by price levels’

Graphic 17 ‘averaged distribution by age groups’

Graphic 18 ‘SWOT suppliers view’

Graphic 19 ‘STEP suppliers view’

Graphic 20 ‘most frequented routes for ocean cruising’

Graphic 21 ‘ten years development of revenues on the German market’

Graphic 22 ,Daten, Fakten, Trends zum demographischen Wandel 3’

Graphic 23 ,Daten, Fakten, Trends zum demographischen Wandel 5’

Graphic 24 ,Daten, Fakten, Trends zum demographischen Wandel 6’

Graphic 25 ‘size matters’

Graphic 26 ‘online’

1 Introduction

1.1 State of the art

Cruising has been the fastest-growing segment of the vacation business for the last decade, beating land-based resorts, theme parks, and excursions. „Studies show that whether they are first-time or frequent cruisers, the majority of travellers (63-66%) rate cruising as better than other vacation experiences. Ninety percent of them expect to take more cruises, and nearly 60 percent dream of taking a cruise some day. “(Dickinson, Vladimir 1997, page 17) More and more people are getting onboard the cruise vacation vessels. And as cruising gains visibility and popularity, it is getting more attention...within the travel industry, in the business world and in the media. „More than two decades of spectacular growth - averaging 8.4% per year - have made the cruise industry the brightest star on the vacation travel stage, not to mention one of the great success stories of any business.“ (http://www.iccl.org/faq/cruising.cfm last seen June 15, 2009)

Cruise vacations boast the highest satisfaction ratings among all types of vacation travel. Once people try cruising, they come back again and again. „By its nature, cruising is an enterprise that links the world. Cruise ships call at ports on every continent; their passengers and crews comprise people from every part of the world; and the industry benefits hundreds of countries and their citizens. One of the traditional appeals of a cruise is the opportunity it provides to visit several destinations in one excellent vacation experience. Frequent cruisers especially applaud cruises as a way to try out a vacation area to which they might want to return." (http://www.iccl.org/faq/cruising.cfm last seen June 15, 2009)

„Das Erlebnis steht im Mittelpunkt solcher Kreuzfahrten. Das Motto heißt: Möglichst schnell, möglichst viel, möglichst intensiv erleben.“ (Schäfer, 1998, page 192)

1.2 Target of this paper

The target of this assignment is to provide a rough overview about the current cruise market. A special focus is set on the German market. Proceeding developments, trends and technical processing’s affecting the cruise market will be introduced and discussed. The conclusion will try to give an outlook on the future development of the German cruise market for the next 15 years.

1.3 Methodology

The topic is to be localised because of the wide range of the market. Definitions of used terms will be given to make exact statements and avoid misunderstandings.

The market will be analysed with two different views: one side is the customers view ending in an estimation of future demand. The other side is the business side, ending in an estimated future supply. Supply and demand should be match in the equilibrium for a healthy market.

Because of different sources the financial terms are described either in US- Dollar or in Euro. The changing currency rate would avoid statements and an exchange makes the figures only more complicated.

The acquisition of data for demographics, market analysis and tourist behaviour was made derivative by public available statistics.

> For the ‘Tourismusanalyse 2009’ by the ‘Stiftung für Zukunftsfragen’ where asked 4,000 persons from the age of 14 on in January 2009. The questioning was made by ‘GfK Marktforschung. The detailed data are to be found in the appendix of the ‘Tourismusanalyse 2009’ page 21 ff.

> The report ‘Kreuzfahrtmarkt Deutschland 2008’ by Otto Schüssler is an annually done industry analysis on behalf of the DRV (‘Deutscher Reiseverband’). Interviewed companies were ship owners, charter companies, General Sales Agents (by order and on account of international cruise operators. Not taken to consideration were travel organisers without own ships or charter activities (just buying and selling contingents).

> For the ‘Forsa - Institute Berlin’ questionnaire were interviewed 1000 persons from the age of 14 on

Following tools will be used for this assignment

STEP analysis

A STEP (also know as PEST) analysis is used to identify the external forces (macro environment) affecting an organisation. This is a simple analysis of an organisation’s social (S), technological (T), economical (E) and technological (P) political environment.

SWOT analysis

A SWOT analysis is a method to describe how a business is doing (strategic evaluation) by examining its internal factors to be influenced by the business: strength (S), weaknesses (W) to draw the situation; and the external factors -outside of control- : opportunities (O) and threats (T) to estimate market development.

2 Theoretical frameworks

2.1 Zoning of the market

A market can be described as a system comprising two sides -demand and supply. Below this both views will be discussed: the customer’s site and the business site. This assignment deals especially with the German cruise market. The German cruise market is determined only as source market not as a destination for foreign vacationers. The analysis will be about Germans going on a cruise. It will be also talked only about ocean going cruises, river cruises won’t be taken under consideration.

On the business side will be mentioned all cruise companies offering cruises on the German market, no matter weather they have their head office in Germany or not.

Of course a German can book a cruise vacation via the www abroad, but this is the absolute minority and will be only mentioned.

2.2 Definitions


The exact definition of ocean going cruise vacations is very important to mark off an ocean cruise from a simple boat or ferry trip.

A cruise is a kind of seaside tourism with its big advantage of locomotion. A Cruise is a typical package tour on a vessel. Package tours are defined by the German Law (book of civil law within the § 651a). Characteristics of a package tour are accommodation, restauration and transportation, a whole bundle of travel performance.

According to Schäfer (1998) Cruises are roundtrips and the routing and the ports of call are fixed. Exceptions are only possible by unexpected or unplanable events like weather or security aspects or technical problems. The passenger has to spend at least one night on board. Between the port of embarkation and the port of disembarkation must be at least one port of call.

“Like some other tourism products, the cruise has three economic features:

Heterogeneity (the product possesses a broad mix of variable components that render the experience unique for the individual tourist)

Inelasticity (a cruise product is ‘perishable’ because it cannot be stored if it is not sold) and Complementarity (the cruise product is not one single service but a series of complementary services that when taken together from the cruise experience)." (Gibson, 2006, page 20)


Bieger (1997) defines a destination as a geographic space. This space is the target of the trip. All necessary facilities (accommodation, restauration, entertainment) are to be found there. The destination is the touristy commodity and therefore the competitive unit. (Bieger, 1997, S. 74)

“For the cruise industry, noting the significant changes in recent years in terms of the construction of larger vessels with enhanced facilities, the key destination can be interpreted as being the ship itself."(Gibson, 2006, page 70)

Cruise ship

A cruise ship is a ship built primarily or exclusively for cruising. The characteristics of most ships built for cruising are:

„...uniform standards of accommodation, except for some deluxe accommodation, shallow draft, usually twenty-six feet or less, built with warm-water cruising in mind, extensive areas for sun tanning...“ (Israel, 1999 page 51)

A cruise ship is an artificial built world full of exciting experiences. In addition to a classic land based destination is the big advantage of a cruise ship the possibility of locomotion.

Thus a cruise ship is a mobile touristy competitive unit.


“The term ‘terrorism’ means premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against non-combatant targets by sub national groups or clandestine agents usually intend to influence an audience. The term ‘international terrorism’ means terrorism involving the territory or the citizens of more than one country." (http://www.cia.org last seen August 02.2009)

Nowadays the term ,non-governmental wars’ is used to describe religious, ethnic or political motivated acts of violence. (Petermann, Revermann and Scherz 2006)


It is derived from the Greek word “crisis” in the meaning of ‘differentiation or decision’. Today a crisis describes a break in a continuous development. In a worse case an aggravation of the current situation. In the worst case a crisis is a dramatic and dangerous change caused by an extraordinary situation. Decisions have to been made -very often under time pressure. “The term ‘tourism crisis’ is now being used with increasing frequency by destinations whose economy has suffered from an immediate drop in visitor arrivals..." (Gee/Gain 1986, p. 3)

And even more concrete "... any occurrence which can threaten the normal operations and conduct of tourism related business; damage a tourist destination’s overall reputation for safety.. .’’(Soenmez/Backman/Allen 1994, p. 2.2)


A trend can be described as a general direction in which something tends to move. Following Romy Bittner (Bittner 2006, page 11 ) taken from the statistic way: a trend is called a basic direction of a long-term development. Trends are developments to be seen in presence one can assume to go on in future. Trends are caused by sociographic and technological developments and Bittner says trends are cultural adaptation exercises to changing circumstances. It is also stated, that every trend is occurring an anti-trend.

Some examples for trends and anti-trends:

illustration not visible in this excerpt

3 The current market situation

3.1 Introduction

“The clearest evidence yet that there is to be no turning back from the worldwide cruise industry’s expansionist route map came the day this research report went to press - February 6, 2006 - when Royal Caribbean Cruises ordered what will be the world’s largest and most expensive passenger ship.”(Preisiey 2006, p. 1)

This - known as ‘Genesis’ - project is reality already. It will start its service in autumn 2009 and will be named ‘Oasis of the seas’. This ship will be the benchmark concerning size (225,000 gross tons), the passenger capacity (5400 lower berth) and its price ($ 1.24bn)

3.2 The general market

The world cruise shipping industry faces a challenging time ahead as a number of problems continue to restrict industry growth, mainly:

- the continuing public perception of a terrorist threat;
- reluctance by some market sectors to go on fly/cruises;
- the image of cruises;
- the availability of suitable itineraries;
- opposition from environmentalist groups in certain areas;
- limited specialist port facilities;
- the continued low level of market penetration by cruises in Asia.

At the same time however, there are a number of factors that suggest the industry’s economic well being in future - these include:

- continued year-on-year passenger volume growth;
- an increasing range of cruise types and itineraries;
- the increased affordability of cruises in many key markets;
- the introduction of ever-larger cruise ships with more passenger facilities;
- continued propensity for global leisure travel;
Chapter - Page 3-7
- the changing image of cruises;
- increasing economic wealth in populous Asian economies;

3.2.1 Economic crisis

The actual economic crisis seems to be survived. Banks paying out big bonuses again and the business is going on. At present the ‘crisis’ seems to be more an excuse for mismanagement -for several braches. There is a press release from ships operator Deilmann - published at June 25, 2009- (http://www.cruise-port-warnemuende.de/content/html/default.htm last visit Aug. 13, 09): the nation was told that the river cruises made a request for creditor protection. As reason was told the general economic crisis, rising costs, fall of revenue and failure of customers. In the same range of time the Neptune Ship Yard - June 30, 2009- reported about its new building for A’rosa River Cruises and even more orders for A’rosa. (http://www.cruise-port-warnemuende.de/content/html/default.htm last visit Aug. 13, 09) Generally the cruise industry seems almost unimpressed and not directly affected by the world wide economic crisis. Some possible reasons for this are to be read in the SWOT analysis below.

3.2.2 The development from the past up to the present

Ships are used by mankind since three millennia. But only as means of transportation for goods or militaries. The history of ocean travel covers a time about 150 years. But the ship was still only a means to an end for transportation.

One story about the invention of cruising is the story about the Peninsula and Oriental Steam Navigation Company. The line, known as P&O, ran ships from Britain to Spain and Portugal and to Malay and China. On July 24th in 1844 the noted novelist William Makepeace Thackeray travelled to Malta, Greece, Constantinople, the Holy Land, and Egypt in a series of P&O ship connections. When he came back on October the 27th he published a book, ‘Diary of a Voyage from Cornhill to Grand Cairo’ which he published under the synonym Michael Angelo Titmarsh. He also told about his adventures in London’s famous ‘Reform Club’ and gave the inspiration to Jules Verne for his ‘Around the World in 80 Days’.

In 1867 Mark Twain made a voyage on board of the Quaker City- a paddle wheel steamer. He started in New York and visited -among other countries- Morocco, France, Italy, the Greek Islands, and Turkey. After six month he was back in New York. He wrote about this historic voyage in his book ‘The Innocents Abroad published in 1869.

„The current popularity of cruise travel can probably be traced to those original ideas articulated by Twain- that cruise travel is relatively hassle free because you pack and unpack once, it’s safe, and you can make new friends. Twain’s notion of cruising as a grand picnic suggests the non-stop, diverse festivities (dining, dancing, entertainment, etc.) that characterize today’s cruises. “ (Dickinson, Vladimir 1996 page 3)

In the early twentieth-century ocean travel was dominated by immigrant traffic from Europe to America and Australia. People still used the ship as a means of transportation.

The main problem of popularizing ocean travel was the ocean itself. Many people wanted to forget that they were at sea. The English architect Arthur Davis -designer of the great Cunard Liners- said it in 1907: „ The people who use ships are not pirates, the do not dance hornpipes; they are mostly sea sick American ladies, and the one thing they want to forget when they are on the vessel is that they are on a ship at allIf we could get ships to look inside like ships, and get people to enjoy the sea it would be a very good thing; but all we can do as things are is to give them gigantic floating hotels. “ (Dickinson, Vladimir 1996 page 6)

In the 1920s the United States stopped their open-door immigration policy. The Great depression, began in 1929, did the rest to produce losses for many cruise companies. To minimize the overcapacity and the loss in transatlantic business some companies created short ‘cheap drinking’ cruises from the United States to Nova Scotia, Nassau, and Bermuda. This was a possibility to sail round the prohibition in the United States. Ocean going for pleasure was created and the ship design was needed to be changed. There was a need for air conditioning and a change in the dark, enclosed design without sunbathing, swimming, and other resort-type activities was necessary too. The design changed to warm-water-cruise-liners according the definition in the beginning. In 1958 Pan American offered the first non-stop transatlantic crossing flight with its Boeing 707. The first commercial jet plane crossed the Atlantic. For transportation a plane was much more efficient, and with the invention of jet engine payable too. And the big ocean liners had suddenly overcapacity again. „This seminal event effectively sounded the death knell for the transatlantic steamship business. “ (Dickinson, Vladimir 1996 page 22)

The traditional business of ocean liners where taken over by jet planes. Many companies went bankrupt. But some companies survived with an idea: shipping around just for pleasure, relaxation and vacation. With the beginning of mass tourism a new idea was born: cruising. The idea from the end of the 1920’ has developed.

In 1977 an event popularized the idea of cruising as a mass-market vacation for every cruise ship afloat at the time. Aaron Spelling Productions, a television production company, had the idea to use a cruise ship as a set for a TV series. „The Love Boat“attracted a worldwide audience and caused a big public-relation increase for the whole cruise industry. „The Love Boat“was produced for ten and a half years and is still popular all over the world.

In 1981 in the German TV (ZDF) was broadcasted a story about a cruise ship (MV ‘Vistafjord’) calling the port of Nassau (Bahamas). Following the idea of the “Love Boat” -the German “Traumschiff” was born. Telling stories about happy, unconcerned people on board of a luxury ocean liner, visiting exotic places. The spectator at home gets into dreaming about being there. Since then 27 series where broadcasted up to now.

Up to today cruising lost even the image to be for the rich and old society. Since then the cruise industry increased its business constantly and since the millennium the industry is booming.

There is a competition in who has the biggest ship or the highest capacity. Forecasts telling that there will be an ongoing increase within the market. And therefore there is a big competition for market share.

The following graph shows the development and some out pointed numbers:

illustration not visible in this excerpt

Chart 1 ‘passengers’ (http://www.iccl.org 21.04.2005)

Graphic 1 ‘pax development’ (http://europe.oceana.org/images/cruiseships3.jpg 10.06.2005)

illustration not visible in this excerpt

3.2.3 Short term developments

“A significant trend of the cruise industry over the period in which it has blossomed has been the move away from operational management by traditional ship-owners, first to specialist cruise-ship operators and more recently to companies that are predominantly leisure-industry-based.’’ (Williams 2001, page 21) Not the ‘marine’ side, the ‘hotel’ side of the business makes the revenue. So more and more leisure-industry based companies getting involved with their background in hotel management, entertainment and tourism; just to name a few: Disney, Seabourn, Radisson and Thomas Cook. Modern new management terms -like yield-management- were taken over -mainly from airlines.

Because of the forecast about the market development and the booming number of passengers there is a big competition for market share. Within the competition for market share image and prestige is very important. So the competitors must bring bigger, more luxury, modern and more innovative vessels on the market. If they don’t do so, they will lose market share. Result of this ‘arms race’: companies went bankrupt or were bought in. And within the next 5 years the total passenger capacity of the world fleet of cruise ships will be more than twice as high as today.

According to the ‘ShipPax market08 Report’ (http://www.european-cruise- academy.com/kreuzfahrtindustrie. 17895.0.html last seen July 26, 2009) in January 2007 were 383 cruise vessels operated and 37 new buildings were on order. All in all there is a capacity about more than 425,000 berths. To save costs the average size of the ships is increasing too. In 2000 the average capacity was around 1770 berths per ship; this capacity is growing up to approximately 3000 berths in 2010. The worldwide number of passengers will increase from 15 million in 2006 up to 25 million in 2015. This is an average growth rate about 6%. Oasis

Already mentioned in the introduction, the ‘Oasis of the seas’ is the benchmark concerning size, price and multi-optional cruise tourism. Entertainment and adventurous excitements are beyond some ones imagination.

“Our imagination and innovation has no boundaries. For us a ship isn’t just a ship, but rather, a collection of amazing experiences that challenge all limitations. Oasis of the Seas and Allure of the Seas exemplify how we continue to break the mold time and again - and how we undertake new endeavours. Quickly, the impossible becomes possible and the unimaginable becomes real; entertainment areas become neighbourhoods and suites become lofts. We are Royal Caribbean International® and we build incredible.”

(http://www.oasisoftheseas.com/ebrochures.php last seen Aug. 14, 2009)

This will be the world’s state of the art from fall 2009 on:

illustration not visible in this excerpt

Graphic 2 ‘Oasis’ (http://www.oasisoftheseas.com/ebrochures.php last seen Aug. 14, 2009)

3.2.4 Tourism analysis 2009

The donation for future aspects (Stiftung für Zukunftsfragen) under leadership of Professor H. W. Opaschowski publishes annually an analysis of the German tourism. In the following some topic related facts taken from the actual tourism analysis 2009. The lasting of holiday trips is becoming shorter. There are different reasons to be named: one is the ongoing transition to flexible working hours. Another side is the economic situation, the Germans want to go travelling and when they can’t afford a three-week trip, they safe money and make it only two or less weeks.

illustration not visible in this excerpt

Graphic 3 ‘Lasting of Trips’ (Opaschowski Tourismusanalyse 2009, page 8)

Ten years ago the travel market started to get cheaper and cheaper with the offer of discount flights. Thus raised the flight travelling and made it affordable to almost everybody. Nowadays there is a change to be seen back to homeland travelling.

illustration not visible in this excerpt

Graphic 4 ‘near by’ (Opaschowski Tourismusanalyse 2009, page 10)

Various reasons are causing this development. One is of course the 9/11 and the gaining danger of world wide terrorism. Also the awareness of pandemics (SARS, Bird Flu, Swin Flu, Aids...) plays nowadays a role in deciding where to go. The raising danger of natural disasters world wide (Tsunami, rain, storm, flood, forest fire) plays a role in decision making too. The budget of money and time and certified, observed quality and highest standards in hygiene are some more aspects.

illustration not visible in this excerpt

Graphic 5 ‘Targets’ (Opaschowski Tourismusanalyse 2009, page 20)

The main targets in travelling abroad are still Spain, Italy and Turkey. This correlates with the main reason for travelling in Germany: following the sun.

illustration not visible in this excerpt

Graphic 6 ‘Actions’ (Opaschowski Tourismusanalyse 2009, page 17)

3.2.5 The German cruise market 2008

The German cruise market is on the third place in the world, only the British (second best) and the North American market (Canada and US) on the first position are performing better. The 906,620 passengers spend in 2008 on 26 various -in Germany offered- cruise vessels € 199 per day (all spendings included) for their vacation. They generated total revenue about € 1.7billion. More detailed facts are to be found in chapter 3.4. ‘the business site’.

3.2.6 Distribution channels

In general the e-tourism is an enormous part of the e-commerce. According to Egger (2007, page 436) the European online travel market has grown from € 200 million in 1998 to € 38.3 billion in 2006. Airlines generate their main part (56 %) online. Lodging companies (16 %) and package tours (16%) share the second rank in Europe.

The German cruise e-tourism looks a little different:

Travel agencies are the most important distribution channels for cruises. Travel agents have generated last year (2008) 88.7% of all cruise bookings. The part of direct marketing has grown a little (+1.1%) to 6.8% and the part of internet bookings was constant at 4.5%.

illustration not visible in this excerpt

Graphic 7 ,Distribution Channels’ (selfmade by data taken from Schüssler ‘Der Kreuzfahrtmarkt in Deutschland 2008’ page 20)

This is not correlating with the general development. A questionnaire requested by BITKOM and done by Forsa - Institute Berlin (http://portal.gmx.net/de/themen/reise/reisetipps/8387584-Jeder-Sechste-bucht- seinen-Sommerurlaub-online,pd=1.html last seen June 23, 2009) showed that 6 out of 10 interviewed persons planning to book via internet. The age group between 30 and 44 years is the group which is mostly using the internet for booking a journey (24%).

Probability the average age of cruise vacationers (49.7 years) is the reason; this age group is not representing the heavy users of new media but growing very fast.

illustration not visible in this excerpt

Chart 2 ‘age groups’ According to http://www.initiatived21.de/category/nonliner-atlas/zentrale-ergebnisse-2009 last seen August 27, 2009)

3.3 Customers site

3.3.1 Demographics

Demography is a scientific discipline, which determines the changes of population conditions. The population existing can only grow or shrink, whereby an expansive development is only caused by the events birth / immigration or a contractive development by death / migration. As demographic principal equation it can be described:

P (t) - P (t-1) = B - D + M

P (t) - P (t-1) ~ changes of the population between (t-1) and (t)

B ~ birth between (t-1) and (t)

D ~ deceases between (t-1) and (t)

M ~ migration balance between (t-1) and (t)

The Federal Statistical Office gives following values for the year 2007. Altogether approximately 88.2 million people live in Germany. Out of that approximately 74.9 million were Germans, thus live approximately 7.3 million foreigners in the federal territory. The age group of 60 years and older has a portion of more than 25% of total population. They are just as strongly represented as the 20 - 40 years old ones. The second largest group within the population of Germany is the group of the 40 - 60 years old ones (30.3%).

illustration not visible in this excerpt

Graphic 8 ‘Populaton by age groups’ (selfmade by data taken from http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet last seen on August 01, 2009)

In graphic 9 - below - it is clearly shown that the radical demographic change is not only a ghost of the future, but an already for a long time present phenomenon.

illustration not visible in this excerpt

Graphic 9 ,Daten, Fakten, Trends zum demographischen Wandel 1’ i(n Deutschland, 2008“ page 9 -Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung- last seen July 30, 2009 on http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/DE/Navigation/Publikationen/Broschueren/Broschueren.psml)

Parts of the characteristics of the German population structure can be explained, like:

> The woman surplus in the higher age groups - under the losses during World War Two,

> Strong indentations within the middle 50’- and 60’- ager's - missing birth during both world wars

> Since the 1970’s the birth rate is stagnating and falling because of the introduction of the birth control pill and changes in social life

> the dramatic political changes in 1989 (German reunion)

illustration not visible in this excerpt

Graphic 10 ‚Daten, Fakten, Trends zum demographischen Wandel 2’ (in Deutschland, 2008’ (page 25 -Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung- last seen July 30, 2009 on http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/DE/Navigation/Publikationen/Broschueren/Broschueren.psml)

The birth-rate is quite constant around 1.4 children per woman. For a self-contained reproduction of the German population is a birth-rate about at least 2.1 needed. The average age of the German population is approximately 42 years.


Excerpt out of 98 pages


A Cruise into the Future
How could the german cruise market look like in 2025?
Stralsund University of Applied Sciences
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Kreuzfahrt, Cruise, Schiffsreise, Urlaub, Kreuzfahrten, Traumschiff, seetourismus, zukunft, future, entwicklung, development, marktentwicklung, kreuzfahrtmarkt, aida, deutschland
Quote paper
Maik Roemer (Author), 2009, A Cruise into the Future, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/161010


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