This paper offers an ontological response to the empirically observed U-shaped trajectory of consumer confidence, as mapped by Matt Rocklage, Jonah Berger, and Reihane Boghrati (2025). While their research highlights a robust pattern where confidence initially dips before exhibiting a steep rebound with increased experience, this paper reinterprets the accelerating late-stage confidence recovery. Building on Learnable Theory (Magni, Marchetti & Alharbi, 2023, 2024) and the principles of Generative Leadership of Meanings (Magni, Marchetti & Alharbi, forthcoming), I hypothesise that the steep rise in expert confidence is not merely a reflection of superior cognitive mastery. Rather, it results from a compounded dynamic: cognitive closure and systematic bias shaped by the internalisation of specialised linguistic frameworks—which come with “umbra cones”. Umbra cones are structured semantic blind spots—originally intentional occlusions that obscure alternative interpretations and reinforce dominant explanatory patterns. As experts master domain-specific vocabulary, grammar, and metaphorical systems, they enhance their ability to explain and predict within that framework. However, this same linguistic specialisation narrows their perceived cognitive horizon, reducing subjective uncertainty and driving a rapid, exponential-like increase in confidence. Notably, the exponential growth in certainty observed in the referenced study appears to corroborate this hypothesis. It suggests that expert confidence is not simply a function of accumulating objective knowledge but rather emerges from symbolic processes of meaning construction—anchored in linguistic constraints that systematically exclude competing perspectives.
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- Luca Magni (Autor), 2025, The Confident Closure: Do Specialised Jargon and Umbra Cones Shape Consumer Certainty?, Múnich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/1641955
