The Impact of Road Traffic Accident on Economic Growth in Ethiopia

Table of Contents

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION
1. Background of the Study
1.1 Problem statement
1.2 Objective of the study
1.3 Research question:-
1.4 Significance of research

CHAPTER TWO
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Traffic accident globally
2.2 Traffic Accident in Ethiopia
2.3 Transport and Economic growth
2.4 The risk factors for road traffic accident
2.5 Researcher knowledge gap

CHAPTER THREE
3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1. Research Approach
3.2. Sampling Design
3.3. Variables in the Study
3.4. Model Specification Test
3.5. Classical Linear Regression Assumptions and tests
3.6. Data Analysis Technique

CHAPTER FOUR
4. STUDY PLAN
4.1. Time Breakdown (Schedule)
4.2. Logistics
4.2.1. Stationary and Related costs

References

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1. Background of the Study

Road traffic accident is the cause of public health and development crisis. Road traffic accident is also expected to increase in Ethiopia if road safety is not addressed adequately by government. According to world health organization(WHO) globally, the number of people killed in road traffic crashes each year is estimated to be 1.2 million, while the number injured could be as high as 50 million the combined population of five of the world’s large cities (WHO, 2018). The tragedy behind these figures regularly attracts less media attention than other, less frequent but more unusual types of tragedy without increased efforts and new initiatives, the total number of road traffic deaths worldwide and injuries is forecast to rise by some 65% between 2000 and 2020 (WHO, 2018), and in low-income and middle-income countries deaths are expected to increase by as much as 80%. The majority of such deaths are currently among vulnerable road users: - including pedestrians, pedal cyclists and motorcyclists. In high-income countries, deaths among car occupants continue to be predominant, but the risks per capita that vulnerable road users face are high.

This is the first major report on road injury prevention jointly issued by the WHO and the World Bank, and underscores the concern that the two bodies share about the detrimental impact of an unsafe road transport system on public health and global development. It is the contention of the report, first, that the level of road deaths and injuries is unacceptable, and second, that it is to a large extent avoidable.

A number of countries that have seen success in reducing road traffic deaths over the last few years, but progress varies significantly between the different regions and countries of the world. There continues to be a strong association between the risk of a road traffic death and the income level of countries. With an average rate of 27.5 deaths per 100,000 populations, the risk of a road traffic death is more than three times higher in low-income countries than in high-income countries where the average rate is 8.3 deaths per 100,000 populations (WHO, 2018). According to the latest WHO data published in 2017 Road Traffic Accidents Deaths in Ethiopia reached 27,140 or 4.27% of total deaths. The age adjusted Death Rate is 36.36 per 100,000 of population ranks Ethiopia 22nd in the world. Therefore, this study attempts to examine the impact of traffic accident on economic growth in Ethiopia.

1.1 Problem statement

Road Traffic accidents (RTAs) as a result of road traffic crashes (RTCs) rank as the leading cause of death, disability and property loss globally, especially in low and middle-income countries. Satar R, et.al. (2014) assessed based on aim of analyzing the costs of road transport crashes in Iran. A standard human capital approach was used to estimate the costs. Costs included medical, administrative and funeral costs, property damage, production lost and intangible costs. Data about the number of deaths and injuries resulting from RTIs between 20 March 2009 and 20 March 2010 was obtained from two national databases designed at the Center for Disaster Management and Medical Emergencies (CDMME) and the Legal Medicine Organization (LMO), respectively. The severity and medical costs of injuries were identified by reviewing 400 medical records that were selected randomly from patients who were admitted to two large trauma centers in Shariati and Sina hospitals in Tehran province. Moreover, information about production lost, property damage, rehabilitation cost, intangible costs and administration costs were collected by review of current evidence and consulting with expert opinion. In total 806,922 RTIs and 22,974 deaths resulted from the RTCs in the study period. The total cost of RTCs was about 72,465 billion Rails (7.2 billion US Dollars), which amounts to 2.19% of Iran’s Gross Domestic Production (GDP). Direct costs were 3,516 billion Rials (around 48.6 % of the total costs), following by 24,785 billion Rials (around 34.2 % of the total costs) for production lost and 12,513 billion Rails (around 17.2 % of the total costs) for intangible costs. The Greg C. (2009) conducted study to intend to update the status, trends, causes, existing countermeasure, and issues in traffic safety, facing African countries. It is the hope of the author that the finding could stimulate discussion and to inform policy makers in traffic safety policy formation. The study reviews articles published in major scientific journals, internal reports by government and institutions, as well as articles published on the Web. The journals and the internet were searched for the last 12 years, starting from 1998, dovetailing the last comprehensive literature review by Oredo (1997). Key search engines are used in the search, in addition to journal specific investigations. Journals from diverse disciplines, such as traffic safety, injury prevention, medicine, economics, public health and general social science, as well as localized journals in African countries are reviewed, recognizing the multi-disciplinary nature of the field and potential special local issues that are unique to the Continent. The articles are assessed for relevance and validity, although most of identified relevant articles are used, given the limited number of published studies (Greg, 2009). The study reveals that African countries are facing serious challenges in traffic safety. For example, recent statistics show that more than 100 people die in road traffic crashes per 10,000 vehicles in Tanzania and Ghana, compared to the 1.7 fatalities per 10,000 vehicles in the US. The fatalities will nearly double in two decades between 2000 and 2020 if major action is not undertaken. The review identified a set of factors, similar to those in motorized countries, which contribute to traffic crashes and injury. Human behavior and incapacitation as a group account for more than 85% of the factors reported by police. Not similar to developed countries, traffic casualties are primarily born by vulnerable road users in Africa. Pedestrians alone account for more than 40% of total fatalities on African roads. Limited countermeasures are reported in the literature. The evaluations of these programs are mixed and the research methods used have questionable validity. Many African countries are facing challenges in their effort to improve traffic safety. These include, but not limited to, the lack of data, research, leading agency/organization, in a culture that are somewhat fatalistic and in the economies that are, for the most part, stagnant (Greg, 2009). Amanuel K., (2017) assessed the trends, causes, and costs of road traffic accidents in Ethiopia. Despite efforts made by various stakeholders to reduce the massacre on Ethiopian roads, road traffic accidents have been a serious health development issue in the country. The essay used data on road traffic accidents in Ethiopia for the period 2006 –2015. Data were obtained from Federal Police Commission and Federal Road Authority and analyzed using descriptive statistics. The study found that at national level, on average road traffic injuries are increasing from year to year where Oromia regional state is the major contributor of total fatalities occurred in the past decade. On the other hand, Addis Ababa city administration is found as a major contributor of serious and slight injuries as well as property damages. The study showed that alike any developing countries, pedestrians and passengers are found to be the most vulnerable and hardest hit segment of road users. The finding also showed that male road users who are in their productive age group are disproportionately affected by road traffic injuries. Human errors (mainly drivers’ behavior and actions) are found as the major cause of road traffic accident in Ethiopia. So as to reduce fatalities and injuries on Ethiopian roads, the essay recommends that road safety policy and law enforcement; capacity building, education, and awareness creation; and cooperation and integration between and/or among all transport stakeholders should be the focus of Ethiopian government.

As study conducted on road traffic accident and safety evaluation case of Addis Ababa Bole Sub City by Dawit O (2016), the study uses GIS based black spot identification schemes that employs five distinct scientific principles namely: accident frequency, accident rate, empirical Bayesian, critical accident and accident prediction models. A total of 31 sections of road and 9 junctions were studied using primary and secondary data. Out of the methods, empirical Bayesian proved superiority so that much of the conclusion was based on this method (Dawit O, 2016). As the researcher was identified possible solutions are identified using traffic signs, user awareness campaigns, policy revisions, and permanent geometry and pavement modifications. Earlier study conducted by Feleke H, et.al. (2015) on assessing magnitude and outcome of road traffic accidents among trauma victims at hospitals in Wolaita zone. A cross sectional hospital based study design using retrospective chart review was conducted from March 5th to March 25th, 2014. Simple random sampling technique was applied to identify sample population. The researcher employed primary data source and tool for analysis was SPSS. The finding of this study indicated that 384 trauma victims were incorporated in the study of which 240 (62.5%) were due to road traffic accidents. The majority of patients were male 298 (77.6%) and most commonly aged between 20 and 29 (35.42%). The principal outcome of injury was more commonly lower extremity (182 patients, 47.4%), compared to upper extremity (126 patients, 32.8%). Fesseha H, et.al... (2012) assessed the main causes and consequences of road traffic accidents in Amhara Region. This descriptive study employed secondary data collected by Amhara National Regional State Police Commission from 2007-2011. To conduct these study the finding of this study reveals that almost half (51%) of all crashes involved freight vehicles followed by passenger vehicles which constitute one-third (34.5%) of all the accidents. Over half (54.8%) of the accidents occurred on interstate highways. Passengers accounted for the largest share of road traffic deaths across the region and pedestrians were the main victims in the urban areas. Errors committed by drivers are the chief causes of the accidents, such as failure to give priority to pedestrians, speeding, failure to stay on the right side of the road, failure to maintain distance between vehicles and failure to yield the right of way for other vehicles. Overall, these factors accounted for 83.8% of all traffic accidents. Based on the researcher knowledge there is thus an urgent need to recognize the risk condition in road deaths and injuries and to take appropriate action. Road traffic accident prevention and mitigation should be given the same attention and scale of resources that is currently paid to other prominent health issues if increasing human loss and accident on the roads, with their devastating human impact and large economic cost to society, are to be averted. To address solution for this situation on conducting this study on impact of traffic accident on economic growth in Ethiopia will play great role in Ethiopia economy. There were several studies conducted in Ethiopia on traffic accident in Ethiopia such as Dawit (2016), Feleke, et.al. (2015) and Fesseha, et.al. (2012). Based on researcher knowledge none of studies were conducting impact analysis of traffic accident on economic growth in Ethiopia, there was weakness of methodology on study period, sample selection and previous studies conducted employed cross-sectional data but to get reliable evidence and to evaluate the risk of traffic accident on economic growth and human loss and cause of road traffic accident depending on time variance with different study area consideration to scientific solution on the problem of the risk situation of road traffic accident in Ethiopia were appropriate. To address such pervious study gap through using panel data for 17 years in four study area and illuminating methodological weakness through model identification appropriate economic and econometric model of study as well as more evidence based data source and Moreover this study will identify the key risk factors to road traffic accident to address economic impact of traffic accident and by visualizing the trend of road traffic accident in Ethiopia.

1.2 Objective of the study

The main objective of the study is to examine the impact of road traffic accident on economic growth

The specific objectives of the study are:

- To explain the trend of road traffic accident in Ethiopia
- To analyze the effects of socio-economic factors on road traffic accident in Ethiopia
- To examine the effect of risk factor on road traffic accident
- To investigate the effect of road traffic accident on economic growth in Ethiopia

1.3 Research question:-

At the end of this study researcher will answers the following question.

- What is the trend of road traffic accident on economic growth in Ethiopia?
- How was the effect of risk factor on road traffic accident in the study period?
- To What extent the effects of socio-economic factors on road traffic accident in Ethiopia?
- What is the effect of road traffic accident on economic growth in Ethiopia?

1.4 Significance of research

This study will help in identifying the impact of traffic accident on economic growth in Ethiopia. More specifically the study has values for the following bodies with their relevant significance. To create awareness among policy designers, decision makers, to indicate managerial direction for the transport authority and traffic management pertaining to the impact of the traffic accident on economic growth; and, to obtain information, knowledge and experience that may serve to reduce the risk of road traffic accident in the Ethiopia. Moreover, it may be able to serve as a reference for those who are going to carry out further study in this field in depth and as a reading material who are interested to.

CHAPTER TWO

2. LITERATURE REVIEW

This subsection of the study shows that the reviewed globally and local previous studies. The chapter include traffic accident globally, traffic accident in Ethiopia level, transport and economic growth, road traffic accident and economic growth, the risk factors of road traffic accident and researcher knowledge gap.

2.1 Traffic accident globally

Both the World Bank and the World Health Organization, in independent studies, have calculated that, worldwide, there are around 500,000 fatalities and 15 million injuries per annum as a result of road accidents. Earlier estimates also suggest that about sixty percent of these deaths and injuries take place in those countries of Africa and Asia which are classified by the World Bank as low or middle income (World Bank, 1990 and Yerrell, 1992). To assess the validity of these estimates, and whether there has been any change, the number of global fatalities by region have been calculated using 1992/93 data. Using data from a number of detailed studies, it has been suggested that the level of under reporting of road accident fatalities in LDCS is at least twenty percent (Sayer and Hitchcock, 1984). Similar studies by James (1991) discovered that under-reporting in industrialized countries is in the order of 6 percent. The data on fatalities have been adjusted to take into account underreporting. The Greg C. (2009) conducted study to intend to update the status, trends, causes, existing countermeasure, and issues in traffic safety, facing African countries. It is the hope of the author that the finding could stimulate discussion and to inform policy makers in traffic safety policy formation. The study reviews articles published in major scientific journals, internal reports by government and institutions, as well as articles published on the Web. The journals and the internet were searched for the last 12 years, starting from 1998, dovetailing the last comprehensive literature review by Oredo (1997). Key search engines are used in the search, in addition to journal specific investigations. Journals from diverse disciplines, such as traffic safety, injury prevention, medicine, economics, public health and general social science, as well as localized journals in African countries are reviewed, recognizing the multi-disciplinary nature of the field and potential special local issues that are unique to the Continent. The articles are assessed for relevance and validity, although most of identified relevant articles are used, given the limited number of published studies (Greg, 2009). The study reveals that African countries are facing serious challenges in traffic safety. For example, recent statistics show that more than 100 people die in road traffic crashes per 10,000 vehicles in Tanzania and Ghana, compared to the 1.7 fatalities per 10,000 vehicles in the US. The fatalities will nearly double in two decades between 2000 and 2020 if major action is not undertaken. The review identified a set of factors, similar to those in motorized countries, which contribute to traffic crashes and injury. Human behavior and incapacitation as a group account for more than 85% of the factors reported by police. Not similar to developed countries, traffic casualties are primarily born by vulnerable road users in Africa. Pedestrians alone account for more than 40% of total fatalities on African roads. Limited countermeasures are reported in the literature. The evaluations of these programs are mixed and the research methods used have questionable validity. Many African countries are facing challenges in their effort to improve traffic safety. These include, but not limited to, the lack of data, research, leading agency/organization, in a culture that are somewhat fatalistic and in the economies that are, for the most part, stagnant (Greg, 2009).

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